Eredivisie · Matchday 10 Match report

Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Sparta Rotterdam

1-2Full time

Ajax

Sunday 25 October 2026, 15:45 UTC Sparta-Stadion Het Kasteel, Rotterdam

Our picks against the result

8 of 13 right

Result Ajax win56% 1-2
Double chance Ajax or draw (X2)81% 1-2
Both teams to score Yes71% Yes
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.571% 3 goals
More corners Ajax57% Sparta Rotterdam (5-3)
Yellow cards Above average 3 yellow cards · league 2.8
Yellow cards 3 yellow cards 3.5 Under62% 4.5 Under79% 5.5 Under90%
Corners Around average 8 corners · league 10.3
Corners 8 corners 8.5 Over69% 9.5 Over59% 10.5 Under51%

Match stats

Sparta Rotterdam Ajax

1 Goals 2
1 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
5 Corners 3

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Sparta Rotterdam vs Ajax is the headline fixture of Matchday 10 in the Eredivisie on Sunday 25 October 2026, and our model goes for an Ajax win, with Ajax win or draw as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Our model goes for an Ajax win. The main driver is our strength rating, which places Ajax clearly above Sparta Rotterdam and well clear of the Eredivisie average, while our goal model also leans the same way on this fixture. The strongest argument on the other side is home advantage for Sparta, small but real at Het Kasteel. The pick survives it because Sparta's defence is among the leakiest in the division — 22 goals conceded in nine games — Ajax's recent attacking numbers sit above the league average, and the head-to-head since 2010 shows 15 Ajax wins in 18 meetings. The call is moderate rather than clear.

Both teams to score: Our model also sees both teams scoring: Sparta Rotterdam create big chances clearly more often than the league average, and Ajax's attacking output — shots, big chances and time in the box — sits above the norm, while Sparta concede plenty of shots.

Form guide

Sparta Rotterdam

W 3-2 vs Willem II (H) Eredivisie · 17 Oct
D 3-3 at Go Ahead Eagles (A) Eredivisie · 10 Oct
L 0-4 vs SC Heerenveen (H) Eredivisie · 19 Sep
L 1-4 at PSV Eindhoven (A) Eredivisie · 13 Sep
D 2-2 vs PEC Zwolle (H) Eredivisie · 4 Sep

Ajax

W 2-0 vs Atalanta (H) Conference League · 22 Oct
W 5-2 at FC Groningen (A) Eredivisie · 18 Oct
L 1-2 at Hajduk Split (A) Conference League · 15 Oct
D 1-1 vs NEC Nijmegen (H) Eredivisie · 10 Oct
D 2-2 vs Excelsior (H) Eredivisie · 19 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Sparta RotterdamAjax

Attack 35 88 1.8 goals per match this season3.0 goals per match this season

Defence 29 76 2.4 conceded per match this season1.3 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Eredivisie clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.