Value Bets & Return Tracker
What is this?
FOOTBALL & NBA · SIMULATED $100 FLAT STAKE. Every released match and game is checked once at prediction freeze time. When our model’s probability exceeds the implied market odds by at least 4% within our probability and odds caps, the selection is tracked at a flat $100 stake. Upcoming selections are exclusive to members; every settled selection and the cumulative return curve are public.
Net profit +$1,944 $16,400 staked → $18,344 returned
Return on investment +12% 164 settled selections ($100 flat per pick)
Hit rate 60% 98W – 66L
Average model edge +10% Avg odds 1.88 · Prob 64%
Cumulative net profit ($100 flat per selection)
164 settled selections · $16,400 total volume
Start ($0) 10 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 Current: +$1,944
Net profit +$1,268 $5,700 staked → $6,968 returned
Return on investment +22% 57 settled selections ($100 flat per pick)
Hit rate 67% 38W – 19L
Average model edge +7% Avg odds 1.85 · Prob 62%
Cumulative net profit ($100 flat per selection)
57 settled selections · $5,700 total volume
Start ($0) 10 Oct 2026 – 12 Nov 2026 Current: +$1,268
Net profit +$676 $10,700 staked → $11,376 returned
Return on investment +6% 107 settled selections ($100 flat per pick)
Hit rate 56% 60W – 47L
Average model edge +11% Avg odds 1.89 · Prob 64%
Cumulative net profit ($100 flat per selection)
107 settled selections · $10,700 total volume
Start ($0) 20 Oct 2026 – 13 Nov 2026 Current: +$676
Upcoming value selections
Members only10 upcoming value selections are locked for members
Upcoming selections are never shown in free windows. Members see every qualifying Football and NBA selection as soon as the model freezes its prediction (all picks are tracked at a flat $100 stake).
Edge up to +17% · Avg odds 1.85
Settled selections & audit log
164 verified selections settled (each calculated at a flat $100 stake)
Phoenix Suns 101–96 
Charlotte Hornets Total pts Under 213.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.48)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +15%
Won +$89
Minnesota Timberwolves 133–94 
Dallas Mavericks Total pts Under 226.5
Model / Fair 60% (1.67)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Armenia 1–1 
Cyprus 1X2 Armenia to win
Model / Fair 53% (1.88)
Market odds 2.30
Edge +10%
Lost −$100
Portland Trail Blazers 118–108 
Oklahoma City Thunder Total pts Under 224.5
Model / Fair 62% (1.60)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +10%
Lost −$100
Houston Rockets 115–105 
Golden State Warriors Total pts Under 222.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.72)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +6%
Won +$91
New Orleans Pelicans 111–145 
Brooklyn Nets Total pts Under 230.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.64)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Chicago Bulls 119–124 
San Antonio Spurs Total pts Under 238.5
Model / Fair 66% (1.52)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +13%
Lost −$100
Toronto Raptors 93–98 
Boston Celtics Total pts Under 215.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.63)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +9%
Won +$91
New York Knicks 107–115 
Cleveland Cavaliers Total pts Under 222.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.53)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +13%
Won +$92
Indiana Pacers 114–101 
Washington Wizards Total pts Under 228.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.65)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +7%
Won +$89
Portland Trail Blazers 123–103 Oklahoma City Thunder Total pts Under 226.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.59)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +11%
Won +$93
Philadelphia 76ers 101–123 Boston Celtics Total pts Under 216.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.63)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +9%
Lost −$100
Golden State Warriors 138–87 New Orleans Pelicans Total pts Under 231.0
Model / Fair 59% (1.69)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +6%
Won +$89
Dallas Mavericks 125–122 Indiana Pacers Total pts Under 225.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.73)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Toronto Raptors 102–118 
Memphis Grizzlies Winner Toronto Raptors to win
Model / Fair 65% (1.53)
Market odds 1.66
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Atlanta Hawks 114–124 
