OptimaGoal
EN
Championship · Matchday 17

Middlesbrough vs Swansea City: Match Preview & Stats

Middlesbrough crest Middlesbrough
vs
Swansea City crest Swansea City
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

  • Middlesbrough: 3 of 7 right
  • Swansea City: 6 of 7 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Championship, Matchday 17
Kick-off
Venue
Riverside Stadium, Middlesbrough
Since last match
Middlesbrough: 3 days (Championship) · Bristol City Swansea City: 3 days (Championship) · West Bromwich Albion
Next match
Middlesbrough: 3 days (Championship) later Swansea City: 4 days (Championship) later

Last starting XI

Middlesbrough 4-3-3

  1. 1 Vítek
  2. 2 Brittain
  3. 4 Phillips
  4. 29 Malanda
  5. 3 Byram
  6. 6 Berhalter
  7. 10 Morris
  8. 8 McGree
  9. 11 Cozier-Duberry
  10. 13 Strelec
  11. 16 Sarmiento

Coach: Kim Hellberg at Watford, 0-0 · Championship · 7 Nov

Swansea City 4-3-3

  1. 22 Vigouroux
  2. 26 Lissah
  3. 5 Cabango
  4. 3 Seelt
  5. 14 Tymon
  6. 17 Franco
  7. 4 Fulton
  8. 6 Stamenić
  9. 49 Yeo
  10. 31 Stewart
  11. 10 Ji-Sung

Coach: Vitor Matos at Birmingham City, 1-2 · Championship · 7 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Middlesbrough

  • DF Alfie JonesInjured · Doubtful
  • MF Rokas PukštasInjured · Late November 2026

Swansea City

  • DF Cameron BurgessInjured · Out for the season
  • DF RonaldInjured · Late November 2026
  • DF Stephen WelshInjured · Doubtful
  • MF Gonçalo FrancoInjured · Doubtful

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Middlesbrough

Low impact
Missing attack share 0.0%
Missing minutes share 1.0%
2 players out

Swansea City

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 9.0%
Missing minutes share 12.0%
4 players out 2 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • DF Stephen Welsh 3% attack · 6% mins
  • DF Ronald 5% attack · 2% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Middlesbrough Swansea City
Box & Territory Pressure 76 37
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 75 34
Finishing Efficiency 54 50
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 28 44
Underlying Play Power 80 47
Middlesbrough Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Swansea City Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Middlesbrough

When scoring first 67% won · 89% unbeaten (9 matches)
When conceding first 80% points rescued · 40% won (5 matches)
1st Half: 40% 2nd Half: 60%
First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 23%

Swansea City

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 38% points rescued · 38% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%
First 15': 18% Last 15' (76-90'): 14%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Middlesbrough

  1. 1. FW Amario Cozier-Duberry 3G · 5A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 18.0%
  2. 2. FW Will Lankshear 8G · 0A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 15.0%
  3. 3. FW Tommy Conway 1G · 4A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 8.0%

Swansea City

  1. 1. FW Žan Vipotnik 3G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 10.0%
  2. 2. FW Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 3G · 0A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 11.0%
  3. 3. FW Joseph Opoku 1G · 2A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 9.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Middlesbrough Swansea City
Over 1.5 goals 8/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 7/10 8/10
Over 3.5 goals 6/10 5/10
Both teams scored 6/10 6/10
Clean sheet 3/10 2/10
Failed to score 2/10 2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 2.2 / 1.4 1.5 / 1.7

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Middlesbrough

  • D 0-0 at Watford (A) Championship · 7 Nov
  • L 0-2 at Wrexham (A) Championship · 4 Nov
  • W 3-0 vs Charlton Athletic (H) Championship · 31 Oct
  • W 5-1 at Bolton Wanderers (A) Championship · 23 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Cardiff City (H) Championship · 17 Oct

Swansea City

  • L 1-2 at Birmingham City (A) Championship · 7 Nov
  • L 1-3 at Portsmouth (A) Championship · 3 Nov
  • W 4-0 vs Blackburn Rovers (H) Championship · 31 Oct
  • L 0-5 at Queens Park Rangers (A) Championship · 24 Oct
  • L 0-1 vs West Ham United (H) Championship · 17 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Middlesbrough

Swansea City

Goals in each 15-minute period, Championship this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Middlesbrough

Player G A
Will Lankshear 13 0
Amario Cozier-Duberry 3 5
Sebastian Berhalter 3 2
Aidan Morris 2 0
Tommy Conway 1 4

Swansea City

Player G A
Adam Idah 4 1
Joseph Opoku 3 2
Žan Vipotnik (2 pens) 3 1
Moussa Kounfolo Yeo 3 0
Eom Ji-Sung 2 3

Goals and assists in the Championship this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Middlesbrough Swansea City
  • 6.1 Corners won 4.2
  • 4.6 Corners conceded 4.7
  • 1.1 Yellow cards 1.6
  • 1.7 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7

Per match in the Championship this season. Average per club and match: 5.2 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

MiddlesbroughSwansea City
Attack 87 52 2.0 goals per match this season1.5 goals per match this season
Defence 83 65 1.3 conceded per match this season1.2 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Championship clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1766Elo #151 Elo rating 1702Elo #239

Head-to-head

9Middlesbrough wins
4draws
8Swansea City wins

21 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 6 Apr 2026 · Championship Swansea City 2-2 Middlesbrough
  • 9 Aug 2025 · Championship Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea City
  • 8 Mar 2025 · Championship Swansea City 1-0 Middlesbrough
  • 10 Aug 2024 · Championship Middlesbrough 1-0 Swansea City
  • 6 Apr 2024 · Championship Middlesbrough 2-0 Swansea City

Table

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Birmingham City 15 852 28:14 +14 29
2 Middlesbrough 15 852 30:19 +11 29
3 Stoke City 15 924 24:18 +6 29
4 Southampton 15 843 29:15 +14 28
5 Wolverhampton Wanderers 15 843 26:18 +8 28
6 West Bromwich Albion 15 843 23:15 +8 28
7 Swansea City 15 825 22:18 +4 26
8 Queens Park Rangers 15 663 24:18 +6 24
9 West Ham United 15 654 37:23 +14 23
10 Sheffield United 15 645 21:19 +2 22
11 Portsmouth 15 645 20:18 +2 22
12 Norwich City 15 708 32:24 +8 21
13 Blackburn Rovers 15 636 22:23 -1 21
14 Cardiff City 15 465 27:27 0 18
15 Wrexham 15 465 18:20 -2 18
16 Millwall 15 537 23:27 -4 18
17 Bristol City 15 537 16:24 -8 18
18 Bolton Wanderers 15 528 20:29 -9 17
19 Charlton Athletic 15 456 13:23 -10 17
20 Watford 15 438 13:23 -10 15
21 Lincoln City 15 438 15:26 -11 15
22 Burnley 15 177 22:31 -9 10
23 Derby County 15 249 14:30 -16 10
24 Preston North End 15 2211 13:30 -17 8

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Championship: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely TitlePromotedPlay-offsRelegated
Middlesbrough 29
Swansea City 26

For members

Every club's chance of every place, from our simulated seasons, updated daily.

Become a member

Every Championship club's projection →

More Championship matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.