Bundesliga · Matchday 5 Match report

Hoffenheim 2-3 Hamburger SV: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Hoffenheim

2-3Full time

Hamburger SV

Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC SNP Arena, Sinsheim

Our picks against the result

8 of 13 right

Result Hoffenheim win58% 2-3
Double chance Hoffenheim or draw (1X)83% 2-3
Both teams to score Yes63% Yes
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.562% 5 goals
More corners Hoffenheim76% Hoffenheim (7-3)
Yellow cards Around average 1 yellow card · league 3.6
Yellow cards 1 yellow card 2.5 Over73% 3.5 Over53% 4.5 Under66%
Corners Around average 10 corners · league 10.9
Corners 10 corners 9.5 Over59% 10.5 Under51% 11.5 Under61%

Match stats

Hoffenheim Hamburger SV

2 Goals 3
1 Yellow cards 0
1 Red cards 0
7 Corners 3

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Hoffenheim vs Hamburger SV opens Matchday 5 in the Bundesliga on Saturday 10 October 2026, and our model goes for a home win, with Hoffenheim win or draw as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Hamburger SV sit clearly below the Bundesliga average on our strength rating, the main reason our model leans to Hoffenheim. Nothing in its reading works hard against that, though the home side's own defence keeps this from being a clearer call: ten goals conceded in four matches and one of the weakest defensive ratings in the competition. Playing at home helps, and the last five matches back it: Hoffenheim are above the league average for shots, big chances and time in the opposition box, while the visitors trail on those measures and have scored just twice all season. The home win is a moderate call rather than a comfortable one.

Both teams to score: Our model does expect both teams to score: Hoffenheim's attack is a strong one and their defence concedes more than the league average, while Hamburger SV have been shipping goals as well. The caution is that the visitors' attack has been slightly below average.

Form guide

Hoffenheim

L 1-3 at Paderborn (A) Bundesliga · 20 Sep
L 0-2 at OFI Crete (A) Europa League · 17 Sep
W 2-1 vs VfB Stuttgart (H) Bundesliga · 12 Sep
L 2-3 vs Borussia Dortmund (H) Bundesliga · 5 Sep
L 2-3 at 1. FC Köln (A) Bundesliga · 29 Aug

Hamburger SV

W 2-1 vs 1. FC Köln (H) Bundesliga · 19 Sep
L 0-5 at RB Leipzig (A) Bundesliga · 13 Sep
L 0-5 vs Mainz 05 (H) Bundesliga · 6 Sep
L 0-2 at Borussia Dortmund (A) Bundesliga · 29 Aug
W 3-0 at SC Verl (A) DFB Pokal · 24 Aug

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

HoffenheimHamburger SV

Attack 59 24 1.8 goals per match this season0.5 goals per match this season

Defence 24 6 2.5 conceded per match this season3.3 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Bundesliga clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.