Atlanta Hawks Atlanta Hawks 47% 
Miami Heat 43% Atlanta Hawks ahead Atlanta Hawks 45% Tie 48% Miami Heat 97% Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 20.5 37% Under 3.5 95% Under 3.5 72% Jalen Johnson Under 22.5 88% Under 10.5 51% Under 7.5 74% Onyeka Okongwu Under 14.5 38% Under 7.5 46% Under 3.5 89% Bam Adebayo Under 19.5 49% Under 9.5 81% Under 3.5 94% Davion Mitchell Over 9.5 62% Under 2.5 42% Under 6.5 54% Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 27.5 60% Under 9.5 18% Under 5.5 28% Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.
See exactly how confident our model is
Every probability, the total and team points lines and the player lines. The winner percentages are free for everyone 2h before tip-off ·
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Expected Atlanta Hawks 1.4
Total points212.1
Atlanta Hawks118.8
Miami Heat122.8
Over 221.5 / Under 221.573% · 39%
Over 231.5 / Under 231.519% · 44%
Over 241.5 / Under 241.510% · 55%
Over 109.5 / Under 109.596% · 20%
Over 115.5 / Under 115.564% · 25%
Over 121.5 / Under 121.526% · 75%
Over 109.5 / Under 109.585% · 33%
Over 115.5 / Under 115.578% · 57%
Over 121.5 / Under 121.511% · 59%
Expected107.3
Over 110.5 / Under 110.570% · 17%
Over 116.5 / Under 116.567% · 22%
Over 122.5 / Under 122.563% · 84%
Our model leans to Atlanta Hawks, mainly because they sit slightly above Miami Heat on our team rating, which takes results and the players expected to play into account, and because the game is on their own court. The counterweight is honest: Atlanta have lost two in a row and dropped their only home game so far, while Miami have scored at least 106 points in every defeat. What keeps the pick standing is the difference in records, Miami at 0‑4 and 0‑3 on their own floor, together with the pace both teams bring. The call is a moderate one, not a wide one.
Total points: Atlanta rank third and Miami second in pace, so both teams push the total up and our model sees the game landing around the league average. Questionable and doubtful absences on the injury report pull it slightly the other way.
Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat is a regular-season NBA game on Wednesday 28 October 2026, and our model goes with an Atlanta win while seeing the total points around the league average.
Bam Adebayo said he feels like the scapegoat for Miami's poor start, with the Heat now 0-4 after a 113-109 loss to the Dallas Mavericks on Monday night. Giannis Antetokounmpo recorded a triple-double in the defeat.
Cooper Flagg put up 29 points, 11 assists and five steals as Dallas won 113-109 in Miami.
Houston defeated Atlanta 120-110, with Alperen Şengün close to a triple-double. The Turkish player also recorded a career-best six steals.
Miami let a fourth-quarter advantage slip away against Dallas and remains winless this season. Giannis Antetokounmpo recorded a triple-double in the defeat.
Atlanta lost 120-110 to its opponent, stifled in the fourth quarter and unable to close the gap late.
Atlanta shot poorly in its opening defeat of the campaign against Houston.
Houston beat Atlanta 121-114 in an NBA game, with Turkish center Alperen Şengün recording a double-double.
Antetokounmpo has yet to win since joining Miami, who sit bottom of the East after three games.
Atlanta HawksMiami HeatThe report of 27 Oct, 21:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.
Atlanta HawksMiami HeatMost recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.
ATLMIA Atlanta Hawks vs Miami Heat tips off at 23:00 UK time (19:00 US Eastern time) on Wednesday 28 October 2026, US date.
Our model picks Atlanta Hawks to win, a call with a fair margin. The main reason is home court. It sees the total points around the league average.
The official NBA injury report lists Jalen Wilson (Atlanta Hawks): questionable; Keshon Gilbert (Atlanta Hawks): questionable; Aaron Wiggins (Atlanta Hawks): questionable; Simone Fontecchio (Miami Heat): doubtful.
Atlanta Hawks are 2-2; Miami Heat are 0-4.
On 2026-04-12: Miami Heat 143-117 Atlanta Hawks.
Cleveland Cavaliers 
Washington Wizards Our pick CLE 
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Indiana Pacers 
Philadelphia 76ers Our pick PHI 
Toronto Raptors 
Orlando Magic Our pick TOR 
Chicago Bulls 
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Milwaukee Bucks Houston Rockets Our pick HOU Times are UTC.