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NBA · Regular season

Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets: Preview and Stats

Indiana Pacers 4-8
vs
Houston Rockets 9-3
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Our picks

Our picks for Indiana Pacers vs Houston Rockets come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Indiana Pacers 7 of 12 right (58%)
  • Houston Rockets 8 of 12 right (67%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
City
Indianapolis
Since last match
Indiana Pacers: Philadelphia 76ers Houston Rockets: Miami Heat
Next match
Indiana Pacers: Cleveland Cavaliers Houston Rockets: Denver Nuggets

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Indiana Pacers

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Indiana Pacers

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Indiana Pacers

Projected Starters
  • F Pascal Siakam
    32.2 MPG 21.9 PPG 7.2 RPG 4.9 APG
  • G-F Andrew Nembhard
    33.4 MPG 17.1 PPG 2.1 RPG 8.0 APG
  • G-F Aaron Nesmith
    25.7 MPG 12.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Quenton Jackson
    22.7 MPG 10.0 PPG 3.7 RPG 2.7 APG
  • G-F Kelly Oubre Jr.
    23.5 MPG 11.1 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.1 APG
Key Bench
  • F Jarace Walker
    21.7 MPG 7.7 PPG 5.7 RPG 1.7 APG
  • C Jay Huff
    19.0 MPG 7.8 PPG 4.0 RPG 1.0 APG
  • F Obi Toppin
    20.1 MPG 11.7 PPG 5.0 RPG 1.7 APG

Houston Rockets

Projected Starters
  • F Jabari Smith Jr.
    35.3 MPG 16.4 PPG 6.9 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Kevin Durant
    33.8 MPG 20.1 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG
  • C Alperen Sengun
    35.5 MPG 19.9 PPG 9.6 RPG 8.4 APG
  • G-F Amen Thompson
    32.7 MPG 14.7 PPG 6.1 RPG 2.9 APG
  • G Fred VanVleet
    29.9 MPG 14.6 PPG 3.1 RPG 5.0 APG
Key Bench
  • F Tari Eason
    25.5 MPG 9.8 PPG 6.2 RPG 1.5 APG
  • G Reed Sheppard
    19.9 MPG 11.0 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.4 APG
  • G Marcus Smart
    20.6 MPG 8.6 PPG 2.6 RPG 2.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Indiana Pacers

#19 of 30
Net rating -1.8 30d: -0.6
Pace: -0.7 (#8 of 30)

Houston Rockets

#2 of 30
Net rating +7.2 30d: +0.9
Pace: -2.6 (#25 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Indiana Pacers

Net 46
Shot quality (TS%) 50
3PT volume & accuracy 51
Ball security & passing 47
Rebounding control 30
Defensive disruption 52

ORtg 108.8 · DRtg 110.3 · Net -1.6 · TS 57.8%

Houston Rockets

Net 74
Shot quality (TS%) 55
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 37
Rebounding control 56
Defensive disruption 67

ORtg 114.9 · DRtg 106.4 · Net +8.5 · TS 58.5%

Indiana Pacers · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 4W actual vs 5.1W expected (12 GP)
Houston Rockets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 9W actual vs 9.0W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Indiana Pacers

Win rate when leading at HT 4/6 (67%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/9 (11%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.1 (49.3%) 2H: 56.7 (50.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-3 10+ pt margins: 3-5

Houston Rockets

Win rate when leading at HT 10/11 (91%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/2 (50%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (49.6%) 2H: 56.3 (50.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 7-2

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

INDHOU
Points scored / game 111.1 114.3
Points allowed / game 112.7 105.8
Average game total 223.8 220.1
Average 1st-half total 112.0 105.2
Possessions / 48 min 102.1 99.4
Games with 220+ pts 4/10 6/10
Games with 230+ pts 3/10 3/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 0/10
Scored 115+ pts 3/10 5/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Indiana Pacers

2 days rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Houston Rockets

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Indiana Pacers

  • #1 Pascal Siakam F 19.7% pts share
    21.9 PPG · 7.2 RPG · 4.9 APG · 1.7 3PM 18.6% FGA
  • #2 Andrew Nembhard G-F 15.4% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 2.1 RPG · 8.0 APG · 2.9 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Aaron Nesmith G-F 10.8% pts share
    12.0 PPG · 2.0 RPG · 1.8 APG · 1.9 3PM 12.4% FGA

Houston Rockets

  • #1 Alperen Sengun C 17.4% pts share
    19.9 PPG · 9.6 RPG · 8.4 APG · 0.8 3PM 17.3% FGA
  • #2 Kevin Durant F 17.6% pts share
    20.1 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 3.5 APG · 1.2 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Fred VanVleet G 12.8% pts share
    14.6 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 5.0 APG · 3.0 3PM 12.7% FGA

Last five games

Indiana Pacers

  • W 114-101 vs Washington Wizards (H) 12 Nov
  • L 122-125 at Dallas Mavericks (A) 10 Nov
  • L 102-114 at Denver Nuggets (A) 7 Nov
  • W 107-103 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 5 Nov
  • L 104-108 vs Atlanta Hawks (H) 3 Nov

Houston Rockets

  • W 115-108 vs Golden State Warriors (H) 12 Nov
  • W 110-100 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 10 Nov
  • L 99-102 at Phoenix Suns (A) 8 Nov
  • L 107-117 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 5 Nov
  • W 109-93 vs Boston Celtics (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

IND · 7W HOU · 3W
Avg total pts: 235.0 IND avg: 118.8 HOU avg: 116.2 225+ pt games: 7/10 IND at home: 4-1
  • 2 Feb 2026 IND 114‑118 HOU
  • 29 Dec 2025 HOU 126‑119 IND
  • 4 Mar 2025 IND 115‑102 HOU
  • 20 Nov 2024 HOU 130‑113 IND
  • 6 Feb 2024 IND 132‑129 HOU
  • 26 Dec 2023 HOU 117‑123 IND
  • 9 Mar 2023 IND 134‑125 (OT) HOU
  • 18 Nov 2022 HOU 91‑99 IND
  • 18 Mar 2022 HOU 118‑121 IND
  • 23 Dec 2021 IND 118‑106 HOU

Season profile comparison

INDHOU
Record 4-8 9-3
At home 1-4 6-1
On the road 3-4 3-2
Conference 10 of 15, Eastern Conference 3 of 15, Western Conference
Streak – Won 2 in a row
Days of rest 2 1
Our team rating #19 of 30 #2 of 30
Pace #8 of 30 #26 of 30

Inter-conference matchup — both conference tables shown with Play-off (#6) and Play-in (#10) cut lines.

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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