Championship · Matchday 11 Match report

Derby County 0-1 Stoke City: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Derby County

0-1Full time

Stoke City

Saturday 17 October 2026, 14:00 UTC Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Our picks against the result

9 of 12 right

Result Derby County win49% 0-1
Double chance Derby County or draw (1X)77% 0-1
Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.553% 1 goal
More corners Derby County64% Derby County (6-4)
Yellow cards Above average 0 yellow cards · league 3.0
Yellow cards 0 yellow cards 3.5 Under56% 4.5 Under75% 5.5 Under87%
Corners Around average 10 corners · league 10.5
Corners 10 corners 8.5 Over69% 9.5 Over58% 10.5 Under52%

Match stats

Derby County Stoke City

0 Goals 1
0 Yellow cards 0
0 Red cards 0
6 Corners 4

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Derby County vs Stoke City is the Championship fixture at Pride Park Stadium on Saturday 17 October 2026, Matchday 11. Our model picks a Derby win, with a double chance of Derby win or draw.

Why this pick?

Our model makes Derby County the pick because they are rated slightly stronger than Stoke City on our long-run strength rating, and they have home advantage. The main argument against that is Stoke's league position: eighth, with three wins in their last five, while Derby are second from bottom. Yet Derby's recent play suggests they can trouble Stoke: they spend more time in the opposition box than the league average and concede fewer shots, while Stoke create clearly fewer big chances than average and allow more shots and big chances. Those points make Derby's case clearly stronger, and the call is moderate.

Form guide

Derby County

L 1-4 at Queens Park Rangers (A) Championship · 14 Oct
D 1-1 vs Wrexham (H) Championship · 10 Oct
D 1-1 at Burnley (A) Championship · 19 Sep
L 1-2 vs Birmingham City (H) Championship · 12 Sep
L 0-1 vs West Bromwich Albion (H) Championship · 9 Sep

Stoke City

L 2-3 vs Middlesbrough (H) Championship · 13 Oct
W 2-1 at Bolton Wanderers (A) Championship · 10 Oct
W 2-1 vs Sheffield United (H) Championship · 19 Sep
W 2-1 at Watford (A) Championship · 12 Sep
D 1-1 at Cardiff City (A) Championship · 8 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Derby CountyStoke City

Attack 43 26 0.9 goals per match this season1.7 goals per match this season

Defence 48 30 1.9 conceded per match this season1.6 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Championship clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.