NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets: Preview and Stats

Saturday 21 November 2026, 03:00 UTC Ball Arena, Denver

Our picks

Our picks for Denver Nuggets vs Houston Rockets come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest Saturday 21 November 2026, 00:00 UTC (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

Denver Nuggets 7 of 10 right (70%)
Houston Rockets 8 of 12 right (67%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage: NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off: Saturday 21 November 2026, 03:00 UTC
Arena: Ball Arena
City: Denver
Since last match: Denver Nuggets: Boston Celtics Houston Rockets: Indiana Pacers
Next match: Denver Nuggets: Chicago Bulls Houston Rockets: LA Clippers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Denver Nuggets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Denver Nuggets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Denver Nuggets

Projected Starters

G Jamal Murray

36.3 MPG 26.2 PPG 5.0 RPG 5.9 APG
C Nikola Jokić

36.3 MPG 23.5 PPG 10.8 RPG 9.0 APG
G Christian Braun

34.3 MPG 12.4 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.4 APG
F Aaron Gordon

29.0 MPG 11.0 PPG 5.0 RPG 2.1 APG
F Cameron Johnson

28.4 MPG 12.1 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.9 APG

Key Bench

G-F DeMar DeRozan

23.6 MPG 10.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 3.0 APG
F Trevon Brazile

19.6 MPG 7.1 PPG 5.6 RPG 0.5 APG
F Spencer Jones

19.0 MPG 5.3 PPG 2.3 RPG 0.3 APG

Houston Rockets

Projected Starters

F Jabari Smith Jr.

35.3 MPG 16.4 PPG 6.9 RPG 2.4 APG
F Kevin Durant

33.8 MPG 20.1 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG
C Alperen Sengun

35.5 MPG 19.9 PPG 9.6 RPG 8.4 APG
G-F Amen Thompson

32.7 MPG 14.7 PPG 6.1 RPG 2.9 APG
G Fred VanVleet

29.9 MPG 14.6 PPG 3.1 RPG 5.0 APG

Key Bench

F Tari Eason

25.5 MPG 9.8 PPG 6.2 RPG 1.5 APG
G Reed Sheppard

19.9 MPG 11.0 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.4 APG
G Marcus Smart

20.6 MPG 8.6 PPG 2.6 RPG 2.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Denver Nuggets

#5 of 30

Net rating +5.4 30d: +3.6

Pace: -1.8 (#18 of 30)

Houston Rockets

#2 of 30

Net rating +7.2 30d: +0.9

Pace: -2.6 (#25 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Denver Nuggets

Net 53

Shot quality (TS%) 59

3PT volume & accuracy 45

Ball security & passing 54

Rebounding control 39

Defensive disruption 52

ORtg 114.5 · DRtg 113.3 · Net +1.2 · TS 59.1%

Houston Rockets

Net 74

Shot quality (TS%) 55

3PT volume & accuracy 52

Ball security & passing 37

Rebounding control 56

Defensive disruption 67

ORtg 114.9 · DRtg 106.4 · Net +8.5 · TS 58.5%

Denver Nuggets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 6W actual vs 5.4W expected (10 GP)

Houston Rockets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 9W actual vs 9.0W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Denver Nuggets

Win rate when leading at HT 5/8 (62%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/6 (33%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 57.0 (51.1%) 2H: 54.6 (48.9%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-1 10+ pt margins: 4-6

Houston Rockets

Win rate when leading at HT 10/11 (91%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/2 (50%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 55.5 (49.6%) 2H: 56.3 (50.4%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 7-2

Pace & total-points trends

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

DEN

HOU

Points scored / game 114.5 114.3

Points allowed / game 113.3 105.8

Average game total 227.8 220.1

Average 1st-half total 114.9 105.2

Possessions / 48 min 99.0 99.4

Games with 220+ pts 6/10 6/10

Games with 230+ pts 5/10 3/10

Games with 240+ pts 4/10 0/10

Scored 115+ pts 4/10 5/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Denver Nuggets

