Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 Match report

Bayern München 2-2 Arsenal: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Bayern München

2-2Full time

Arsenal

Wednesday 21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC Allianz Arena, München

Our picks against the result

6 of 13 right

Result Bayern München win47% 2-2
Double chance Bayern München or Arsenal (12)74% 2-2
Both teams to score Yes61% Yes
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.558% 4 goals
More corners Bayern München69% Arsenal (3-5)
Yellow cards Above average 2 yellow cards · league 3.6
Yellow cards 2 yellow cards 3.5 Over57% 4.5 Under62% 5.5 Under78%
Corners Around average 8 corners · league 9.8
Corners 8 corners 8.5 Over57% 9.5 Under55% 10.5 Under65%

Match stats

Bayern München Arsenal

2 Goals 2
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
3 Corners 5

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Bayern München vs Arsenal opens the Champions League league phase, matchday 3, at the Allianz Arena on Wednesday 21 October 2026, and our model goes for a Bayern win, with either side to win and no draw as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Our model's result pick is a Bayern München win, built mainly on their output in the final third and on home advantage. Over their last five matches they have been clearly above the league average for shots, big chances and touches in the box, while Arsenal's recent attacking numbers fall short on shots and big chances. The strongest argument the other way is our long-run strength rating, which puts Arsenal slightly ahead, with both clubs well clear of the Champions League average. That edge is narrow and does not cancel out the volume a home side is creating. It is a moderate call.

Both teams to score: Our model expects goals at both ends: Bayern's attacking output and their habit of scoring and conceding, plus Arsenal's knack of getting into the box, point that way, and the goal model agrees. The stage and venue are the only small caveat.

Form guide

Bayern München

W 6-1 vs RB Leipzig (H) Bundesliga · 17 Oct
D 3-3 at Viking (A) Champions League · 13 Oct
D 2-2 at Augsburg (A) Bundesliga · 10 Oct
W 7-0 vs Union Berlin (H) Bundesliga · 18 Sep
W 2-1 at Elversberg (A) Bundesliga · 13 Sep

Arsenal

W 1-0 at Nottingham Forest (A) Premier League · 18 Oct
W 3-0 vs Lille (H) Champions League · 13 Oct
W 2-1 vs Leeds United (H) Premier League · 10 Oct
L 0-3 at Brighton & Hove Albion (A) Premier League · 19 Sep
W 4-2 at Ipswich Town (A) EFL Cup · 15 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Bayern MünchenArsenal

Attack 97 86 4.0 goals per match this season2.0 goals per match this season

Defence 89 100 1.5 conceded per match this season0.0 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Champions League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.