OptimaGoal
EN
NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves: Preview and Stats

Oklahoma City Thunder 8-4
vs
Minnesota Timberwolves 9-3
Paycom Center, Oklahoma City

Our picks

Our picks for Oklahoma City Thunder vs Minnesota Timberwolves come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Oklahoma City Thunder 7 of 12 right (58%)
  • Minnesota Timberwolves 8 of 12 right (67%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Paycom Center
City
Oklahoma City
Since last match
Oklahoma City Thunder: Indiana Pacers Minnesota Timberwolves: Brooklyn Nets

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starters
  • G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    32.3 MPG 30.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 4.7 APG
  • G Jared McCain
    27.4 MPG 12.8 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.0 APG
  • G Ajay Mitchell
    28.2 MPG 20.8 PPG 3.9 RPG 3.3 APG
  • F-C Isaiah Hartenstein
    26.0 MPG 8.6 PPG 11.2 RPG 3.9 APG
  • C Aday Mara
    23.1 MPG 9.3 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.6 APG
Key Bench
  • G Bennett Stirtz
    22.0 MPG 9.5 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG
  • G-F Kenrich Williams
    21.5 MPG 7.6 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Alex Caruso
    18.9 MPG 7.4 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.9 APG

Minnesota Timberwolves

Projected Starters
  • F Jaden McDaniels
    33.9 MPG 17.1 PPG 6.2 RPG 3.9 APG
  • G Ayo Dosunmu
    31.6 MPG 18.7 PPG 4.4 RPG 3.2 APG
  • F Jonathan Kuminga
    30.4 MPG 12.6 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.7 APG
  • G LaMelo Ball
    27.9 MPG 19.0 PPG 3.2 RPG 6.4 APG
  • C Rudy Gobert
    28.9 MPG 7.6 PPG 11.4 RPG 1.4 APG
Key Bench
  • G-F Terrence Shannon Jr
    21.6 MPG 10.3 PPG 3.6 RPG 3.3 APG
  • F Trey Lyles
    18.9 MPG 6.2 PPG 4.0 RPG 0.8 APG
  • G Donte DiVincenzo
    24.1 MPG 10.4 PPG 0.0 RPG 0.0 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Oklahoma City Thunder

#14 of 30
Net rating -0.2 30d: -8.9
Pace: -1.5 (#16 of 30)

Minnesota Timberwolves

#9 of 30
Net rating +3.3 30d: 0.0
Pace: -0.2 (#4 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Net 57
Shot quality (TS%) 39
3PT volume & accuracy 37
Ball security & passing 46
Rebounding control 53
Defensive disruption 63

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +2.6 · TS 56.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves

Net 81
Shot quality (TS%) 59
3PT volume & accuracy 58
Ball security & passing 27
Rebounding control 55
Defensive disruption 78

ORtg 114.3 · DRtg 103.4 · Net +11.0 · TS 59.1%

Oklahoma City Thunder · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.6W expected (12 GP)
Minnesota Timberwolves · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 9W actual vs 10.1W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win rate when leading at HT 7/7 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/7 (29%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.3 (52.0%) 2H: 52.9 (48.0%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 6-5

Minnesota Timberwolves

Win rate when leading at HT 9/11 (82%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/3 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 58.2 (49.8%) 2H: 58.6 (50.2%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 8-3

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

OKCMIN
Points scored / game 112.1 118.6
Points allowed / game 109.5 107.2
Average game total 221.6 225.8
Average 1st-half total 109.4 111.4
Possessions / 48 min 101.7 102.7
Games with 220+ pts 6/10 7/10
Games with 230+ pts 2/10 3/10
Games with 240+ pts 1/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 4/10 7/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Oklahoma City Thunder

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Minnesota Timberwolves

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • #1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 27.4% pts share
    30.7 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 4.7 APG · 2.1 3PM 25.5% FGA
  • #2 Ajay Mitchell G 18.6% pts share
    20.8 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 3.3 APG · 1.0 3PM 16.9% FGA
  • #3 Jared McCain G 11.4% pts share
    12.8 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.0 APG · 1.7 3PM 13.5% FGA

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • #1 LaMelo Ball G 16.0% pts share
    19.0 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 6.4 APG · 3.6 3PM 15.6% FGA
  • #2 Ayo Dosunmu G 15.8% pts share
    18.7 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 3.2 APG · 2.1 3PM 15.3% FGA
  • #3 Jaden McDaniels F 14.4% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 6.2 RPG · 3.9 APG · 1.3 3PM 15.3% FGA

Last five games

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • L 108-118 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 12 Nov
  • L 103-123 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-75 vs Washington Wizards (H) 8 Nov
  • W 128-97 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 7 Nov
  • W 124-116 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 5 Nov

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • W 133-94 vs Dallas Mavericks (H) 13 Nov
  • W 115-100 vs Utah Jazz (H) 9 Nov
  • W 115-109 at New Orleans Pelicans (A) 7 Nov
  • W 117-107 at Houston Rockets (A) 5 Nov
  • W 112-100 vs Milwaukee Bucks (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

OKC · 6W MIN · 4W
Avg total pts: 228.8 OKC avg: 116.0 MIN avg: 112.8 225+ pt games: 4/10 OKC at home: 5-1
  • 15 Mar 2026 OKC 116‑103 MIN
  • 29 Jan 2026 MIN 123‑111 OKC
  • 19 Dec 2025 MIN 112‑107 OKC
  • 26 Nov 2025 OKC 113‑105 MIN
  • 28 May 2025 OKC 124‑94 MIN
  • 26 May 2025 MIN 126‑128 OKC
  • 24 May 2025 MIN 143‑101 OKC
  • 22 May 2025 OKC 118‑103 MIN
  • 20 May 2025 OKC 114‑88 MIN
  • 24 Feb 2025 OKC 128‑131 (OT) MIN

Season profile comparison

OKCMIN
Record 8-4 9-3
At home 5-0 5-1
On the road 3-4 4-2
Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference 4 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Lost 2 in a row Won 5 in a row
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #14 of 30 #9 of 30
Pace #16 of 30 #4 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

More NBA games

Games

Times are UTC.