NBA · Regular season

Phoenix Suns 101-96 Charlotte Hornets: Result, Game Stats and Our Prediction

Phoenix Suns 4-6

101-96Final

Charlotte Hornets 4-7

Friday 13 November 2026, 02:00 UTC Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix

Our picks

Winner Phoenix Suns

Model probability Phoenix Suns 64% Charlotte Hornets 36%
First half Phoenix Suns ahead

Model probability Phoenix Suns 57% Tie 3% Charlotte Hornets 39%
Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)

Model probability Over 221.5 32%Over 231.5 16%Over 241.5 6%
Phoenix Suns points Below the league average(league average 115.5)

Model probability Over 109.5 47%Over 115.5 28%Over 121.5 14%
Charlotte Hornets points Below the league average(league average 115.5)

Model probability Over 109.5 32%Over 115.5 17%Over 121.5 7%

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band

PHX 104–110

CHA 100–106

Game script Close / clutch finish

1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

Phoenix Suns hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Notable edge
Home-court advantage for Phoenix Suns Slight edge
Charlotte Hornets shorthanded on the official injury report Slight edge
Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Strong under drag

Players

PTSREBAST

Devin Booker Under 25.5 57% Over 2.5 63% Over 4.5 61% G · 33.8 MPG PRA: Over 32.5

Dillon Brooks Over 14.5 54% Over 3.5 50% Under 2.5 70% G-F · 29.8 MPG PRA: Over 20.5

Miles Bridges Under 15.5 62% Under 7.5 71% Under 3.5 70% F · 30.3 MPG PRA: Under 26.5 ★ Top lean: REB

Moussa Diabaté Under 8.5 50% Under 9.5 65% Under 2.5 59% F · 27.7 MPG PRA: Under 20.5

Grayson Allen Over 15.5 53% Over 2.5 51% Under 3.5 57% G · 26.5 MPG PRA: Over 21.5

Naz Reid Under 17.5 51% Under 8.5 68% Under 2.5 61% F-C · 29.2 MPG PRA: Under 28.5 ★ Top lean: REB

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

All probabilities

Winning margin

Expected Phoenix Suns 4.2

Total points212.9

Points per team

Phoenix Suns108.6

Charlotte Hornets104.1

Total points

Over 221.5 / Under 221.532% · 68%

Over 231.5 / Under 231.516% · 84%

Over 241.5 / Under 241.56% · 94%

Phoenix Suns points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.547% · 53%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.528% · 72%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.514% · 86%

Charlotte Hornets points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.532% · 68%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.517% · 83%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.57% · 93%

First-half points

Expected107.7

Over 110.5 / Under 110.541% · 59%

Over 116.5 / Under 116.524% · 76%

Over 122.5 / Under 122.511% · 89%

Why this pick?

Our model favors Phoenix Suns, mainly because it rates them slightly stronger than Charlotte Hornets. There is no meaningful counterpoint in the data. The case for Phoenix is clearly stronger: they are 4‑3 at home while Charlotte are 1‑3 on the road, and the Hornets are without Brandon Miller, Kon Knueppel and Dennis Schröder, all Out. Phoenix have also taken three of the last five meetings, which supports the home side. The call is moderately clear.

Total points: Both sides sit near the bottom of the league on pace, Charlotte 29th and Phoenix 22nd, so possessions should be scarce, and their games produce fewer points per possession. Absences on the injury report lower expected scoring too, which is why our model puts the total below the league average.

Game details

Stage: NBA, Regular season
Tip-off: Friday 13 November 2026, 02:00 UTC
Arena: Mortgage Matchup Center
City: Phoenix
Since last match: Phoenix Suns: LA Clippers (133‑110) Charlotte Hornets: Cleveland Cavaliers (124‑112)
Next match: Phoenix Suns: Los Angeles Lakers Charlotte Hornets: LA Clippers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Phoenix Suns

Low absence load

Missing offense0.0%

Missing minutes0.0%

2 Out / Doubtful

Key sidelined

Mark Williams

Charlotte Hornets

Heavy absence load

Missing offense28.6%

Missing minutes24.0%

4 Out / Doubtful 2 starters out

Key sidelined

Brandon Miller, Dennis Schröder, Hannes Steinbach

Official NBA injury report

Phoenix Suns

Out Mark Williams C Injury · 8.7 PPG · 21.2 MPG
Out Drew Timme F G League · 2.9 PPG · 8.8 MPG

Charlotte Hornets

Out Brandon Miller F Injury · 20.9 PPG · 30.4 MPG
Out Dennis Schröder G Injury · 9.1 PPG · 29.4 MPG
Out Hannes Steinbach F G League · 2.8 PPG · 12.6 MPG
Out Kon Knueppel G-F Injury · 3.0 PPG · 6.0 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 20:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Game rotation & box-score minutes

Top 8 rotation players by minutes played in this game.

