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NBA · Regular season

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction and Preview

Dallas Mavericks 2-2
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder 4-0
Dallas

Our picks

Free picks
  • Winner Free pick Dallas Mavericks
    Model probability 32% 75%
  • First half Free pick Oklahoma City Thunder ahead
    Model probability 38% 34% 45%
  • Total points Free pick Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 96%Over 231.5 63%Over 241.5 18%
  • Dallas Mavericks points Free pick Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 99%Over 115.5 44%Over 121.5 21%
  • Oklahoma City Thunder points Free pick Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 57%Over 115.5 47%Over 121.5 19%

Players

PTSREBAST
Max Christie Under 12.5 59% Under 3.5 16% Over 1.5 55%
Cooper Flagg Under 21.5 74% Under 6.5 72% Over 4.5 89%
P.J. Washington Under 14.5 78% Under 7.5 84% Under 1.5 95%
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 9.5 77% Under 9.5 76% Under 3.5 92%
Jared McCain Over 8.5 73% Under 2.5 68% Under 1.5 69%
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 30.5 94% Under 4.5 50% Over 6.5 79%

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

Every probability, the total and team points lines and the player lines. The winner percentages are free for everyone 2h before tip-off ·

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Every percentage of our model from 48 hours before kick-off: result, double chance, both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, yellow card and corner lines, and our Top 5 picks as soon as they are out. Cancel any time.

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with a Dallas Mavericks win, mainly because Oklahoma City Thunder are missing so much: Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams are Out, Cason Wallace and Alex Caruso too, and Ajay Mitchell is Questionable. The clearest argument against is that Oklahoma City are plainly the stronger team on our ratings, 4‑0 and winners of three of the last five meetings. Dallas are 0‑1 at home this season and only 26th on our rating, so home court counts for little. The pick holds because the absences cut into that edge, and Dallas's fast pace asks more of a shortened side. The call is narrow.

Total points: Our model reads the total as below the league average: both sides' games have been scoring at a low rate on each possession, and the injury report takes more scoring out of the picture.

Game summary

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder lands in the NBA regular season on Wednesday 28 October 2026, with our model backing a Dallas Mavericks win and a low-scoring night.

Latest news

Official injury report

Dallas Mavericks

  • Questionable Kyrie Irving (key player)
  • Questionable Naji Marshall (rotation regular)
  • Doubtful Santi Aldama (rotation regular)
  • Out Dereck Lively II (rotation regular)
  • Questionable Caleb Martin (rotation regular)
  • Out Sergio de Larrea (rotation regular)

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Out Chet Holmgren (key player)
  • Questionable Ajay Mitchell (rotation regular)
  • Out Jalen Williams (rotation regular)
  • Out Cason Wallace (rotation regular)
  • Out Alex Caruso (rotation regular)

The report of 27 Oct, 21:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Last five games

Dallas Mavericks

  • W 113-109 at Miami Heat (A) 26 Oct
  • L 106-122 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 25 Oct
  • W 121-105 at Indiana Pacers (A) 23 Oct
  • L 110-128 at Houston Rockets (A) 22 Oct

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • W 125-114 vs Phoenix Suns (H) 27 Oct
  • W 108-101 vs LA Clippers (H) 25 Oct
  • W 96-84 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 23 Oct
  • W 116-104 at San Antonio Spurs (A) 21 Oct

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Team facts

DALOKC
Record 2-2 4-0
At home 0-1 3-0
On the road 2-1 1-0
Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference 4 of 15, Western Conference
Streak – Won 4 in a row
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #26 of 30 #8 of 30
Pace #5 of 30 #19 of 30

Last meetings

  • 2 Mar 2026Dallas Mavericks 87-100 Oklahoma City Thunder
  • 6 Dec 2025Oklahoma City Thunder 132-111 Dallas Mavericks
  • 28 Oct 2025Dallas Mavericks 94-101 Oklahoma City Thunder
  • 24 Jan 2025Oklahoma City Thunder 115-121 Dallas Mavericks
  • 18 Jan 2025Dallas Mavericks 106-98 Oklahoma City Thunder

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
City
Dallas

Questions and answers

What time is Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder tips off at 01:30 UK time (21:30 US Eastern time) on Wednesday 28 October 2026, US date.

Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Dallas Mavericks to win, a narrow call. The main reason is the absences on the injury report. It sees the total points below the league average.

Who is out for Dallas Mavericks vs Oklahoma City Thunder?

The official NBA injury report lists Kyrie Irving (Dallas Mavericks): questionable; Naji Marshall (Dallas Mavericks): questionable; Santi Aldama (Dallas Mavericks): doubtful; Dereck Lively II (Dallas Mavericks): out; Caleb Martin (Dallas Mavericks): questionable; Sergio de Larrea (Dallas Mavericks): out; Chet Holmgren (Oklahoma City Thunder): out; Ajay Mitchell (Oklahoma City Thunder): questionable.

How are Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder doing this season?

Dallas Mavericks are 2-2; Oklahoma City Thunder are 4-0.

When did Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder last meet?

On 2026-03-02: Dallas Mavericks 87-100 Oklahoma City Thunder.

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