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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Houston Rockets vs Utah Jazz Prediction and Preview

Houston Rockets 9-3
vs
Utah Jazz 1-11
Toyota Center, Houston

Our picks

  • Winner Houston Rockets
    Model probability 88% 12%
  • First half Houston Rockets ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • Houston Rockets points Above the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Utah Jazz points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
HOU 116–122
UTA 100–106
Game script Double-digit margin lean
1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Houston Rockets hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Decisive edge
  • Home-court advantage for Houston Rockets Slight edge
  • Houston Rockets shorthanded on the official injury report Minor offset
  • Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Strong under drag

Players

PTSREBAST
Alperen Sengun Under 21.5 Under 9.5 Under 7.5 C · 35.0 MPG PRA: Under 38.5
Jabari Smith Jr. Under 16.5 Under 6.5 Under 2.5 F · 35.3 MPG PRA: Under 25.5 ★ Top lean: AST
Amen Thompson Under 15.5 Under 6.5 Over 3.5 G-F · 32.7 MPG PRA: Over 25.5
Ace Bailey Over 13.5 Under 6.5 Over 1.5 F · 32.6 MPG PRA: Over 21.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Keyonte George Under 20.5 Under 4.5 Under 6.5 G · 32.5 MPG PRA: Under 31.5
Darryn Peterson Under 16.5 Under 4.5 Over 3.5 G · 31.0 MPG PRA: Under 24.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model backs the Houston Rockets because it rates them far above the Utah Jazz on team results and on the players expected to play: second of 30 against 29th, 9‑3 against 1‑11. The point against is Houston's injury report, with Steven Adams and Clint Capela both Out. That concern is small next to the gap in quality, and the head-to-head backs Houston too, four wins in the last five meetings, three of them by wide margins. A 6‑1 home record against a Jazz team that is 0‑5 on the road and has lost five in a row makes the call clear.

Total points: The total sits below the league average mainly because these two teams play slower than a typical NBA game, Houston 26th of 30 in pace. More points per possession than usual and the injury absences push the other way, but not enough to turn it.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 17 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 80% and 100%, it was right 100% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Houston Rockets 8 of 12 right (67%)
  • Utah Jazz 10 of 12 right (83%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Toyota Center
City
Houston
Since last match
Houston Rockets: Golden State Warriors (115‑108) Utah Jazz: Orlando Magic (108‑123)
Next match
Houston Rockets: Washington Wizards Utah Jazz: San Antonio Spurs

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Houston Rockets

Low absence load
Missing offense7.5%
Missing minutes9.2%
4 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Marcus Smart, Clint Capela, Steven Adams

Utah Jazz

Moderate absence load
Missing offense11.0%
Missing minutes9.0%
4 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Lauri Markkanen, Jusuf Nurkić, Jaren Jackson Jr.

Official NBA injury report

Houston Rockets

  • Out Steven Adams C Injury · 5.9 PPG · 24.0 MPG
  • Out Marcus Smart G Suspension · 8.6 PPG · 20.6 MPG
  • Out Clint Capela C Injury · 3.8 PPG · 15.4 MPG
  • Out Julian Phillips F G League · 3.0 PPG · 8.7 MPG

Utah Jazz

  • Out Lauri Markkanen F-C Injury · 18.3 PPG · 29.5 MPG
  • Out Jusuf Nurkić C Injury · 12.4 PPG · 28.4 MPG
  • Out Jaren Jackson Jr. F-C Injury · 13.0 PPG · 21.5 MPG
  • Out Trey Alexander G G League · 5.2 PPG · 12.3 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Houston Rockets

Projected Starters
  • F Jabari Smith Jr.
    35.3 MPG 16.4 PPG 6.9 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Kevin Durant
    33.8 MPG 20.1 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG
  • C Alperen Sengun
    35.5 MPG 19.9 PPG 9.6 RPG 8.4 APG
  • G-F Amen Thompson
    32.7 MPG 14.7 PPG 6.1 RPG 2.9 APG
  • G Fred VanVleet
    29.9 MPG 14.6 PPG 3.1 RPG 5.0 APG
Key Bench
  • F Tari Eason
    25.5 MPG 9.8 PPG 6.2 RPG 1.5 APG
  • G Reed Sheppard
    19.9 MPG 11.0 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.4 APG
  • G Bogdan Bogdanović
    11.2 MPG 5.0 PPG 1.2 RPG 0.9 APG