Los Angeles Lakers Total pts Under 236.0
Model / Fair 59% (1.69)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Charlotte Hornets 124–112 Cleveland Cavaliers Total pts Under 217.5
Model / Fair 74% (1.36)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +21%
Lost −$100
Sacramento Kings 108–114 
Miami Heat Total pts Under 239.0
Model / Fair 68% (1.48)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +15%
Won +$91
Milwaukee Bucks 97–117 Boston Celtics Total pts Under 223.5
Model / Fair 57% (1.75)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +5%
Won +$91
Lens 1–2 
Marseille 1X2 Lens to win
Model / Fair 50% (2.01)
Market odds 2.25
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Hoffenheim 2–1 
Schalke 04 1X2 Hoffenheim to win
Model / Fair 69% (1.44)
Market odds 1.60
Edge +7%
Won +$60
Ipswich Town 1–2 
AFC Bournemouth 1X2 AFC Bournemouth to win
Model / Fair 59% (1.69)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +7%
Won +$90
FC Twente 2–2 
Ajax 1X2 FC Twente to win
Model / Fair 50% (2.01)
Market odds 2.20
Edge +4%
Lost −$100
FC Dallas 3–1 
Colorado Rapids 1X2 FC Dallas to win
Model / Fair 54% (1.84)
Market odds 2.00
Edge +4%
Won +$100
Chicago Bulls 121–127 Philadelphia 76ers Total pts Under 238.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.64)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +9%
Lost −$100
Portland Trail Blazers 103–125 San Antonio Spurs Total pts Under 229.5
Model / Fair 62% (1.61)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +10%
Won +$91
Indiana Pacers 114–102 
Denver Nuggets Total pts Under 228.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.59)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +10%
Won +$91
Los Angeles Lakers 124–118 Portland Trail Blazers Total pts Under 233.5
Model / Fair 66% (1.52)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +14%
Lost −$100
Milwaukee Bucks 107–121 Toronto Raptors Total pts Under 231.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.64)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +8%
Won +$89
Cleveland Cavaliers 119–95 Philadelphia 76ers Winner Philadelphia 76ers to win
Model / Fair 61% (1.63)
Market odds 1.86
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Atlanta Hawks 139–132 Washington Wizards Total pts Under 230.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.65)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Charlotte Hornets 80–119 Boston Celtics Total pts Under 210.5
Model / Fair 82% (1.23)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +29%
Won +$91
Venezia 2–1 
Udinese 1X2 Venezia to win
Model / Fair 50% (2.01)
Market odds 2.20
Edge +4%
Won +$120
Golden State Warriors 120–100 Miami Heat Winner Golden State Warriors to win
Model / Fair 74% (1.35)
Market odds 1.57
Edge +11%
Won +$57
Riga FC 1–1 
Jablonec 1X2 Riga FC to win
Model / Fair 49% (2.04)
Market odds 2.30
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Hapoel Beer Sheva 0–2 
OFI Crete 1X2 Hapoel Beer Sheva to win
Model / Fair 74% (1.36)
Market odds 2.05
Edge +25%
Lost −$100
KuPS 0–0 
Gent O/U 2.5 Under 2.5
Model / Fair 56% (1.77)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +5%
Won +$93
Sacramento Kings 103–116 Los Angeles Lakers Total pts Under 233.5
Model / Fair 57% (1.76)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +4%
Won +$91
Denver Nuggets 128–109 Toronto Raptors Total pts Under 231.0
Model / Fair 60% (1.67)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Houston Rockets 107–117 Minnesota Timberwolves Total pts Under 218.5
Model / Fair 59% (1.70)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +7%
Lost −$100
Oklahoma City Thunder 124–116 Cleveland Cavaliers Total pts Under 226.5
Model / Fair 60% (1.66)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
New Orleans Pelicans 120–113 
Utah Jazz Total pts Over 231.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.72)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +4%
Won +$87
New York Knicks 135–105 Chicago Bulls Total pts Under 233.5
Model / Fair 59% (1.68)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +7%
Lost −$100
Brooklyn Nets 114–104 Charlotte Hornets Total pts Under 213.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.46)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +16%
Lost −$100
Washington Wizards 105–120 Atlanta Hawks Total pts Under 230.5
Model / Fair 56% (1.77)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +4%
Won +$92