Phoenix Suns

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	+/-
Devin Booker G	35	30	1	7	4	-9
Oso Ighodaro F	32	2	3	7	0	+14
Dillon Brooks G-F	30	15	3	1	3	-13
Collin Gillespie G	27	13	2	1	3	+12
Miles Bridges F	25	11	6	3	0	+1
Jordan Goodwin G	24	6	5	2	2	+18
Jalen Green G	21	12	4	0	1	-16
Luke Kennard G	21	8	1	1	0	+16

Charlotte Hornets

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	+/-
Naz Reid F-C	34	16	8	3	1	-10
Grayson Allen G	34	14	4	6	4	-4
Moussa Diabaté F	32	7	13	2	0	0
Sion James G	32	3	8	6	0	+2
Royce O'Neale F	22	7	4	0	2	-1
Coby White G	20	21	3	3	2	-2
Christian Anderson G	18	13	0	2	3	-5
Grant Williams F	16	11	2	1	2	+11

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Phoenix Suns

Net 35

Shot quality (TS%) 52

3PT volume & accuracy 58

Ball security & passing 43

Rebounding control 30

Defensive disruption 44

ORtg 111.1 · DRtg 116.4 · Net -5.2 · TS 58.1%

Charlotte Hornets

Net 12

Shot quality (TS%) 12

3PT volume & accuracy 46

Ball security & passing 12

Rebounding control 77

Defensive disruption 36

ORtg 99.6 · DRtg 113.3 · Net -13.7 · TS 51.5%

Phoenix Suns · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 4W actual vs 3.5W expected (10 GP)

Charlotte Hornets · Record vs point differential Outperforming point differential (close-game luck) 4W actual vs 1.9W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Phoenix Suns

Win rate when leading at HT 4/5 (80%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/9 (0%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 54.9 (49.5%) 2H: 55.9 (50.5%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-1 10+ pt margins: 3-7

Charlotte Hornets

Win rate when leading at HT 5/7 (71%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/8 (12%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 53.2 (52.7%) 2H: 47.7 (47.3%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-1 10+ pt margins: 2-7

Pace & total-points trends

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

PHX

CHA

Points scored / game 112.8 97.7

Points allowed / game 118.1 111.1

Average game total 230.9 208.8

Average 1st-half total 114.5 109.3

Possessions / 48 min 101.5 98.1

Games with 220+ pts 7/10 2/10

Games with 230+ pts 5/10 1/10

Games with 240+ pts 4/10 0/10

Scored 115+ pts 5/10 2/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Phoenix Suns

1 day rest

3 in 4 nights 4 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 6

Charlotte Hornets

2 days rest

2 in 4 nights 2 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Phoenix Suns

#1 Devin Booker G 22.3% pts share

25.1 PPG · 2.7 RPG · 4.8 APG · 2.0 3PM 20.2% FGA
#2 Miles Bridges F 13.3% pts share

15.0 PPG · 7.4 RPG · 3.1 APG · 1.9 3PM 14.1% FGA
#3 Dillon Brooks G-F 13.2% pts share

14.9 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 2.2 APG · 1.9 3PM 14.1% FGA

Charlotte Hornets

#1 Naz Reid F-C 17.5% pts share

17.1 PPG · 8.3 RPG · 1.6 APG · 2.3 3PM 18.6% FGA
#2 Grayson Allen G 15.0% pts share

14.7 PPG · 2.8 RPG · 2.9 APG · 3.3 3PM 11.0% FGA
#3 Coby White G 7.2% pts share

7.0 PPG · 2.0 RPG · 3.8 APG · 0.5 3PM 11.0% FGA

Last five games

Phoenix Suns

W 133-110 vs LA Clippers (H) 11 Nov
L 96-122 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 10 Nov
W 102-99 vs Houston Rockets (H) 8 Nov
W 117-104 vs Orlando Magic (H) 6 Nov
L 119-132 vs Portland Trail Blazers (H) 5 Nov

Charlotte Hornets

W 124-112 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 10 Nov
L 80-119 vs Boston Celtics (H) 7 Nov
L 104-114 at Brooklyn Nets (A) 5 Nov
L 91-124 vs Detroit Pistons (H) 3 Nov
L 104-109 vs Philadelphia 76ers (H) 31 Oct

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

PHX · 8W CHA · 2W

Avg total pts: 224.7 PHX avg: 118.5 CHA avg: 106.2 225+ pt games: 6/10 PHX at home: 5-0

2 Apr 2026 CHA 127‑107 PHX
8 Mar 2026 PHX 111‑99 CHA
12 Jan 2025 PHX 120‑113 CHA
7 Jan 2025 CHA 115‑104 PHX
15 Mar 2024 CHA 96‑107 PHX
29 Dec 2023 PHX 133‑119 CHA
1 Mar 2023 CHA 91‑105 PHX
24 Jan 2023 PHX 128‑97 CHA
2 Jan 2022 CHA 99‑133 PHX
19 Dec 2021 PHX 137‑106 CHA

Season profile comparison

PHX

CHA

Record 4-6 4-7

At home 4-3 3-4

On the road 0-3 1-3

Conference 11 of 15, Western Conference 10 of 15, Eastern Conference

Streak – –

Days of rest 1 2

Our team rating #19 of 30 #24 of 30

Pace #22 of 30 #29 of 30

Standings

Full NBA standings

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Road	Streak
11	Phoenix Suns	4	6	.400	4-3	0-3	–
10	Charlotte Hornets	4	7	.364	3-4	1-3	–

Other NBA results that day

All results

Times are UTC.