Our 5 most confident picks
What is this?
Each list holds up to 5 matches our model is surest about, at 60% or more, among those starting between 2 and 48 hours after it is published. A new list follows every 46 hours, so every match belongs to exactly one list, and every pick stays on this page with its result.
List #11
- Pick 1
Roma4 
Cagliari2 Roma win 73% Right - Pick 2
Venezia 
Inter Inter win 70% To play - Pick 3
CF América 
Tijuana CF América win 64% To play - Pick 4
Minnesota United 
Sporting Kansas City Minnesota United win 64% To play - Pick 5
RB Bragantino 
Chapecoense RB Bragantino win 63% To play
Times are UTC.
11lists published
73%right of 49 settled picks
5lists with at most one wrong pick
3perfect lists (every pick right)
Previous lists
#10 3/5
#9 5/5
- Pick 1
Union St.Gilloise5 
Cercle Brugge2 Union St.Gilloise win 79% Right - Pick 2
Arsenal2 
Everton0 Arsenal win 76% Right - Pick 3
Atlético Madrid1 
Deportivo A Coruña0 Atlético Madrid win 74% Right - Pick 4
Wolverhampton Wanderers1 
Watford0 Wolverhampton Wanderers win 73% Right - Pick 5
Freiburg1 
Bayern München3 Bayern München win 70% Right
#8 3/5
- Pick 1
Ferencváros4 
Torreense1 Ferencváros win 79% Right - Pick 2
Jablonec0 
Brighton & Hove Albion0 Brighton & Hove Albion win 75% Wrong - Pick 3
OFI Crete0 
Bayer Leverkusen2 Bayer Leverkusen win 75% Right - Pick 4
Lincoln Red Imps FC1 
FC Twente4 FC Twente win 73% Right - Pick 5
VfB Stuttgart2 
Borussia Mönchengladbach3 VfB Stuttgart win 72% Wrong
#7 4/5
#6 1/3
#5 5/5
#4 5/5
- Pick 1 Brighton & Hove Albion4
FK Kauno Žalgiris0 Brighton & Hove Albion win 91% Right - Pick 2
Brann2 Lincoln Red Imps FC1 Brann win 86% Right - Pick 3
Rennes2 OFI Crete1 Rennes win 84% Right - Pick 4
St.Truiden2 
Iberia 19990 St.Truiden win 83% Right - Pick 5
AFC Bournemouth3 
Sturm Graz0 AFC Bournemouth win 81% Right
#3 2/5
#2 4/5
#1 3/5
- Pick 1
PSV Eindhoven2 
SC Heerenveen0 PSV Eindhoven win 73% Right - Pick 2
Galatasaray3 
Kasımpaşa1 Galatasaray win 73% Right - Pick 3
West Ham United1 
Queens Park Rangers1 West Ham United win 70% Wrong - Pick 4 Arsenal2
Leeds United1 Arsenal win 70% Right - Pick 5
Borussia Dortmund2 
Werder Bremen2 Borussia Dortmund win 70% Wrong
Tested on past seasons
76%right across 2,573 picks
74%of 642 lists had at most one wrong pick
37%were perfect
3.5picks per list on average
The same rule applied to our model's walk-forward predictions from 1 Jul 2022 to 19 Oct 2026: each one made before the match, by a model trained on earlier matches only.
How the lists work
- A list is published every 46 hours.
- It covers matches starting 2 to 48 hours later; the first 2 hours are left out because those result percentages are about to become public anyway.
- The picks are the 5 most likely results of those matches, from predictions published 48 hours before kick-off, and only those the model gives 60% or more: a list can be shorter, or empty.
- Picks are fixed when the list is published and never changed.
- These are the most likely results, often for clear favourites: they are not betting advice.