Bundesliga · Matchday 7 Match report

Mainz 05 2-3 Werder Bremen: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Mainz 05

2-3Full time

Werder Bremen

Saturday 24 October 2026, 13:30 UTC MEWA ARENA, Mainz

Our picks against the result

5 of 13 right

Result Mainz 05 win54% 2-3
Double chance Mainz 05 or draw (1X)79% 2-3
Both teams to score Yes65% Yes
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.564% 5 goals
More corners Mainz 0567% Level (6-6)
Yellow cards Around average 5 yellow cards · league 3.4
Yellow cards 5 yellow cards 3.5 Under59% 4.5 Under77% 5.5 Under89%
Corners Around average 12 corners · league 10.7
Corners 12 corners 8.5 Over70% 9.5 Over60% 10.5 Under50%

Match stats

Mainz 05 Werder Bremen

2 Goals 3
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
6 Corners 6

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen is the standout fixture of Matchday 7 in the Bundesliga, played at the MEWA ARENA on Saturday 24 October 2026, and our model backs a home win, with Mainz 05 win or draw as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Our model goes with a Mainz 05 win. The main reason is the gap in our strength ratings: Mainz sit well above Werder Bremen on the long-run, xG-based measure, with the visitors below the Bundesliga average, and Mainz also have home advantage. Werder are awkward opponents, though, unbeaten in their last five and beaten only once in six league games. What settles it is that Mainz create more big chances than the league norm and concede fewer shots than average, so that resistance should have a limit. The call is a moderate one.

Both teams to score: Our model expects both teams to score. Mainz's recent attacking play has produced big chances and plenty of time in the box above the league average, and Werder create more big chances than the norm themselves while Mainz have already conceded ten goals this season.

Form guide

Mainz 05

W 1-0 at Schalke 04 (A) Bundesliga · 17 Oct
L 3-4 vs Bayer Leverkusen (H) Bundesliga · 10 Oct
W 4-3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach (A) Bundesliga · 19 Sep
L 1-3 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) Bundesliga · 12 Sep
W 5-0 at Hamburger SV (A) Bundesliga · 6 Sep

Werder Bremen

D 2-2 vs Paderborn (H) Bundesliga · 17 Oct
D 2-2 at Borussia Dortmund (A) Bundesliga · 9 Oct
W 3-2 vs Augsburg (H) Bundesliga · 19 Sep
D 1-1 at 1. FC Köln (A) Bundesliga · 12 Sep
W 3-1 vs RB Leipzig (H) Bundesliga · 5 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Mainz 05Werder Bremen

Attack 53 35 2.3 goals per match this season2.0 goals per match this season

Defence 71 53 1.7 conceded per match this season2.0 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Bundesliga clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.