Champions League · League phase, matchday 3 Match report

Liverpool 4-3 Villarreal: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Liverpool

4-3Full time

Villarreal

Tuesday 20 October 2026, 19:00 UTC Anfield, Liverpool

Our picks against the result

9 of 13 right

Result Liverpool win69% 4-3
Double chance Liverpool or draw (1X)85% 4-3
Both teams to score Yes63% Yes
Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.573% 7 goals
More corners Liverpool66% Liverpool (7-2)
Yellow cards Around average 2 yellow cards · league 3.6
Yellow cards 2 yellow cards 3.5 Over51% 4.5 Under68% 5.5 Under83%
Corners Around average 9 corners · league 9.8
Corners 9 corners 8.5 Over61% 9.5 Over50% 10.5 Under60%

Match stats

Liverpool Villarreal

4 Goals 3
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
7 Corners 2

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Liverpool vs Villarreal is the Champions League league phase, matchday 3, at Anfield on Tuesday 20 October 2026, and our model backs a home win, with Liverpool win or draw as the double chance.

Why this pick?

Our model leans firmly towards Liverpool, and the main reason is the gap in strength: on our strength rating the hosts sit well clear of the Champions League field, while Villarreal's defence rates among the weakest in the competition. Anfield brings the usual home advantage, and the goal model reads the matchup the same way. Little in the data argues against the pick; the one note of caution is Villarreal's attack, which our model places on the right side of the competition norm and which has already scored five in two games in this phase. Liverpool's defensive record is strong enough to absorb that, so the call is clear.

Both teams to score: Our model expects both teams to score: Villarreal's attack sits above the Champions League average and their defence concedes more than most, while Liverpool's attack is stronger than the norm. Liverpool's solid defence is the counterweight, but it does not outweigh the attacking case.

Form guide

Liverpool

W 2-1 at Brentford (A) Premier League · 17 Oct
W 6-3 at LASK (A) Champions League · 14 Oct
L 0-3 vs Manchester City (H) Premier League · 11 Oct
W 1-0 at AFC Bournemouth (A) Premier League · 20 Sep
W 3-1 vs Tottenham Hotspur (H) EFL Cup · 15 Sep

Villarreal

D 0-0 vs Elche (H) LaLiga · 17 Oct
W 3-1 vs Napoli (H) Champions League · 13 Oct
L 0-1 at Real Madrid (A) LaLiga · 10 Oct
W 3-1 vs Levante (H) LaLiga · 20 Sep
W 3-1 at Málaga (A) LaLiga · 17 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

LiverpoolVillarreal

Attack 83 66 4.0 goals per match this season2.5 goals per match this season

Defence 91 26 2.0 conceded per match this season2.0 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Champions League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.