Detroit Pistons 106–112 Philadelphia 76ers Total pts Under 219.5
Model / Fair 59% (1.69)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +7%
Won +$92
Fenerbahçe 3–2 
Liverpool O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.47)
Market odds 1.71
Edge +10%
Won +$71
Villarreal 0–6 
Paris Saint-Germain O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 72% (1.39)
Market odds 1.66
Edge +12%
Won +$66
Feyenoord 0–3 
Inter O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.48)
Market odds 1.76
Edge +11%
Won +$76
Manchester United 3–2 
Roma O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 66% (1.52)
Market odds 1.76
Edge +9%
Won +$76
Atlético Madrid 0–2 
Bayern München O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.50)
Market odds 1.66
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Atlético Madrid 0–2 Bayern München 1X2 Bayern München to win
Model / Fair 55% (1.82)
Market odds 2.00
Edge +5%
Won +$100
Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 
Sporting CP O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 59% (1.68)
Market odds 1.83
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Shakhtar Donetsk 0–1 Sporting CP 1X2 Sporting CP to win
Model / Fair 55% (1.83)
Market odds 2.10
Edge +7%
Won +$110
Los Angeles Lakers 138–117 Miami Heat Total pts Under 237.5
Model / Fair 62% (1.62)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +9%
Lost −$100
Denver Nuggets 110–118 Portland Trail Blazers Total pts Under 231.5
Model / Fair 60% (1.66)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +8%
Won +$93
San Antonio Spurs 119–97 Utah Jazz Total pts Over 227.0
Model / Fair 58% (1.73)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Houston Rockets 109–93 Boston Celtics Total pts Under 215.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.58)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +11%
Won +$93
Dallas Mavericks 100–115 Sacramento Kings Total pts Under 232.5
Model / Fair 57% (1.77)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +4%
Won +$91
Philadelphia 76ers 126–107 Chicago Bulls Total pts Under 240.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.58)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +11%
Won +$90
New York Knicks 103–90 Brooklyn Nets Total pts Under 218.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.63)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +9%
Won +$93
Charlotte Hornets 91–124 Detroit Pistons Total pts Under 209.5
Model / Fair 78% (1.28)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +26%
Lost −$100
Cleveland Cavaliers 112–117 Oklahoma City Thunder Total pts Under 229.5
Model / Fair 69% (1.45)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +17%
Won +$91
Indiana Pacers 90–98 Brooklyn Nets Total pts Under 229.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.72)
Market odds 1.94
Edge +7%
Won +$94
Orlando Magic 97–108 Boston Celtics Total pts Under 222.0
Model / Fair 59% (1.70)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +7%
Won +$92
Juventus 2–0 
Napoli 1X2 Juventus to win
Model / Fair 53% (1.88)
Market odds 2.10
Edge +6%
Won +$110
Houston Rockets 119–98 Oklahoma City Thunder Total pts Under 219.5
Model / Fair 69% (1.45)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +16%
Won +$89
San Antonio Spurs 121–111 Minnesota Timberwolves Total pts Under 230.0
Model / Fair 57% (1.75)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Milwaukee Bucks 111–136 Cleveland Cavaliers Total pts Under 235.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.55)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +12%
Lost −$100
New Orleans Pelicans 121–99 Atlanta Hawks Total pts Under 239.5
Model / Fair 66% (1.52)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +13%
Won +$90
Charlotte Hornets 104–109 Philadelphia 76ers Total pts Under 211.5
Model / Fair 71% (1.40)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +19%
Lost −$100
West Ham United 1–3 
West Bromwich Albion 1X2 West Ham United to win
Model / Fair 70% (1.43)
Market odds 1.75
Edge +13%
Lost −$100
AFC Bournemouth 2–0 
Leeds United 1X2 AFC Bournemouth to win
Model / Fair 56% (1.79)
Market odds 1.95
Edge +5%
Won +$95
Golden State Warriors 112–95 Los Angeles Lakers Total pts Under 234.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.54)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +13%
Won +$92
Dallas Mavericks 116–111 Houston Rockets Winner Houston Rockets to win
Model / Fair 73% (1.38)
Market odds 1.51
