Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 Match report

Real Madrid 4-1 RB Leipzig: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Real Madrid

4-1Full time

RB Leipzig

Wednesday 21 October 2026, 19:00 UTC Estadio Bernabéu, Madrid

Our picks against the result

8 of 12 right

Result Real Madrid win72% 4-1
Double chance Real Madrid or draw (1X)87% 4-1
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.574% 5 goals
More corners Real Madrid71% Real Madrid (7-1)
Yellow cards Around average 2 yellow cards · league 3.6
Yellow cards 2 yellow cards 3.5 Under52% 4.5 Under71% 5.5 Under85%
Corners Around average 8 corners · league 9.8
Corners 8 corners 8.5 Over65% 9.5 Over55% 10.5 Under56%

Match stats

Real Madrid RB Leipzig

4 Goals 1
1 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
7 Corners 1

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Real Madrid vs RB Leipzig is the Champions League league phase, matchday 3, fixture at the Bernabéu on Wednesday 21 October 2026, and our model goes for a Real Madrid win, with Real Madrid win or draw as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Real Madrid are our pick, and the main reason is the size of the gap in our strength ratings: they sit clearly above the Champions League average, while Leipzig are rated well below it. The goal model reads the matchup the same way, and the Bernabéu adds its usual weight. Little pulls the other way; Leipzig's 6‑0 and 5‑0 home wins are the nearest argument, though the 1‑6 defeat at Bayern München shows where that form runs out. Madrid's shot volume has been below average lately, but their big chances and their presence in the box hold steady, so the call is clear.

Form guide

Real Madrid

W 4-1 vs Sevilla (H) LaLiga · 18 Oct
W 4-3 at Roma (A) Champions League · 14 Oct
W 1-0 vs Villarreal (H) LaLiga · 10 Oct
L 1-2 at Atlético Madrid (A) LaLiga · 20 Sep
W 3-2 at Elche (A) LaLiga · 15 Sep

RB Leipzig

L 1-6 at Bayern München (A) Bundesliga · 17 Oct
W 1-0 vs PSV Eindhoven (H) Champions League · 13 Oct
W 6-0 vs Eintracht Frankfurt (H) Bundesliga · 10 Oct
L 0-2 at Bayer Leverkusen (A) Bundesliga · 20 Sep
W 5-0 vs Hamburger SV (H) Bundesliga · 13 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Real MadridRB Leipzig

Attack 89 43 3.0 goals per match this season1.0 goals per match this season

Defence 86 46 2.0 conceded per match this season2.0 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Champions League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.