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NBA · Regular season

Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Preview and Stats

Indiana Pacers 4-8
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder 8-4
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Our picks

Our picks for Indiana Pacers vs Oklahoma City Thunder come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Indiana Pacers 7 of 12 right (58%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
City
Indianapolis
Since last match
Indiana Pacers: New York Knicks Oklahoma City Thunder: Miami Heat
Next match
Oklahoma City Thunder: Minnesota Timberwolves

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Indiana Pacers

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Indiana Pacers

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Indiana Pacers

Projected Starters
  • F Pascal Siakam
    32.2 MPG 21.9 PPG 7.2 RPG 4.9 APG
  • G-F Andrew Nembhard
    33.4 MPG 17.1 PPG 2.1 RPG 8.0 APG
  • G-F Aaron Nesmith
    25.7 MPG 12.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Quenton Jackson
    22.7 MPG 10.0 PPG 3.7 RPG 2.7 APG
  • G-F Kelly Oubre Jr.
    23.5 MPG 11.1 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.1 APG
Key Bench
  • F Jarace Walker
    21.7 MPG 7.7 PPG 5.7 RPG 1.7 APG
  • C Jay Huff
    19.0 MPG 7.8 PPG 4.0 RPG 1.0 APG
  • F Obi Toppin
    20.1 MPG 11.7 PPG 5.0 RPG 1.7 APG

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starters
  • G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    32.3 MPG 30.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 4.7 APG
  • G Jared McCain
    27.4 MPG 12.8 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.0 APG
  • G Ajay Mitchell
    28.2 MPG 20.8 PPG 3.9 RPG 3.3 APG
  • F-C Isaiah Hartenstein
    26.0 MPG 8.6 PPG 11.2 RPG 3.9 APG
  • C Aday Mara
    23.1 MPG 9.3 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.6 APG
Key Bench
  • G Bennett Stirtz
    22.0 MPG 9.5 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG
  • G-F Kenrich Williams
    21.5 MPG 7.6 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Alex Caruso
    18.9 MPG 7.4 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.9 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Indiana Pacers

#19 of 30
Net rating -1.8 30d: -0.6
Pace: -0.7 (#8 of 30)

Oklahoma City Thunder

#14 of 30
Net rating -0.2 30d: -8.9
Pace: -1.5 (#16 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Indiana Pacers

Net 46
Shot quality (TS%) 50
3PT volume & accuracy 51
Ball security & passing 47
Rebounding control 30
Defensive disruption 52

ORtg 108.8 · DRtg 110.3 · Net -1.6 · TS 57.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder

Net 57
Shot quality (TS%) 39
3PT volume & accuracy 37
Ball security & passing 46
Rebounding control 53
Defensive disruption 63

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +2.6 · TS 56.2%

Indiana Pacers · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 4W actual vs 5.1W expected (12 GP)
Oklahoma City Thunder · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.6W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Indiana Pacers

Win rate when leading at HT 4/6 (67%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/9 (11%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.1 (49.3%) 2H: 56.7 (50.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-3 10+ pt margins: 3-5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win rate when leading at HT 7/7 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/7 (29%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.3 (52.0%) 2H: 52.9 (48.0%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 6-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

INDOKC
Points scored / game 111.1 112.1
Points allowed / game 112.7 109.5
Average game total 223.8 221.6
Average 1st-half total 112.0 109.4
Possessions / 48 min 102.1 101.7
Games with 220+ pts 4/10 6/10
Games with 230+ pts 3/10 2/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 3/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Indiana Pacers

0 days (Back-to-back)
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Oklahoma City Thunder

0 days (Back-to-back)
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 3

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Indiana Pacers

  • #1 Pascal Siakam F 19.7% pts share
    21.9 PPG · 7.2 RPG · 4.9 APG · 1.7 3PM 18.6% FGA
  • #2 Andrew Nembhard G-F 15.4% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 2.1 RPG · 8.0 APG · 2.9 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Aaron Nesmith G-F 10.8% pts share
    12.0 PPG · 2.0 RPG · 1.8 APG · 1.9 3PM 12.4% FGA

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • #1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 27.4% pts share
    30.7 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 4.7 APG · 2.1 3PM 25.5% FGA
  • #2 Ajay Mitchell G 18.6% pts share
    20.8 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 3.3 APG · 1.0 3PM 16.9% FGA
  • #3 Jared McCain G 11.4% pts share
    12.8 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.0 APG · 1.7 3PM 13.5% FGA

Last five games

Indiana Pacers

  • W 114-101 vs Washington Wizards (H) 12 Nov
  • L 122-125 at Dallas Mavericks (A) 10 Nov
  • L 102-114 at Denver Nuggets (A) 7 Nov
  • W 107-103 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 5 Nov
  • L 104-108 vs Atlanta Hawks (H) 3 Nov

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • L 108-118 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 12 Nov
  • L 103-123 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-75 vs Washington Wizards (H) 8 Nov
  • W 128-97 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 7 Nov
  • W 124-116 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

IND · 4W OKC · 6W
Avg total pts: 226.1 IND avg: 110.9 OKC avg: 115.2 225+ pt games: 5/10 IND at home: 2-2
  • 23 Jan 2026 OKC 114‑117 IND
  • 23 Oct 2025 IND 135‑141 (2OT) OKC
  • 22 Jun 2025 OKC 103‑91 IND
  • 19 Jun 2025 IND 108‑91 OKC
  • 16 Jun 2025 OKC 120‑109 IND
  • 13 Jun 2025 IND 104‑111 OKC
  • 11 Jun 2025 IND 116‑107 OKC
  • 8 Jun 2025 OKC 123‑107 IND
  • 5 Jun 2025 OKC 110‑111 IND
  • 29 Mar 2025 OKC 132‑111 IND

Season profile comparison

INDOKC
Record 4-8 8-4
At home 1-4 5-0
On the road 3-4 3-4
Conference 10 of 15, Eastern Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference
Streak – Lost 2 in a row
Days of rest 0 (second night of a back-to-back) 0 (second night of a back-to-back)
Our team rating #19 of 30 #14 of 30
Pace #8 of 30 #16 of 30

Inter-conference matchup — both conference tables shown with Play-off (#6) and Play-in (#10) cut lines.

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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