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Miami Heat 145–125 Indiana Pacers Total pts Under 237.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.54)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +12%
Lost −$100
Toronto Raptors 114–121 Orlando Magic Total pts Under 227.0
Model / Fair 61% (1.64)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Boston Celtics 125–111 Chicago Bulls Total pts Under 236.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.73)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +4%
Won +$87
Washington Wizards 95–79 Charlotte Hornets Total pts Under 218.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.63)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +9%
Won +$90
New Orleans Pelicans 132–120 Sacramento Kings Total pts Under 234.5
Model / Fair 66% (1.52)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +13%
Lost −$100
Atlanta Hawks 114–111 Cleveland Cavaliers Total pts Under 237.5
Model / Fair 62% (1.61)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +10%
Won +$91
Dallas Mavericks 120–96 Oklahoma City Thunder Total pts Under 227.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.73)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +6%
Won +$93
Nashville SC 0–0 
Philadelphia Union O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.58)
Market odds 1.72
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
New Orleans Pelicans 91–104 Denver Nuggets Total pts Under 240.5
Model / Fair 69% (1.45)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +17%
Won +$92
Minnesota Timberwolves 114–119 Golden State Warriors Winner Minnesota Timberwolves to win
Model / Fair 68% (1.47)
Market odds 1.61
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Toronto Raptors 129–99 Orlando Magic Total pts Under 224.5
Model / Fair 58% (1.72)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +7%
Lost −$100
Detroit Pistons 97–89 Charlotte Hornets Total pts Under 212.5
Model / Fair 72% (1.38)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +21%
Won +$93
Cleveland Cavaliers 121–111 Washington Wizards Total pts Under 240.5
Model / Fair 69% (1.46)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +16%
Won +$89
Atlanta Hawks 117–129 Miami Heat Total pts Under 243.0
Model / Fair 70% (1.43)
Market odds 1.94
Edge +18%
Lost −$100
Los Angeles Lakers 129–136 Portland Trail Blazers Total pts Under 234.5
Model / Fair 59% (1.68)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +7%
Lost −$100
Roma 4–2 
Cagliari O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 60% (1.65)
Market odds 1.83
Edge +6%
Won +$83
Denver Nuggets 114–134 Golden State Warriors Total pts Under 236.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.46)
Market odds 1.86
Edge +15%
Lost −$100
Utah Jazz 105–110 Memphis Grizzlies Winner Utah Jazz to win
Model / Fair 59% (1.71)
Market odds 1.98
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Houston Rockets 120–110 Atlanta Hawks Total pts Under 229.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.58)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +11%
Lost −$100
Milwaukee Bucks 110–102 Indiana Pacers Total pts Under 239.5
Model / Fair 59% (1.68)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +7%
Won +$89
Miami Heat 109–113 Dallas Mavericks Total pts Under 240.5
Model / Fair 70% (1.42)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +17%
Won +$89
Cleveland Cavaliers 127–125 Minnesota Timberwolves Total pts Under 234.5
Model / Fair 64% (1.55)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +11%
Lost −$100
Philadelphia 76ers 93–106 Detroit Pistons Winner Detroit Pistons to win
Model / Fair 61% (1.64)
Market odds 1.77
Edge +4%
Won +$77
Minnesota Timberwolves 117–94 Toronto Raptors Total pts Under 228.5
Model / Fair 60% (1.67)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +8%
Won +$92
New York Knicks 102–111 Orlando Magic Total pts Under 224.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.49)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +15%
Won +$92
Brooklyn Nets 109–136 Indiana Pacers Total pts Under 231.5
Model / Fair 60% (1.66)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +8%
Lost −$100
Göztepe 2–0 
Çorum FK 1X2 Göztepe to win
Model / Fair 57% (1.76)
Market odds 2.25
Edge +12%
Won +$125
Hoffenheim 3–0 
Bayer Leverkusen 1X2 Bayer Leverkusen to win
Model / Fair 56% (1.79)
Market odds 2.00
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Atalanta 4–4 
Frosinone 1X2 Atalanta to win
