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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns: Preview and Stats

Houston Rockets 9-3
vs
Phoenix Suns 5-6
Toyota Center, Houston

Our picks

Our picks for Houston Rockets vs Phoenix Suns come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Houston Rockets 8 of 12 right (67%)
  • Phoenix Suns 7 of 11 right (64%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Toyota Center
City
Houston
Since last match
Houston Rockets: LA Clippers Phoenix Suns: New Orleans Pelicans

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Phoenix Suns

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Phoenix Suns

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Houston Rockets

Projected Starters
  • F Jabari Smith Jr.
    35.3 MPG 16.4 PPG 6.9 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Kevin Durant
    33.8 MPG 20.1 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG
  • C Alperen Sengun
    35.5 MPG 19.9 PPG 9.6 RPG 8.4 APG
  • G-F Amen Thompson
    32.7 MPG 14.7 PPG 6.1 RPG 2.9 APG
  • G Fred VanVleet
    29.9 MPG 14.6 PPG 3.1 RPG 5.0 APG
Key Bench
  • F Tari Eason
    25.5 MPG 9.8 PPG 6.2 RPG 1.5 APG
  • G Reed Sheppard
    19.9 MPG 11.0 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.4 APG
  • G Marcus Smart
    20.6 MPG 8.6 PPG 2.6 RPG 2.1 APG

Phoenix Suns

Projected Starters
  • G Devin Booker
    34.4 MPG 25.8 PPG 2.4 RPG 5.3 APG
  • G-F Dillon Brooks
    30.1 MPG 15.4 PPG 3.8 RPG 2.3 APG
  • F Miles Bridges
    29.9 MPG 15.3 PPG 7.6 RPG 3.4 APG
  • G Jalen Green
    27.4 MPG 12.0 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.1 APG
  • G Collin Gillespie
    24.8 MPG 8.5 PPG 2.3 RPG 4.3 APG
Key Bench
  • F Oso Ighodaro
    23.1 MPG 5.8 PPG 5.4 RPG 3.6 APG
  • C Khaman Maluach
    19.8 MPG 8.3 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.4 APG
  • F Ryan Dunn
    17.2 MPG 5.5 PPG 4.1 RPG 1.3 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Houston Rockets

#2 of 30
Net rating +7.2 30d: +0.9
Pace: -2.6 (#25 of 30)

Phoenix Suns

#18 of 30
Net rating -1.4 30d: +0.2
Pace: -2.0 (#19 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Houston Rockets

Net 74
Shot quality (TS%) 55
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 37
Rebounding control 56
Defensive disruption 67

ORtg 114.9 · DRtg 106.4 · Net +8.5 · TS 58.5%

Phoenix Suns

Net 48
Shot quality (TS%) 56
3PT volume & accuracy 62
Ball security & passing 53
Rebounding control 29
Defensive disruption 48

ORtg 113.0 · DRtg 113.7 · Net -0.7 · TS 58.7%

Houston Rockets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 9W actual vs 9.0W expected (12 GP)
Phoenix Suns · Record vs point differential Outperforming point differential (close-game luck) 5W actual vs 4.1W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Houston Rockets

Win rate when leading at HT 10/11 (91%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/2 (50%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (49.6%) 2H: 56.3 (50.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 7-2

Phoenix Suns

Win rate when leading at HT 4/5 (80%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/9 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.2 (50.2%) 2H: 54.9 (49.8%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-1 10+ pt margins: 2-7

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

HOUPHX
Points scored / game 114.3 114.6
Points allowed / game 105.8 115.3
Average game total 220.1 229.9
Average 1st-half total 105.2 113.9
Possessions / 48 min 99.4 101.4
Games with 220+ pts 6/10 7/10
Games with 230+ pts 3/10 5/10
Games with 240+ pts 0/10 4/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 5/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Houston Rockets

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 3

Phoenix Suns

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Houston Rockets

  • #1 Alperen Sengun C 17.4% pts share
    19.9 PPG · 9.6 RPG · 8.4 APG · 0.8 3PM 17.3% FGA
  • #2 Kevin Durant F 17.6% pts share
    20.1 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 3.5 APG · 1.2 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Fred VanVleet G 12.8% pts share
    14.6 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 5.0 APG · 3.0 3PM 12.7% FGA

Phoenix Suns

  • #1 Devin Booker G 22.5% pts share
    25.8 PPG · 2.4 RPG · 5.3 APG · 2.4 3PM 20.8% FGA
  • #2 Miles Bridges F 13.4% pts share
    15.3 PPG · 7.6 RPG · 3.4 APG · 1.9 3PM 13.7% FGA
  • #3 Dillon Brooks G-F 13.4% pts share
    15.4 PPG · 3.8 RPG · 2.3 APG · 2.1 3PM 14.2% FGA

Last five games

Houston Rockets

  • W 115-108 vs Golden State Warriors (H) 12 Nov
  • W 110-100 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 10 Nov
  • L 99-102 at Phoenix Suns (A) 8 Nov
  • L 107-117 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 5 Nov
  • W 109-93 vs Boston Celtics (H) 3 Nov

Phoenix Suns

  • W 101-96 vs Charlotte Hornets (H) 13 Nov
  • W 133-110 vs LA Clippers (H) 11 Nov
  • L 96-122 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 10 Nov
  • W 102-99 vs Houston Rockets (H) 8 Nov
  • W 117-104 vs Orlando Magic (H) 6 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

HOU · 8W PHX · 2W
Avg total pts: 218.7 HOU avg: 115.0 PHX avg: 103.7 225+ pt games: 3/10 HOU at home: 4-0
  • 7 Nov 2026 PHX 102‑99 HOU
  • 7 Apr 2026 PHX 105‑119 HOU
  • 5 Jan 2026 HOU 100‑97 PHX
  • 5 Dec 2025 HOU 117‑98 PHX
  • 24 Nov 2025 PHX 92‑114 HOU
  • 30 Mar 2025 PHX 109‑148 HOU
  • 12 Mar 2025 HOU 111‑104 PHX
  • 12 Feb 2025 HOU 119‑111 PHX
  • 2 Mar 2024 PHX 109‑118 HOU
  • 29 Feb 2024 PHX 110‑105 HOU

Season profile comparison

HOUPHX
Record 9-3 5-6
At home 6-1 5-3
On the road 3-2 0-3
Conference 3 of 15, Western Conference 11 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Won 2 in a row Won 2 in a row
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #2 of 30 #17 of 30
Pace #26 of 30 #20 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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