Europa League · League phase, matchday 2 Match report

Jagiellonia Białystok 3-1 Ararat Armenia: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Jagiellonia Białystok

3-1Full time

Ararat Armenia

Thursday 15 October 2026, 19:00 UTC Chorten Arena, Białystok

Our picks against the result

6 of 12 right

Result Jagiellonia Białystok win75% 3-1
Double chance Jagiellonia Białystok or draw (1X)89% 3-1
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.556% 4 goals
More corners Jagiellonia Białystok80% Ararat Armenia (2-3)
Yellow cards Above average 5 yellow cards · league 3.1
Yellow cards 5 yellow cards 3.5 Under53% 4.5 Under72% 5.5 Under85%
Corners Around average 5 corners · league 10.6
Corners 5 corners 8.5 Over64% 9.5 Over53% 10.5 Under58%

Match stats

Jagiellonia Białystok Ararat Armenia

3 Goals 1
3 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
2 Corners 3

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Jagiellonia Białystok vs Ararat Armenia is the Europa League League phase matchday 2 fixture on Thursday 15 October 2026, and the pick is Jagiellonia Białystok to win, while we also favour Jagiellonia Białystok to win or draw.

Why this pick?

Jagiellonia Białystok to win is the main call, and our model's strongest reason is that Jagiellonia's strength rating is higher than Ararat Armenia's, even though both are clearly below the Europa League average. There is no meaningful counterargument in the model's read. The pick still holds because home advantage and the goal model's view of the matchup add to that gap, and the recent numbers point the same way: Jagiellonia's last five matches show them conceding more shots than the league average, but Ararat's defensive averages are more generous, with shots conceded and big chances conceded clearly above average. The call is clear.

Form guide

Jagiellonia Białystok

L 1-3 vs Górnik Zabrze (H) Ekstraklasa · 10 Oct
L 1-3 vs Legia Warszawa (H) Ekstraklasa · 20 Sep
L 1-2 at Olympiacos (A) Europa League · 16 Sep
L 0-2 at Wisła Kraków (A) Ekstraklasa · 11 Sep
W 2-1 vs Śląsk Wrocław (H) Ekstraklasa · 6 Sep

Ararat Armenia

D 1-1 vs Alashkert FC (H) Premier League · 10 Oct
W 3-1 at Shirak (A) Premier League · 20 Sep
L 1-4 vs Sparta Prague (H) Europa League · 16 Sep
W 3-0 vs Syunik (H) Premier League · 11 Sep
W 1-0 at Ararat (A) Premier League · 5 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Jagiellonia BiałystokArarat Armenia

Attack 23 0 1.0 goals per match this season1.0 goals per match this season

Defence 17 0 2.0 conceded per match this season4.0 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Europa League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.