Model / Fair 61% (1.65)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +7%
Lost −$100
Phoenix Suns 131–122 Golden State Warriors Total pts Over 221.5
Model / Fair 69% (1.44)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +17%
Won +$91
Denver Nuggets 141–135 New Orleans Pelicans Total pts Under 239.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.47)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +16%
Lost −$100
Atlanta Hawks 114–121 Houston Rockets Winner Houston Rockets to win
Model / Fair 60% (1.68)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +8%
Won +$93
Chicago Bulls 120–124 Washington Wizards Total pts Under 244.5
Model / Fair 57% (1.74)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +5%
Won +$91
Charlotte Hornets 115–110 Miami Heat Total pts Under 227.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.54)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +13%
Won +$91
Lens 2–1 
Paris FC 1X2 Lens to win
Model / Fair 52% (1.91)
Market odds 2.20
Edge +7%
Won +$120
RB Leipzig 4–0 
Elversberg 1X2 RB Leipzig to win
Model / Fair 70% (1.42)
Market odds 1.52
Edge +4%
Won +$52
Sacramento Kings 120–128 Portland Trail Blazers Total pts Under 232.5
Model / Fair 70% (1.43)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +18%
Lost −$100
Golden State Warriors 108–111 Memphis Grizzlies Total pts Under 236.5
Model / Fair 74% (1.35)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +22%
Won +$93
Utah Jazz 120–119 New Orleans Pelicans Winner Utah Jazz to win
Model / Fair 58% (1.72)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +5%
Won +$89
Miami Heat 111–128 Detroit Pistons Total pts Under 235.5
Model / Fair 75% (1.34)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +21%
Lost −$100
Washington Wizards 102–112 Toronto Raptors Total pts Under 236.5
Model / Fair 73% (1.37)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +21%
Won +$91
Orlando Magic 93–115 Minnesota Timberwolves Total pts Under 234.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.54)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +12%
Won +$91
Indiana Pacers 105–121 Dallas Mavericks Total pts Under 242.0
Model / Fair 73% (1.36)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +21%
Won +$89
Charlotte Hornets 81–128 Atlanta Hawks Total pts Under 226.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.48)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +15%
Won +$91
Boston Celtics 107–103 New York Knicks Total pts Under 220.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.50)
Market odds 1.88
Edge +13%
Won +$88
Milwaukee Bucks 125–132 Chicago Bulls Total pts Under 241.0
Model / Fair 68% (1.47)
Market odds 1.91
Edge +15%
Lost −$100
Brest 1–2 
Nice 1X2 Brest to win
Model / Fair 48% (2.08)
Market odds 2.30
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Oklahoma City Thunder 96–84 Denver Nuggets Total pts Under 236.5
Model / Fair 73% (1.37)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +20%
Won +$90
Philadelphia 76ers 114–106 Cleveland Cavaliers Total pts Under 235.5
Model / Fair 62% (1.61)
Market odds 1.88
Edge +9%
Won +$88
FC Midtjylland 0–1 
St.Truiden 1X2 FC Midtjylland to win
Model / Fair 58% (1.73)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +5%
Lost −$100
Monaco 3–0 
Freiburg 1X2 Monaco to win
Model / Fair 50% (2.00)
Market odds 2.20
Edge +5%
Won +$120
AFC Bournemouth 3–0 
Milan 1X2 AFC Bournemouth to win
Model / Fair 63% (1.58)
Market odds 1.75
Edge +6%
Won +$75
Olympiacos 1–0 
Sparta Prague O/U 2.5 Under 2.5
Model / Fair 56% (1.79)
Market odds 2.01
Edge +6%
Won +$101
Ferencváros 4–1 
Torreense 1X2 Ferencváros to win
Model / Fair 79% (1.26)
Market odds 1.40
Edge +8%
Won +$40
Portland Trail Blazers 124–83 Phoenix Suns Winner Portland Trail Blazers to win
Model / Fair 71% (1.42)
Market odds 1.61
Edge +9%
Won +$61
Los Angeles Lakers 127–105 Golden State Warriors Total pts Under 233.5
Model / Fair 66% (1.51)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +14%
Won +$90
Houston Rockets 128–110 Dallas Mavericks Total pts Under 230.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.50)
Market odds 1.86
Edge +13%
Lost −$100
New Orleans Pelicans 120–123 Indiana Pacers Total pts Under 238.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.50)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +15%
Lost −$100
Memphis Grizzlies 123–103 Utah Jazz Total pts Over 241.5
Model / Fair 61% (1.63)
Market odds 1.93
Edge +10%
Lost −$100
