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Liga Portugal · Matchday 11

Nacional 1-0 Académico Viseu: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Nacional crest Nacional
1-0Full time
Académico Viseu crest Académico Viseu
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal (Ilha da Madeira)

Our picks

  • Result Nacional win
    Model probability 47% 28% 25%
  • Double chance Nacional or draw (1X)
    Model probability 75% 72% 53%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.5
    Model probability 54%
  • More corners Nacional
    Model probability 59% 11% 31%
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.2)
    Model probability Over 3.5 57%Over 4.5 37%Over 5.5 22%
  • Corners Above the league average(league 8.8)
    Model probability Over 8.5 58%Over 9.5 47%Over 10.5 37%

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑0 Matched
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 2‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Nacional: Home advantage in this competition Moderate support
  • Académico Viseu: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Moderate support
  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Low support
All probabilities

Result after 90 minutes

Nacional 47% Our pick
Draw 28%
Académico Viseu 25%

Double chance

1X · Nacional or draw75%

12 · Nacional or Académico Viseu72%

X2 · Académico Viseu or draw53%

Both teams to score

Yes52%

No48%

Goals over/under 2.5

Over 2.546%

Under 2.554%

Yellow cards

Expected 4.0

Over 3.5 / under57% · 43%

Over 4.5 / under37% · 63%

Over 5.5 / under22% · 78%

Corners

Expected Nacional 5.4 – 4.1 Académico Viseu

Over 8.5 / under58% · 42%

Over 9.5 / under47% · 53%

Over 10.5 / under37% · 63%

More corners

Nacional59%

Level11%

Académico Viseu31%

Why this pick?

Our model makes Nacional the pick, and playing at the Estádio da Madeira is the main reason behind that call. The strongest argument on the other side is our goal model's reading of the matchup, which does not point the same way. That is not enough to overturn it: Académico Viseu concede clearly more shots than the league average and more clear chances with them, so their lively attacking numbers come with real exposure at the back. Nacional are rated slightly ahead of them — both sit clearly below the Liga Portugal average — and a home win over Braga shows they can handle this kind of game. The call is moderate.

Match facts

Competition
Liga Portugal, Matchday 11
Kick-off
Venue
Estádio da Madeira, Funchal (Ilha da Madeira)
Referee
Pedro Ramalho
Last match
Nacional: Arouca (1‑0) Académico Viseu: Rio Ave (2‑1)

Starting line-ups

Nacional 4-3-3

  1. 1 Marin
  2. 7 Jensen
  3. 33 Gonçalves
  4. 38 Vítor
  5. 21 Kokolo
  6. 8 Baeza
  7. 6 Dias
  8. 15 Labidi
  9. 11 Gavriel
  10. 29 Kader
  11. 12 Song

Coach: João Henriques

Académico Viseu 4-3-3

  1. 98 Ewerton
  2. 75 Robinho
  3. 41 Correia
  4. 2 Michelis
  5. 3 Brau
  6. 14 Messeguem
  7. 7 Silva
  8. 8 Kahraman
  9. 22 Moreno
  10. 33 Clovis
  11. 31 Guilherme

Coach: Bruno Pinheiro

Injuries and suspensions

Nacional

  • DF Léo SantosInjured · Day to day
  • DF WesleyInjured · Early November 2026
  • MF Filipe SoaresInjured · Early January 2027
  • MF LizieroInjured · Day to day
  • – Ulisses RochaInjured · Day to day

Académico Viseu

No absences reported.

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Nacional Académico Viseu
Box & Territory Pressure 29 31
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 39 49
Finishing Efficiency 22 72
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 40 51
Underlying Play Power 28 38
Nacional Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Académico Viseu Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 9 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Nacional

When scoring first 62% won · 62% unbeaten (8 matches)
When conceding first 14% points rescued · 0% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%
First 15': 12% Last 15' (76-90'): 19%

Académico Viseu

When scoring first 83% won · 100% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 25% won (4 matches)
1st Half: 47% 2nd Half: 53%
First 15': 13% Last 15' (76-90'): 20%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Nacional

  1. 1. MF Miguel Baeza 1G · 0A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 9.0%
  2. 2. FW Pablo Ruan 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 11.0%
  3. 3. MF Matchoi 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 5.0%

Académico Viseu

  1. 1. FW André Clovis 4G · 1A
    Team attack 22.0% Team shots 28.0%
  2. 2. MF Soufiane Messeguem 3G · 1A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 12.0%
  3. 3. FW João Guilherme 3G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 17.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Nacional Académico Viseu
Over 1.5 goals 6/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 4/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 4/10 1/10
Both teams scored 3/10 5/10
Clean sheet 2/10 2/10
Failed to score 5/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.8 / 1.8 1.3 / 1.1

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Nacional

  • L 0-1 at Arouca (A) Liga Portugal · 1 Nov
  • W 1-0 vs Braga (H) Liga Portugal · 25 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Sanjoanense (A) Taça de Portugal · 17 Oct
  • L 2-3 at Rio Ave (A) Liga Portugal · 11 Oct
  • L 0-4 vs Famalicão (H) Liga Portugal · 19 Sep

Académico Viseu

  • W 2-1 vs Rio Ave (H) Liga Portugal · 1 Nov
  • L 0-1 at FC Porto (A) League Cup · 28 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Sporting CP (A) Liga Portugal · 25 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Fátima (A) Taça de Portugal · 18 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Estoril (H) Liga Portugal · 10 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Nacional

Académico Viseu

Goals in each 15-minute period, Liga Portugal this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Nacional

Player G A
Miguel Baeza 2 0
Njoya Kader 2 0
Liziero (1 pen) 1 1
Léo Santos 1 1
Matchoi 1 0

Académico Viseu

Player G A
André Clovis 5 1
Soufiane Messeguem 3 1
João Guilherme 3 0
Cihan Kahraman 1 4
Lorougnon Gohi 1 0

Goals and assists in the Liga Portugal this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Nacional Académico Viseu
  • 4.1 Corners won 2.6
  • 5.2 Corners conceded 5.8
  • 1.3 Yellow cards 2.8
  • 2.1 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7

Per match in the Liga Portugal this season. Average per club and match: 4.4 corners, 2.1 yellow cards.

Referee: Pedro Ramalho, 4 earlier matches in our data.

Attack and defence ratings

NacionalAcadémico Viseu
Attack 24 41 1.0 goals per match this season1.5 goals per match this season
Defence 29 41 1.9 conceded per match this season1.2 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Liga Portugal clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

3Nacional wins
5draws
1Académico Viseu wins

9 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 9 Mar 2024 · Liga Portugal 2 Nacional 1-1 Académico Viseu
  • 29 Oct 2023 · Liga Portugal 2 Académico Viseu 1-1 Nacional
  • 28 May 2023 · Liga Portugal 2 Nacional 3-2 Académico Viseu
  • 21 Jan 2023 · Liga Portugal 2 Académico Viseu 1-1 Nacional
  • 7 May 2022 · Liga Portugal 2 Nacional 1-2 Académico Viseu

Liga Portugal so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
6 Académico Viseu 10 622 15:12 +3 20
15 Nacional 10 217 10:19 -9 7

Positions in our table of 18 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Other Liga Portugal results that day

All results

Times are UTC.