NBA · Regular season

Houston Rockets 115-108 Golden State Warriors: Result, Game Stats and Our Prediction

Houston Rockets 8-3

115-108Final

Golden State Warriors 8-3

Thursday 12 November 2026, 02:30 UTC Toyota Center, Houston

Our picks

Winner Houston Rockets

Model probability Houston Rockets 66% Golden State Warriors 34%
First half Houston Rockets ahead

Model probability Houston Rockets 59% Tie 3% Golden State Warriors 38%
Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)

Model probability Over 221.5 44%Over 231.5 24%Over 241.5 11%
Houston Rockets points Below the league average(league average 115.5)

Model probability Over 109.5 59%Over 115.5 39%Over 121.5 21%
Golden State Warriors points Below the league average(league average 115.5)

Model probability Over 109.5 40%Over 115.5 22%Over 121.5 10%

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band

HOU 108–114

GSW 104–110 In range

Game script Single-digit edge

1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

Houston Rockets hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Decisive edge
Home-court advantage for Houston Rockets Slight edge
Houston Rockets shorthanded on the official injury report Minor offset
Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Strong under drag

Players

PTSREBAST

Jabari Smith Jr. Under 17.5 67% Under 6.5 52% Under 2.5 70% F · 35.2 MPG PRA: Under 26.5 ★ Top lean: AST

Amen Thompson Under 14.5 51% Over 6.5 51% Over 3.5 51% G-F · 33.4 MPG PRA: Over 24.5

Kevin Durant Under 21.5 51% Under 6.5 66% Over 3.5 57% F · 34.1 MPG PRA: Under 31.5

Brandin Podziemski Under 16.5 63% Under 5.5 61% Under 4.5 77% G · 33.7 MPG PRA: Under 26.5 ★ Top lean: AST

Stephen Curry Under 30.5 72% Under 4.5 69% Under 4.5 61% G · 29.5 MPG PRA: Under 39.5

Yaxel Lendeborg Under 21.5 66% Under 7.5 66% Under 4.5 71% F · 32.0 MPG PRA: Under 33.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

All probabilities

Winning margin

Expected Houston Rockets 4.9

Total points218.6

Points per team

Houston Rockets112.2

Golden State Warriors106.4

Total points

Over 221.5 / Under 221.544% · 56%

Over 231.5 / Under 231.524% · 76%

Over 241.5 / Under 241.511% · 89%

Houston Rockets points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.559% · 41%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.539% · 61%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.521% · 79%

Golden State Warriors points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.540% · 60%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.522% · 78%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.510% · 90%

First-half points

Expected107.5

Over 110.5 / Under 110.540% · 60%

Over 116.5 / Under 116.523% · 77%

Over 122.5 / Under 122.511% · 89%

Why this pick?

Our model goes with Houston Rockets, and the main reason is the gap between the teams in our ratings: Houston are 1st of 30, Golden State 10th. The strongest counterpoint is small but real — Steven Adams and Clint Capela are both Out for Houston. The pick holds because that ratings edge is large and home court adds a little, with the Rockets 5‑1 in Houston, while Golden State's five straight wins came almost entirely at home and they are 2‑2 on the road. Houston have also won three of the last five meetings. The call is moderate.

Total points: Both teams sit near the bottom of the pace table, 26th and 23rd, and that slower rhythm is the strongest reason our model places this below the league average. The higher points per possession both sides produce pulls the other way, and the absences trim scoring a little more.

Game details

Stage: NBA, Regular season
Tip-off: Thursday 12 November 2026, 02:30 UTC
Arena: Toyota Center
City: Houston
Since last match: Houston Rockets: Denver Nuggets (110‑100) Golden State Warriors: New Orleans Pelicans (138‑87)
Next match: Houston Rockets: Utah Jazz Golden State Warriors: San Antonio Spurs

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Houston Rockets

Low absence load

Missing offense2.6%

Missing minutes3.5%

3 Out / Doubtful

Key sidelined

Clint Capela

Golden State Warriors

Low absence load

Missing offense10.0%

Missing minutes10.7%

5 Out / Doubtful

Key sidelined

Brandon Williams, Jimmy Butler III, Moses Moody

Official NBA injury report

Houston Rockets

Out Clint Capela C Injury · 3.8 PPG · 15.4 MPG
Out Julian Phillips F G League · 3.0 PPG · 8.7 MPG
Out Steven Adams C Injury · 4.0 PPG · 8.0 MPG

Golden State Warriors

Out Moses Moody G Injury · 17.4 PPG · 31.1 MPG
Out Jimmy Butler III F Injury · 21.0 PPG · 29.7 MPG
Out Kristaps Porziņģis F-C Away from team · 16.9 PPG · 25.8 MPG
Out Brandon Williams G Injury · 10.0 PPG · 16.0 MPG
Out Gary Payton II G Injury · 4.4 PPG · 12.9 MPG

The report of 11 Nov, 21:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Game rotation & box-score minutes

Top 8 rotation players by minutes played in this game.