Toronto Raptors 135–92 Chicago Bulls Total pts Under 236.0
Model / Fair 67% (1.49)
Market odds 1.98
Edge +17%
Won +$98
Brooklyn Nets 103–110 Charlotte Hornets Total pts Under 219.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.53)
Market odds 1.95
Edge +14%
Won +$95
Miami Heat 106–131 Minnesota Timberwolves Total pts Under 243.0
Model / Fair 76% (1.32)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +22%
Won +$87
Washington Wizards 128–116 Milwaukee Bucks Total pts Under 238.5
Model / Fair 68% (1.48)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +15%
Lost −$100
Orlando Magic 125–132 Atlanta Hawks Total pts Under 235.0
Model / Fair 73% (1.37)
Market odds 1.89
Edge +20%
Lost −$100
Real Betis 1–0 Feyenoord O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 72% (1.39)
Market odds 1.67
Edge +12%
Lost −$100
Club Brugge 3–0 Lens O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 70% (1.42)
Market odds 1.80
Edge +15%
Won +$80
Sporting CP 2–3 
LASK O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 76% (1.32)
Market odds 1.40
Edge +4%
Won +$40
Sporting CP 2–3 LASK 1X2 Sporting CP to win
Model / Fair 84% (1.19)
Market odds 1.33
Edge +9%
Lost −$100
Inter 1–0 Shakhtar Donetsk O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 72% (1.38)
Market odds 1.50
Edge +6%
Lost −$100
Real Madrid 4–1 RB Leipzig O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 74% (1.35)
Market odds 1.44
Edge +5%
Won +$44
Como 4–1 Manchester United O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 64% (1.57)
Market odds 2.00
Edge +14%
Won +$100
San Antonio Spurs 104–116 Oklahoma City Thunder Total pts Under 229.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.50)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +14%
Won +$90
Detroit Pistons 121–113 Boston Celtics Total pts Under 221.0
Model / Fair 63% (1.60)
Market odds 1.92
Edge +10%
Lost −$100
VfB Stuttgart 1–1 Atlético Madrid O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 67% (1.49)
Market odds 1.72
Edge +9%
Lost −$100
Liverpool 4–3 Villarreal O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 73% (1.37)
Market odds 1.54
Edge +8%
Won +$54
Paris Saint-Germain 4–2 
Barcelona O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 74% (1.35)
Market odds 1.53
Edge +9%
Won +$53
Fenerbahçe 2–2 
Slavia Prague O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 63% (1.60)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +10%
Won +$90
AFC Bournemouth 2–0 
Sunderland 1X2 AFC Bournemouth to win
Model / Fair 56% (1.77)
Market odds 2.00
Edge +6%
Won +$100
Swansea City 0–1 West Ham United 1X2 West Ham United to win
Model / Fair 54% (1.85)
Market odds 2.05
Edge +5%
Won +$105
Fulham 1–0 
Hull City 1X2 Fulham to win
Model / Fair 69% (1.45)
Market odds 1.62
Edge +7%
Won +$62
St.Truiden 2–0 
Iberia 1999 1X2 St.Truiden to win
Model / Fair 83% (1.20)
Market odds 1.27
Edge +4%
Won +$27
Rennes 2–1 OFI Crete O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 70% (1.42)
Market odds 1.56
Edge +6%
Won +$56
Ferencváros 2–1 
Viktoria Plzeň 1X2 Ferencváros to win
Model / Fair 57% (1.76)
Market odds 1.90
Edge +4%
Won +$90
Manchester City 2–4 Paris Saint-Germain 1X2 Manchester City to win
Model / Fair 58% (1.74)
Market odds 1.87
Edge +4%
Lost −$100
Villarreal 3–1 Napoli O/U 2.5 Over 2.5
Model / Fair 65% (1.54)
Market odds 1.74
Edge +7%
Won +$74
Villarreal 3–1 Napoli 1X2 Villarreal to win
Model / Fair 54% (1.84)
Market odds 2.10
Edge +7%
Won +$110
Sabah FK 2–0 Slavia Prague 1X2 Slavia Prague to win
Model / Fair 60% (1.67)
Market odds 1.80
Edge +4%
Lost −$100
Freiburg 2–1 Schalke 04 1X2 Freiburg to win
Model / Fair 66% (1.52)
Market odds 1.70
Edge +7%
Won +$70
Sunderland 0–2 
Brighton & Hove Albion 1X2 Brighton & Hove Albion to win
Model / Fair 49% (2.03)
Market odds 2.30
Edge +6%
Won +$130
Selection rules & methodology
- Single snapshot at release: each match is evaluated once when its model prediction is frozen. Later market line movements are never chased.
- Minimum 4% probability edge: a selection qualifies only when model probability minus implied probability (1 / market odds) is at least +4.0%.
- Probability and odds caps: Football 1X2 requires model probability ≥ 48% and odds ≤ 2.30; Football Over/Under 2.5 requires probability ≥ 55% and odds ≤ 2.05; NBA Winner and Total require probability ≥ 55% and odds ≤ 2.00.
- Standardized $100 flat stake: every selection is tracked with the exact same $100 simulated stake so high-odds outliers cannot distort the return curve.