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NBA · Regular season

Minnesota Timberwolves 133-94 Dallas Mavericks: Result, Game Stats and Our Prediction

Minnesota Timberwolves 8-3
133-94Final
Dallas Mavericks 7-4
Target Center, Minneapolis

Our picks

  • Winner Minnesota Timberwolves
    Model probability 66% 34%
  • First half Minnesota Timberwolves ahead
    Model probability 59% 3% 38%
  • Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 50%Over 231.5 30%Over 241.5 14%
  • Minnesota Timberwolves points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 63%Over 115.5 43%Over 121.5 25%
  • Dallas Mavericks points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 46%Over 115.5 27%Over 121.5 13%

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
MIN 112–118
DAL 104–110
Game script Single-digit edge
1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Minnesota Timberwolves hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Notable edge
  • Home-court advantage for Minnesota Timberwolves Slight edge
  • Rest-day differential ahead of tip-off Slight edge
  • Missing offensive creators lower projected scoring Lowers total

Players

PTSREBAST
Rudy Gobert Over 7.5 56% Under 12.5 67% Under 1.5 51% C · 30.0 MPG PRA: Under 21.5
Ayo Dosunmu Under 18.5 58% Under 4.5 58% Under 4.5 57% G · 31.6 MPG PRA: Under 27.5
Jaden McDaniels Under 17.5 57% Under 6.5 73% Under 3.5 59% F · 34.4 MPG PRA: Under 27.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Cooper Flagg Under 25.5 58% Under 6.5 52% Under 6.5 65% F · 34.2 MPG PRA: Under 38.5
Kyrie Irving Under 22.5 53% Over 3.5 51% Under 4.5 64% G · 30.6 MPG PRA: Under 30.5
P.J. Washington Under 14.5 69% Under 7.5 63% Under 1.5 63% F · 34.1 MPG PRA: Under 23.5 ★ Top lean: PTS

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

All probabilities

Winning margin

Expected Minnesota Timberwolves 4.8

Total points221.7

Points per team

Minnesota Timberwolves113.4

Dallas Mavericks108.2

Total points

Over 221.5 / Under 221.550% · 50%

Over 231.5 / Under 231.530% · 70%

Over 241.5 / Under 241.514% · 86%

Minnesota Timberwolves points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.563% · 37%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.543% · 57%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.525% · 75%

Dallas Mavericks points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.546% · 54%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.527% · 73%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.513% · 87%

First-half points

Expected112.2

Over 110.5 / Under 110.556% · 44%

Over 116.5 / Under 116.536% · 64%

Over 122.5 / Under 122.520% · 80%

Why this pick?

Our model goes with Minnesota Timberwolves, mainly because it rates them the stronger side once the players expected to play are accounted for — eighth overall against Dallas's fourteenth. The strongest argument the other way sits on the injury report, with Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo both Out. The case for the home side still holds: four straight wins, four of five on their own court, three days' rest against Dallas's two, and all five of the recent meetings between them. That edge in form and in the matchups outweighs the absences, and the call is a moderate one.

Total points: Both teams play at a pace below a typical NBA night and the absences — Anthony Edwards and Donte DiVincenzo for Minnesota, Dereck Lively II and Sergio de Larrea for Dallas — cut the expected scoring further. That is why the total lands below the league average.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Target Center
City
Minneapolis
Since last match
Minnesota Timberwolves: Utah Jazz (115‑100) Dallas Mavericks: Indiana Pacers (125‑122)
Next match
Minnesota Timberwolves: Chicago Bulls Dallas Mavericks: Cleveland Cavaliers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Low absence load
Missing offense6.7%
Missing minutes4.2%
2 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Anthony Edwards, Donte DiVincenzo

Dallas Mavericks

Low absence load
Missing offense1.7%
Missing minutes1.7%
3 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Sergio de Larrea, Dereck Lively II

Official NBA injury report

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • Out Anthony Edwards G Injury · 29.3 PPG · 34.0 MPG
  • Out Donte DiVincenzo G Injury · 10.4 PPG · 24.1 MPG

Dallas Mavericks

  • Out Dereck Lively II C Injury · 4.3 PPG · 16.4 MPG
  • Out Sergio de Larrea G Injury · 7.0 PPG · 13.3 MPG
  • Out Tarik Biberovic Injury

The report of 12 Nov, 19:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Game rotation & box-score minutes

Top 8 rotation players by minutes played in this game.