Houston Rockets

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	+/-
Alperen Sengun C	37	19	13	9	1	+11
Jabari Smith Jr. F	35	14	8	0	2	+20
Kevin Durant F	34	20	4	5	1	+17
Fred VanVleet G	30	18	2	6	4	+25
Amen Thompson G-F	29	19	7	4	0	+9
Tari Eason F	22	6	3	0	0	-11
Reed Sheppard G	20	13	1	1	3	-1
Marcus Smart G	17	6	2	1	2	+1

Golden State Warriors

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	+/-
Brandin Podziemski G	37	22	6	4	4	-17
Yaxel Lendeborg F	36	25	10	0	2	-15
Draymond Green F-C	27	7	5	7	1	-20
De'Anthony Melton G	25	11	4	4	3	-5
Al Horford C	21	2	1	4	0	-7
Will Richard G	19	9	4	0	2	-2
Georges Niang F	19	5	5	0	1	-9
LJ Cryer G	18	13	1	1	3	+18

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Houston Rockets

Net 73

Shot quality (TS%) 56

3PT volume & accuracy 52

Ball security & passing 34

Rebounding control 59

Defensive disruption 66

ORtg 114.4 · DRtg 106.2 · Net +8.2 · TS 58.7%

Golden State Warriors

Net 84

Shot quality (TS%) 83

3PT volume & accuracy 84

Ball security & passing 28

Rebounding control 56

Defensive disruption 64

ORtg 118.9 · DRtg 106.9 · Net +12.0 · TS 62.6%

Houston Rockets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 8.3W expected (11 GP)

Golden State Warriors · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 8.3W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Houston Rockets

Win rate when leading at HT 9/10 (90%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/3 (33%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 55.2 (49.6%) 2H: 56.1 (50.4%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-3 10+ pt margins: 7-2

Golden State Warriors

Win rate when leading at HT 5/5 (100%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/8 (25%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 55.5 (46.9%) 2H: 62.8 (53.1%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 4-2 10+ pt margins: 5-2

Pace & total-points trends

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

HOU

GSW

Points scored / game 114.2 121.9

Points allowed / game 106.0 109.6

Average game total 220.2 231.5

Average 1st-half total 106.5 110.8

Possessions / 48 min 99.8 101.4

Games with 220+ pts 6/10 8/10

Games with 230+ pts 3/10 5/10

Games with 240+ pts 0/10 3/10

Scored 115+ pts 4/10 8/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Houston Rockets

1 day rest

2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Golden State Warriors

1 day rest

2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Houston Rockets

#1 Alperen Sengun C 18.5% pts share

21.1 PPG · 8.9 RPG · 8.1 APG · 0.9 3PM 18.4% FGA
#2 Kevin Durant F 17.6% pts share

20.1 PPG · 6.3 RPG · 3.5 APG · 1.3 3PM 14.5% FGA
#3 Fred VanVleet G 12.3% pts share

14.1 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 4.9 APG · 2.9 3PM 13.0% FGA

Golden State Warriors

#1 Stephen Curry G 25.8% pts share

31.5 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 4.8 APG · 5.0 3PM 20.7% FGA
#2 Yaxel Lendeborg F 18.3% pts share

22.3 PPG · 7.6 RPG · 4.2 APG · 2.6 3PM 16.3% FGA
#3 Brandin Podziemski G 13.8% pts share

16.8 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 4.2 APG · 2.8 3PM 14.8% FGA

Last five games

Houston Rockets

W 110-100 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 10 Nov
L 99-102 at Phoenix Suns (A) 8 Nov
L 107-117 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 5 Nov
W 109-93 vs Boston Celtics (H) 3 Nov
W 119-98 vs Oklahoma City Thunder (H) 1 Nov

Golden State Warriors

W 138-87 vs New Orleans Pelicans (H) 10 Nov
W 126-119 vs Orlando Magic (H) 8 Nov
W 120-100 vs Miami Heat (H) 6 Nov
W 116-113 vs Phoenix Suns (H) 3 Nov
W 124-112 vs LA Clippers (H) 2 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

HOU · 5W GSW · 5W

Avg total pts: 212.1 HOU avg: 106.2 GSW avg: 105.9 225+ pt games: 3/10 HOU at home: 2-3

5 Apr 2026 GSW 116‑117 HOU
5 Mar 2026 HOU 113‑115 (OT) GSW
26 Nov 2025 GSW 100‑104 HOU
4 May 2025 HOU 89‑103 GSW
2 May 2025 GSW 107‑115 HOU
30 Apr 2025 HOU 131‑116 GSW
28 Apr 2025 GSW 109‑106 HOU
26 Apr 2025 GSW 104‑93 HOU
23 Apr 2025 HOU 109‑94 GSW
20 Apr 2025 HOU 85‑95 GSW

Season profile comparison

HOU

GSW

Record 8-3 8-3

At home 5-1 6-1

On the road 3-2 2-2

Conference 5 of 15, Western Conference 4 of 15, Western Conference

Streak – Won 5 in a row

Days of rest 1 1

Our team rating #1 of 30 #10 of 30

Pace #26 of 30 #23 of 30

Standings

Full NBA standings

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Road	Streak
5	Houston Rockets	8	3	.727	5-1	3-2	–
4	Golden State Warriors	8	3	.727	6-1	2-2	W5

Other NBA results that day

All results

Times are UTC.