# OptimaGoal (https://optimagoal.com)

> OptimaGoal publishes quantitative football (soccer) and NBA predictions, calibrated win/draw/loss probabilities, cross-league Club Elo ratings, NBA team power ratings, and an audited public track record in English, Spanish, Portuguese, and Turkish.

Generated: 2026-11-13T08:26:28.022993+00:00
Full LLM Data Snapshot: https://optimagoal.com/llms-full.txt

## Core Methodology & Verification
- **Football Model**: Cross-league Club Elo ratings combined with recent attacking/defensive form, schedule rest, and competition context, calibrated via walk-forward out-of-sample testing.
- **NBA Model**: Team power and pace ratings combined with player-level rotation values, updated after the official NBA injury report before tip-off.
- **Strict Audit Policy**: Every pre-match prediction is timestamped before kick-off/tip-off and graded publicly against the final result on `/results/` and `/nba/results/`.
- **Verified Football Benchmark (since 2026-10-09)**: 791 settled matches, 58.7% 1X2 hit rate, log loss 0.943 (vs 1.049 league base-rate benchmark), Brier score 0.556.
- **National Team Model**: A separate national-team model using Glicko ratings with confederation offsets, venue context, and an ensemble of gradient-boosted trees and rating-based probabilities. Club benchmarks do not measure national-team performance.
- [National Team Elo Ratings](https://optimagoal.com/elo-ratings/national/): 217 national teams, confederation strength and 30-day rating changes.

## Primary Canonical Pages
- [Home — Upcoming Football Predictions](https://optimagoal.com/): Daily match predictions and previews across 19 competitions.
- [Cross-League Club Elo Ratings](https://optimagoal.com/elo-ratings/): Live global football club ratings, 30-day changes, and league strength averages.
- [Football Top 5 Confident Picks](https://optimagoal.com/top-5/): Highest-confidence 1X2 picks with historical and live list accuracy.
- [Football Prediction Track Record & Results](https://optimagoal.com/results/): Complete market-by-market accuracy and daily settled match archive.
- [How Our Model Works & Calibration Data](https://optimagoal.com/how-it-works/): Full mathematical explanation, log-loss benchmark, and probability calibration table.
- [All Covered Football Competitions](https://optimagoal.com/competitions/): Standings, top scorers, upcoming fixtures, and season projections.
- [All Covered Football Clubs](https://optimagoal.com/teams/): Club Elo ratings, form, schedules, and recent results.
- [Value Bets & Audited Unit Tracker](https://optimagoal.com/value-bets/): Quantitative edge tracker comparing model probabilities to fair odds.

## NBA Quantitative Coverage
- [NBA Hub — Game Predictions & Previews](https://optimagoal.com/nba/): Daily NBA game picks after the official injury report.
- [NBA Team Power Ratings](https://optimagoal.com/nba/ratings/): Net point ratings on a neutral court and pace ranks for all 30 NBA franchises.
- [NBA Standings](https://optimagoal.com/nba/standings/): Eastern and Western Conference standings, streaks, and home/road splits.
- [NBA Top 5 Picks](https://optimagoal.com/nba/top-5/): Daily highest-confidence NBA winner selections.
- [NBA Results & Accuracy Audit](https://optimagoal.com/nba/results/): Settled NBA predictions and market accuracy.

## Covered Football Competitions
- [Premier League (ENG)](https://optimagoal.com/premier-league/)
- [Championship (ENG)](https://optimagoal.com/championship/)
- [LaLiga (ESP)](https://optimagoal.com/laliga/)
- [Bundesliga (GER)](https://optimagoal.com/bundesliga/)
- [Serie A (ITA)](https://optimagoal.com/serie-a/)
- [Ligue 1 (FRA)](https://optimagoal.com/ligue-1/)
- [Süper Lig (TUR)](https://optimagoal.com/super-lig/)
- [Eredivisie (NED)](https://optimagoal.com/eredivisie/)
- [Liga Portugal (POR)](https://optimagoal.com/liga-portugal/)
- [Belgian Pro League (BEL)](https://optimagoal.com/belgian-pro-league/)
- [Champions League (INT)](https://optimagoal.com/champions-league/)
- [Europa League (INT)](https://optimagoal.com/europa-league/)
- [Conference League (INT)](https://optimagoal.com/conference-league/)
- [Brasileirão Série A (BRA)](https://optimagoal.com/brasileirao-serie-a/)
- [Liga MX (MEX)](https://optimagoal.com/liga-mx/)
- [MLS (USA)](https://optimagoal.com/mls/)
- [Copa Libertadores (INT)](https://optimagoal.com/copa-libertadores/)
- [Copa Sudamericana (INT)](https://optimagoal.com/copa-sudamericana/)
- [UEFA Nations League (UEFA)](https://optimagoal.com/uefa-nations-league/)

## Languages
- English: https://optimagoal.com/
- Español: https://optimagoal.com/es/
- Português: https://optimagoal.com/pt/
- Türkçe: https://optimagoal.com/tr/