1 day rest

1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Houston Rockets

1 day rest

1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Denver Nuggets

#1 Nikola Jokić C 20.5% pts share

23.5 PPG · 10.8 RPG · 9.0 APG · 1.0 3PM 21.5% FGA
#2 Jamal Murray G 22.9% pts share

26.2 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 5.9 APG · 4.0 3PM 20.0% FGA
#3 Christian Braun G 10.8% pts share

12.4 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.4 APG · 1.6 3PM 11.6% FGA

Houston Rockets

#1 Alperen Sengun C 17.4% pts share

19.9 PPG · 9.6 RPG · 8.4 APG · 0.8 3PM 17.3% FGA
#2 Kevin Durant F 17.6% pts share

20.1 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 3.5 APG · 1.2 3PM 15.1% FGA
#3 Fred VanVleet G 12.8% pts share

14.6 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 5.0 APG · 3.0 3PM 12.7% FGA

Last five games

Denver Nuggets

W 123-118 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 12 Nov
L 100-110 at Houston Rockets (A) 10 Nov
W 114-102 vs Indiana Pacers (H) 7 Nov
W 128-109 vs Toronto Raptors (H) 5 Nov
L 110-118 vs Portland Trail Blazers (H) 3 Nov

Houston Rockets

W 115-108 vs Golden State Warriors (H) 12 Nov
W 110-100 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 10 Nov
L 99-102 at Phoenix Suns (A) 8 Nov
L 107-117 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 5 Nov
W 109-93 vs Boston Celtics (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

DEN · 6W HOU · 4W

Avg total pts: 230.0 DEN avg: 116.0 HOU avg: 114.0 225+ pt games: 5/10 DEN at home: 3-3

9 Nov 2026 HOU 110‑100 DEN
11 Mar 2026 DEN 129‑93 HOU
20 Dec 2025 DEN 101‑115 HOU
15 Dec 2025 DEN 128‑125 (OT) HOU
21 Nov 2025 HOU 109‑112 DEN
13 Apr 2025 HOU 111‑126 DEN
23 Mar 2025 HOU 111‑116 DEN
15 Jan 2025 DEN 108‑128 HOU
8 Dec 2023 DEN 106‑114 HOU
29 Nov 2023 DEN 134‑124 HOU

Season profile comparison

DEN

HOU

Record 6-4 9-3

At home 3-2 6-1

On the road 3-2 3-2

Conference 9 of 15, Western Conference 3 of 15, Western Conference

Streak – Won 2 in a row

Days of rest 1 1

Our team rating #5 of 30 #2 of 30

Pace #18 of 30 #26 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings

#	Team	W	L	PCT	GB	Home	Road	L10	Streak
1	Los Angeles Lakers	11	2	.846	–	5-1	6-1	8-2	W7
2	San Antonio Spurs	10	2	.833	0.5	4-2	6-0	10-0	W10
3	Houston Rockets	9	3	.750	1.5	6-1	3-2	7-3	W2
4	Minnesota Timberwolves	9	3	.750	1.5	5-1	4-2	7-3	W5
5	Portland Trail Blazers	8	3	.727	2.0	3-2	5-1	7-3	W2
6	Golden State Warriors	8	4	.667	2.5	6-1	2-3	8-2	L1
7	Oklahoma City Thunder	8	4	.667	2.5	5-0	3-4	6-4	L2
8	Memphis Grizzlies	7	4	.636	3.0	2-4	5-0	6-4	L1
9	Denver Nuggets	6	4	.600	3.5	3-2	3-2	6-4	W1
10	Dallas Mavericks	7	5	.583	3.5	5-2	2-3	6-4	L1
11	Phoenix Suns	5	6	.455	5.0	5-3	0-3	5-5	W2
12	New Orleans Pelicans	4	8	.333	6.5	3-4	1-4	4-6	L4
13	LA Clippers	2	8	.200	7.5	2-3	0-5	2-8	L1
14	Sacramento Kings	1	10	.091	9.0	0-6	1-4	1-9	L4
15	Utah Jazz	1	11	.083	9.5	1-6	0-5	0-10	L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

More NBA games

Games

Times are UTC.