Bundesliga · Matchday 5 Match report

Mainz 05 3-4 Bayer Leverkusen: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Mainz 05

3-4Full time

Bayer Leverkusen

Saturday 10 October 2026, 13:30 UTC MEWA ARENA, Mainz

Our picks against the result

9 of 12 right

Result Bayer Leverkusen win46% 3-4
Double chance Mainz 05 or Bayer Leverkusen (12)74% 3-4
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.563% 7 goals
More corners Bayer Leverkusen53% Mainz 05 (4-3)
Yellow cards Above average 4 yellow cards · league 3.6
Yellow cards 4 yellow cards 2.5 Over77% 3.5 Over58% 4.5 Under62%
Corners Around average 7 corners · league 10.9
Corners 7 corners 9.5 Over57% 10.5 Under54% 11.5 Under63%

Match stats

Mainz 05 Bayer Leverkusen

3 Goals 4
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
4 Corners 3

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Mainz 05 vs Bayer Leverkusen is the Bundesliga Matchday 5 fixture at the MEWA ARENA on Saturday 10 October 2026, and our model picks Bayer Leverkusen to win, with Mainz 05 or Bayer Leverkusen to win (no draw) as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Our model makes Bayer Leverkusen the pick, mainly because it rates them clearly the stronger side in the Bundesliga, well above the league average in both attack and defence. The case against is the MEWA ARENA itself: playing at home gives Mainz 05 a real lift, and their recent work in the final third — the volume of shots, the quality of chances and the time they spend around the opposition area — has edged past the league norm. That home push is still not enough: Leverkusen's attacking numbers are clearly higher and their defence clearly stingier, and the head-to-head record leans their way. The call is moderate, not clear.

Form guide

Mainz 05

W 4-3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) Bundesliga · 19 Sep
L 1-3 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) Bundesliga · 12 Sep
W 5-0 at Hamburger SV (A) Bundesliga · 6 Sep
D 0-0 vs Paderborn (H) Bundesliga · 29 Aug
W 9-0 at VfB Krieschow (A) DFB Pokal · 23 Aug

Bayer Leverkusen

W 2-0 vs RB Leipzig (H) Bundesliga · 20 Sep
W 2-0 vs NK Celje (H) Europa League · 16 Sep
D 2-2 at Augsburg (A) Bundesliga · 12 Sep
W 4-0 vs Union Berlin (H) Bundesliga · 5 Sep
L 2-3 at Elversberg (A) Bundesliga · 29 Aug

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Mainz 05Bayer Leverkusen

Attack 53 88 2.5 goals per match this season2.5 goals per match this season

Defence 82 88 1.5 conceded per match this season1.3 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Bundesliga clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.