Bundesliga · Matchday 6 Match report

Hamburger SV 1-0 VfB Stuttgart: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Hamburger SV

1-0Full time

VfB Stuttgart

Saturday 17 October 2026, 13:30 UTC Volksparkstadion, Hamburg

Our picks against the result

6 of 13 right

Result VfB Stuttgart win50% 1-0
Double chance VfB Stuttgart or draw (X2)76% 1-0
Both teams to score Yes62% No
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.563% 1 goal
More corners VfB Stuttgart59% VfB Stuttgart (5-9)
Yellow cards Around average 3 yellow cards · league 3.4
Yellow cards 3 yellow cards 3.5 Under50% 4.5 Under70% 5.5 Under84%
Corners Around average 14 corners · league 10.8
Corners 14 corners 8.5 Over67% 9.5 Over57% 10.5 Under54%

Match stats

Hamburger SV VfB Stuttgart

1 Goals 0
3 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
5 Corners 9

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

The Bundesliga brings us Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart on Saturday 17 October 2026, Matchday 6, and our model calls it for a VfB Stuttgart win, with VfB Stuttgart win or draw as our double chance.

Why this pick?

VfB Stuttgart are our pick to win at the Volksparkstadion, mainly because our strength ratings separate the sides: they sit clearly above the Bundesliga average while Hamburger SV are clearly below it. The strongest counter-argument is home advantage, which weighs moderately, and Hamburg have won two of their five league games. Yet Stuttgart arrive off wins at Paderborn and in the Champions League at Slovan Bratislava, while Hamburg have conceded fifteen goals in five Bundesliga games, including two five-goal defeats. Across the whole picture, the case for the away win clearly outweighs the one against it. The call is a moderate one.

Both teams to score: Both teams to score also appeals to our model: Stuttgart's attack is far above the Bundesliga average, and Hamburg's defence concedes more than most, with home advantage adding to the case. Stuttgart's defence concedes fewer than average, which is the main note of caution.

Form guide

Hamburger SV

W 3-2 at Hoffenheim (A) Bundesliga · 10 Oct
W 2-1 vs 1. FC Köln (H) Bundesliga · 19 Sep
L 0-5 at RB Leipzig (A) Bundesliga · 13 Sep
L 0-5 vs Mainz 05 (H) Bundesliga · 6 Sep
L 0-2 at Borussia Dortmund (A) Bundesliga · 29 Aug

VfB Stuttgart

W 3-0 at Slovan Bratislava (A) Champions League · 14 Oct
W 2-0 at Paderborn (A) Bundesliga · 10 Oct
L 0-1 vs Borussia Dortmund (H) Bundesliga · 19 Sep
L 1-2 at Hoffenheim (A) Bundesliga · 12 Sep
W 3-1 vs Viking (H) Champions League · 9 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Hamburger SVVfB Stuttgart

Attack 29 82 1.0 goals per match this season1.6 goals per match this season

Defence 24 76 3.0 conceded per match this season1.8 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Bundesliga clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.