Minnesota Timberwolves

MIN PTS REB AST 3PM +/-
Ayo Dosunmu G 27 18 2 1 2 +27
LaMelo Ball G 25 22 3 9 6 +24
Jaden McDaniels F 25 16 9 3 0 +26
Jonathan Kuminga F 24 14 8 5 1 +19
Bones Hyland G 23 24 3 8 5 +15
Rudy Gobert C 23 9 6 1 0 +18
Joan Beringer F 22 13 9 0 0 +15
Terrence Shannon Jr G-F 21 6 2 4 0 +5

Dallas Mavericks

MIN PTS REB AST 3PM +/-
Cooper Flagg F 27 12 7 3 1 -21
Kyrie Irving G 27 10 3 4 2 -36
Zaccharie Risacher F 25 22 6 3 4 -6
Naji Marshall F 23 13 1 4 1 -26
Walter Clayton Jr. G 22 5 1 4 0 -15
Caleb Martin F 21 7 2 5 1 -18
P.J. Washington F 16 10 3 0 1 -14
Daniel Gafford F-C 16 3 3 1 0 -17

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Net 76
Shot quality (TS%) 48
3PT volume & accuracy 55
Ball security & passing 31
Rebounding control 60
Defensive disruption 74

ORtg 113.2 · DRtg 103.8 · Net +9.4 · TS 57.5%

Dallas Mavericks

Net 69
Shot quality (TS%) 53
3PT volume & accuracy 47
Ball security & passing 31
Rebounding control 59
Defensive disruption 69

ORtg 112.8 · DRtg 106.0 · Net +6.7 · TS 58.3%

Minnesota Timberwolves · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 8W actual vs 8.8W expected (11 GP)
Dallas Mavericks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 7.0W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

Win rate when leading at HT 8/10 (80%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/3 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.1 (49.6%) 2H: 58.0 (50.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 7-3

Dallas Mavericks

Win rate when leading at HT 5/5 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/9 (22%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 58.2 (50.1%) 2H: 58.0 (49.9%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-2 10+ pt margins: 5-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

MINDAL
Points scored / game 116.8 115.4
Points allowed / game 107.1 108.5
Average game total 223.9 223.9
Average 1st-half total 109.7 114.6
Possessions / 48 min 102.1 102.3
Games with 220+ pts 6/10 7/10
Games with 230+ pts 3/10 1/10
Games with 240+ pts 1/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 7/10 5/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Minnesota Timberwolves

3 days rest
1 in 4 nights 2 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Dallas Mavericks

2 days rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • #1 LaMelo Ball G 15.4% pts share
    18.0 PPG · 3.4 RPG · 6.0 APG · 3.2 3PM 15.4% FGA
  • #2 Ayo Dosunmu G 15.7% pts share
    18.3 PPG · 4.9 RPG · 4.1 APG · 2.0 3PM 14.7% FGA
  • #3 Jaden McDaniels F 14.6% pts share
    17.0 PPG · 5.9 RPG · 3.9 APG · 1.5 3PM 15.4% FGA

Dallas Mavericks

  • #1 Cooper Flagg F 21.8% pts share
    25.2 PPG · 7.1 RPG · 7.4 APG · 1.4 3PM 20.4% FGA
  • #2 Kyrie Irving G 20.7% pts share
    23.9 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 4.6 APG · 3.6 3PM 20.4% FGA
  • #3 Naji Marshall F 9.0% pts share
    10.4 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 4.3 APG · 0.7 3PM 10.3% FGA

Last five games

Minnesota Timberwolves

  • W 115-100 vs Utah Jazz (H) 9 Nov
  • W 115-109 at New Orleans Pelicans (A) 7 Nov
  • W 117-107 at Houston Rockets (A) 5 Nov
  • W 112-100 vs Milwaukee Bucks (H) 3 Nov
  • L 111-121 at San Antonio Spurs (A) 1 Nov

Dallas Mavericks

  • W 125-122 vs Indiana Pacers (H) 10 Nov
  • W 130-93 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 9 Nov
  • W 112-100 vs Utah Jazz (H) 7 Nov
  • L 111-112 at San Antonio Spurs (A) 5 Nov
  • L 100-115 vs Sacramento Kings (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

MIN · 7W DAL · 3W
Avg total pts: 221.2 MIN avg: 113.3 DAL avg: 107.9 225+ pt games: 4/10 MIN at home: 2-2
  • 30 Mar 2026 DAL 94‑124 MIN
  • 20 Feb 2026 MIN 122‑111 DAL
  • 28 Jan 2026 DAL 105‑118 MIN
  • 17 Nov 2025 MIN 120‑96 DAL
  • 22 Jan 2025 DAL 114‑115 MIN
  • 25 Dec 2024 DAL 99‑105 MIN
  • 29 Oct 2024 MIN 114‑120 DAL
  • 30 May 2024 MIN 103‑124 DAL
  • 28 May 2024 DAL 100‑105 MIN
  • 26 May 2024 DAL 116‑107 MIN

Season profile comparison

MINDAL
Record 8-3 7-4
At home 4-1 5-2
On the road 4-2 2-2
Conference 5 of 15, Western Conference 9 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Won 4 in a row Won 3 in a row
Days of rest 3 2
Our team rating #8 of 30 #14 of 30
Pace #7 of 30 #9 of 30

Standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT Home Road Streak
5 Minnesota Timberwolves 8 3 .727 4-1 4-2 W4
9 Dallas Mavericks 7 4 .636 5-2 2-2 W3

Other NBA results that day

All results

Times are UTC.