Utah Jazz

Projected Starters
  • F Ace Bailey
    32.6 MPG 14.2 PPG 6.8 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Keyonte George
    32.6 MPG 20.3 PPG 5.1 RPG 6.2 APG
  • G Darryn Peterson
    31.0 MPG 17.1 PPG 4.1 RPG 4.3 APG
  • F-C Jaxson Hayes
    24.8 MPG 8.0 PPG 6.3 RPG 1.4 APG
  • G Josh Green
    20.0 MPG 3.6 PPG 1.8 RPG 1.1 APG
Key Bench
  • G Josh Okogie
    19.5 MPG 4.4 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.2 APG
  • C Mo Bamba
    17.6 MPG 7.2 PPG 5.5 RPG 0.6 APG
  • G Isaiah Collier
    15.8 MPG 6.9 PPG 3.7 RPG 3.9 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Houston Rockets

#2 of 30
Net rating +7.2 30d: +0.9
Pace: -2.6 (#25 of 30)

Utah Jazz

#29 of 30
Net rating -6.5 30d: -2.6
Pace: -1.4 (#14 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Houston Rockets

Net 74
Shot quality (TS%) 55
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 37
Rebounding control 56
Defensive disruption 67

ORtg 114.9 · DRtg 106.4 · Net +8.5 · TS 58.5%

Utah Jazz

Net 18
Shot quality (TS%) 20
3PT volume & accuracy 38
Ball security & passing 19
Rebounding control 55
Defensive disruption 60

ORtg 101.3 · DRtg 112.7 · Net -11.4 · TS 53.4%

Houston Rockets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 9W actual vs 9.0W expected (12 GP)
Utah Jazz · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 1W actual vs 2.3W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Houston Rockets

Win rate when leading at HT 10/11 (91%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/2 (50%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (49.6%) 2H: 56.3 (50.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 7-2

Utah Jazz

Win rate when leading at HT 2/4 (50%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/10 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.2 (49.6%) 2H: 56.1 (50.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-3 10+ pt margins: 1-8

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

HOUUTA
Points scored / game 114.3 105.6
Points allowed / game 105.8 117.5
Average game total 220.1 223.1
Average 1st-half total 105.2 111.4
Possessions / 48 min 99.4 102.1
Games with 220+ pts 6/10 5/10
Games with 230+ pts 3/10 3/10
Games with 240+ pts 0/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 1/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Houston Rockets

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 3

Utah Jazz

1 day rest
3 in 4 nights 4 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Houston Rockets

  • #1 Alperen Sengun C 17.4% pts share
    19.9 PPG · 9.6 RPG · 8.4 APG · 0.8 3PM 17.3% FGA
  • #2 Kevin Durant F 17.6% pts share
    20.1 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 3.5 APG · 1.2 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Fred VanVleet G 12.8% pts share
    14.6 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 5.0 APG · 3.0 3PM 12.7% FGA

Utah Jazz

  • #1 Keyonte George G 19.2% pts share
    20.3 PPG · 5.1 RPG · 6.2 APG · 1.4 3PM 18.3% FGA
  • #2 Darryn Peterson G 16.2% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 4.3 APG · 2.4 3PM 17.1% FGA
  • #3 Ace Bailey F 13.4% pts share
    14.2 PPG · 6.8 RPG · 1.8 APG · 1.5 3PM 14.3% FGA

Last five games

Houston Rockets

  • W 115-108 vs Golden State Warriors (H) 12 Nov
  • W 110-100 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 10 Nov
  • L 99-102 at Phoenix Suns (A) 8 Nov
  • L 107-117 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 5 Nov
  • W 109-93 vs Boston Celtics (H) 3 Nov

Utah Jazz

  • L 108-123 vs Orlando Magic (H) 12 Nov
  • L 109-115 vs Miami Heat (H) 11 Nov
  • L 100-115 at Minnesota Timberwolves (A) 9 Nov
  • L 100-112 at Dallas Mavericks (A) 7 Nov
  • L 113-120 at New Orleans Pelicans (A) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

HOU · 7W UTA · 3W
Avg total pts: 239.4 HOU avg: 126.7 UTA avg: 112.7 225+ pt games: 9/10 HOU at home: 4-0
  • 3 Apr 2026 HOU 140‑106 UTA
  • 23 Feb 2026 HOU 125‑105 UTA
  • 1 Dec 2025 UTA 133‑125 HOU
  • 30 Nov 2025 UTA 101‑129 HOU
  • 2 Apr 2025 HOU 143‑105 UTA
  • 27 Mar 2025 UTA 110‑121 HOU
  • 22 Feb 2025 UTA 124‑115 HOU
  • 11 Apr 2024 UTA 124‑121 HOU
  • 29 Mar 2024 UTA 100‑101 HOU
  • 23 Mar 2024 HOU 147‑119 UTA

Season profile comparison

HOUUTA
Record 9-3 1-11
At home 6-1 1-6
On the road 3-2 0-5
Conference 3 of 15, Western Conference 15 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Won 2 in a row Lost 5 in a row
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #2 of 30 #29 of 30
Pace #26 of 30 #14 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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