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Conference League · League phase, matchday 1 Match report

Lugano 3-2 FK Crvena Zvezda: Result, Match Stats and Our Prediction

Lugano crest Lugano
3-2Full time
FK Crvena Zvezda crest FK Crvena Zvezda
AIL Arena, Lugano

Our picks against the result

6 of 12 right

  • Result Lugano win38% 3-2
  • Double chance Lugano or FK Crvena Zvezda (12)74% 3-2
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Under 2.550% 5 goals
  • More corners Lugano47% Lugano (5-3)
  • Yellow cards Around average 6 yellow cards · league 4.4
  • Yellow cards 6 yellow cards 3.5 Over68% 4.5 Under51% 5.5 Under68%
  • Corners Around average 8 corners · league 8.8
  • Corners 8 corners 8.5 Over57% 9.5 Under55% 10.5 Under65%

Match stats

Lugano FK Crvena Zvezda
  • 3 Goals 2
  • 2 Yellow cards 4
  • 0 Red cards 0
  • 5 Corners 3

Goals, yellow and red cards and corners of each club.

Before kick-off

What this page showed before the match: our reasons, form, ratings and records as they were then.

Match summary

Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda opens the Conference League league phase at the AIL Arena on Thursday 15 October 2026. Our model backs a Lugano win, and in the double chance either side to take it, with no draw.

Why this pick?

Our choice is a Lugano win in this Conference League opener, and the main reason is the setting: they play at the AIL Arena, and home advantage counts on a first league-phase night. Over their last five matches they have been creating more shots and big chances than the league average while conceding fewer big chances than the average side. The case against is real: our strength rating puts FK Crvena Zvezda slightly ahead, and both sit clearly above the Conference League average. No single point settles it — the model's overall reading of the matchup keeps Lugano in front, and on that basis the call is narrow.

Form guide

Lugano

  • W 4-0 vs Luzern (H) Super League · 10 Oct
  • W 4-0 at Lausanne (A) Super League · 20 Sep
  • W 4-1 vs St. Gallen (H) Super League · 16 Sep
  • D 2-2 vs Young Boys (H) Super League · 12 Sep
  • W 3-1 at Basel (A) Super League · 6 Sep

FK Crvena Zvezda

  • W 3-0 at FK Radnički 1923 (A) Super Liga · 10 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Radnički Niš (H) Super Liga · 20 Sep
  • W 2-1 at Železničar Pančevo (A) Super Liga · 17 Sep
  • W 1-0 at FK IMT Beograd (A) Super Liga · 13 Sep
  • D 0-0 at FK Radnik Surdulica (A) Super Liga · 10 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

LuganoFK Crvena Zvezda
Attack 40 77
Defence 63 77

0 to 100 against this season's Conference League clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

Head-to-head

Lugano and FK Crvena Zvezda have not met in our records since 2010.

Match facts

Competition
Conference League, League phase, matchday 1
Kick-off
Venue
AIL Arena, Lugano

Questions and answers

What was the score of Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

Lugano 3-2 FK Crvena Zvezda in the Conference League (League phase, matchday 1) on Thursday 15 October 2026.

Was the OptimaGoal prediction for Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda right?

Yes: our result pick was Lugano win, and the score after 90 minutes was 3-2. 6 of our 12 picks and markets for this match were right.

How many cards and corners were there in Lugano vs FK Crvena Zvezda?

6 yellow cards (Lugano 2, FK Crvena Zvezda 4), no red cards and 8 corners (Lugano 5, FK Crvena Zvezda 3).

Other Conference League results that day

All results

Times are UTC.