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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks: Preview and Stats

Denver Nuggets 6-4
vs
Dallas Mavericks 7-5
Ball Arena, Denver

Our picks

Our picks for Denver Nuggets vs Dallas Mavericks come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Denver Nuggets 7 of 10 right (70%)
  • Dallas Mavericks 8 of 12 right (67%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Ball Arena
City
Denver
Since last match
Denver Nuggets: Chicago Bulls Dallas Mavericks: Utah Jazz

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Denver Nuggets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Dallas Mavericks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Denver Nuggets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Dallas Mavericks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Denver Nuggets

Projected Starters
  • G Jamal Murray
    36.3 MPG 26.2 PPG 5.0 RPG 5.9 APG
  • C Nikola Jokić
    36.3 MPG 23.5 PPG 10.8 RPG 9.0 APG
  • G Christian Braun
    34.3 MPG 12.4 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Aaron Gordon
    29.0 MPG 11.0 PPG 5.0 RPG 2.1 APG
  • F Cameron Johnson
    28.4 MPG 12.1 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.9 APG
Key Bench
  • G-F DeMar DeRozan
    23.6 MPG 10.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 3.0 APG
  • F Trevon Brazile
    19.6 MPG 7.1 PPG 5.6 RPG 0.5 APG
  • F Spencer Jones
    19.0 MPG 5.3 PPG 2.3 RPG 0.3 APG

Dallas Mavericks

Projected Starters
  • F Cooper Flagg
    35.4 MPG 25.0 PPG 7.3 RPG 7.1 APG
  • F P.J. Washington
    32.4 MPG 14.1 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.1 APG
  • G Kyrie Irving
    31.6 MPG 22.1 PPG 3.4 RPG 4.8 APG
  • F Zaccharie Risacher
    23.3 MPG 8.5 PPG 4.8 RPG 1.5 APG
  • F-C Daniel Gafford
    22.2 MPG 10.3 PPG 5.8 RPG 1.7 APG
Key Bench
  • F Naji Marshall
    22.7 MPG 10.1 PPG 2.7 RPG 4.0 APG
  • G Walter Clayton Jr.
    18.7 MPG 7.7 PPG 3.2 RPG 3.8 APG
  • F Caleb Martin
    18.8 MPG 4.0 PPG 2.2 RPG 1.8 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Denver Nuggets

#5 of 30
Net rating +5.4 30d: +3.6
Pace: -1.8 (#18 of 30)

Dallas Mavericks

#17 of 30
Net rating -1.4 30d: +3.0
Pace: -0.2 (#5 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Denver Nuggets

Net 53
Shot quality (TS%) 59
3PT volume & accuracy 45
Ball security & passing 54
Rebounding control 39
Defensive disruption 52

ORtg 114.5 · DRtg 113.3 · Net +1.2 · TS 59.1%

Dallas Mavericks

Net 54
Shot quality (TS%) 43
3PT volume & accuracy 42
Ball security & passing 28
Rebounding control 58
Defensive disruption 59

ORtg 110.0 · DRtg 108.6 · Net +1.4 · TS 56.8%

Denver Nuggets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 6W actual vs 5.4W expected (10 GP)
Dallas Mavericks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 6.4W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Denver Nuggets

Win rate when leading at HT 5/8 (62%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/6 (33%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.0 (51.1%) 2H: 54.6 (48.9%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-1 10+ pt margins: 4-6

Dallas Mavericks

Win rate when leading at HT 5/5 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/9 (22%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 58.0 (50.2%) 2H: 57.6 (49.8%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-2 10+ pt margins: 5-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

DENDAL
Points scored / game 114.5 112.7
Points allowed / game 113.3 111.3
Average game total 227.8 224.0
Average 1st-half total 114.9 114.5
Possessions / 48 min 99.0 102.5
Games with 220+ pts 6/10 7/10
Games with 230+ pts 5/10 1/10
Games with 240+ pts 4/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 4/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Denver Nuggets

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Dallas Mavericks

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 2

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Denver Nuggets

  • #1 Nikola Jokić C 20.5% pts share
    23.5 PPG · 10.8 RPG · 9.0 APG · 1.0 3PM 21.5% FGA
  • #2 Jamal Murray G 22.9% pts share
    26.2 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 5.9 APG · 4.0 3PM 20.0% FGA
  • #3 Christian Braun G 10.8% pts share
    12.4 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.4 APG · 1.6 3PM 11.6% FGA

Dallas Mavericks

  • #1 Cooper Flagg F 22.2% pts share
    25.0 PPG · 7.3 RPG · 7.1 APG · 1.3 3PM 21.0% FGA
  • #2 Kyrie Irving G 19.6% pts share
    22.1 PPG · 3.4 RPG · 4.8 APG · 3.2 3PM 19.7% FGA
  • #3 Naji Marshall F 9.0% pts share
    10.1 PPG · 2.7 RPG · 4.0 APG · 0.9 3PM 9.4% FGA

Last five games

Denver Nuggets

  • W 123-118 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 12 Nov
  • L 100-110 at Houston Rockets (A) 10 Nov
  • W 114-102 vs Indiana Pacers (H) 7 Nov
  • W 128-109 vs Toronto Raptors (H) 5 Nov
  • L 110-118 vs Portland Trail Blazers (H) 3 Nov

Dallas Mavericks

  • L 94-133 at Minnesota Timberwolves (A) 13 Nov
  • W 125-122 vs Indiana Pacers (H) 10 Nov
  • W 130-93 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 9 Nov
  • W 112-100 vs Utah Jazz (H) 7 Nov
  • L 111-112 at San Antonio Spurs (A) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

DEN · 6W DAL · 4W
Avg total pts: 237.8 DEN avg: 121.8 DAL avg: 116.0 225+ pt games: 7/10 DEN at home: 3-2
  • 25 Mar 2026 DEN 142‑135 DAL
  • 14 Jan 2026 DAL 109‑118 DEN
  • 23 Dec 2025 DAL 131‑130 DEN
  • 1 Dec 2025 DEN 121‑131 DAL
  • 14 Jan 2025 DAL 99‑118 DEN
  • 12 Jan 2025 DAL 101‑112 DEN
  • 22 Nov 2024 DEN 120‑123 DAL
  • 10 Nov 2024 DEN 122‑120 DAL
  • 17 Mar 2024 DAL 107‑105 DEN
  • 18 Dec 2023 DEN 130‑104 DAL

Season profile comparison

DENDAL
Record 6-4 7-5
At home 3-2 5-2
On the road 3-2 2-3
Conference 9 of 15, Western Conference 10 of 15, Western Conference
Streak – –
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #5 of 30 #18 of 30
Pace #18 of 30 #5 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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