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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

San Antonio Spurs vs Golden State Warriors Prediction and Preview

San Antonio Spurs 10-2
vs
Golden State Warriors 8-4
Frost Bank Center, San Antonio

Our picks

  • Winner San Antonio Spurs
    Model probability 70% 30%
  • First half San Antonio Spurs ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • San Antonio Spurs points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Golden State Warriors points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
SAS 108–114
GSW 104–110
Game script Single-digit edge
1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • San Antonio Spurs hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Decisive edge
  • Home-court advantage for San Antonio Spurs Slight edge
  • Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Strong under drag
  • Missing offensive creators lower projected scoring Strong under drag

Players

PTSREBAST
Dylan Harper Under 18.5 Under 5.5 Under 4.5 G · 31.5 MPG PRA: Under 28.5
Stephon Castle Over 14.5 Under 5.5 Over 5.5 G · 28.7 MPG PRA: Over 25.5
Victor Wembanyama Under 30.5 Under 11.5 Over 2.5 F-C · 29.4 MPG PRA: Under 44.5 ★ Top lean: PTS
Draymond Green Over 3.5 Under 4.5 Under 7.5 F-C · 26.9 MPG PRA: Over 15.5 ★ Top lean: PTS
Brandin Podziemski Under 17.5 Under 5.5 Under 4.5 G · 33.5 MPG PRA: Under 27.5
Yaxel Lendeborg Under 21.5 Under 7.5 Under 3.5 F · 31.9 MPG PRA: Under 32.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

The pick is San Antonio Spurs, mainly because our model rates them third of 30 in the NBA against Golden State's tenth. The counterpoint is thin: the Spurs have been stronger away (6‑0) than at home (4‑2), and Devin Vassell and De'Aaron Fox are questionable. The reasons for the pick clearly outweigh that, and the gap widens with the players available: Tobias Harris is out for San Antonio, but Golden State are without Jimmy Butler III, Stephen Curry, Kristaps Porziņģis, Moses Moody and Brandon Williams. San Antonio have won five straight and took three of the last five meetings, which makes it a moderate call.

Total points: The total points sit below the league average: San Antonio (27th of 30 in pace) and Golden State (25th) both play slowly, and the injury report removes scoring on both sides. Only slightly more points per possession than typical pushes the other way.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 36 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 70% and 80%, it was right 78% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • San Antonio Spurs 10 of 12 right (83%)
  • Golden State Warriors 9 of 12 right (75%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Frost Bank Center
City
San Antonio
Since last match
San Antonio Spurs: Chicago Bulls (119‑124) Golden State Warriors: Houston Rockets (115‑108)
Next match
San Antonio Spurs: Utah Jazz Golden State Warriors: New Orleans Pelicans

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

San Antonio Spurs

Low absence load
Missing offense0.0%
Missing minutes0.0%
2 Out / Doubtful 2 GTD
Key sidelined

Tobias Harris

Golden State Warriors

Moderate absence load
Missing offense23.9%
Missing minutes14.4%
5 Out / Doubtful 1 starter out
Key sidelined

Stephen Curry, Brandon Williams, Jimmy Butler III

Official NBA injury report

San Antonio Spurs

  • Out Tobias Harris F Injury · 17.7 PPG · 34.3 MPG
  • Out Jayden Quaintance Injury
  • Questionable Devin Vassell G-F Injury · 12.8 PPG · 29.6 MPG
  • Questionable De'Aaron Fox G Injury · 13.7 PPG · 29.1 MPG

Golden State Warriors

  • Out Moses Moody G Injury · 17.4 PPG · 31.1 MPG
  • Out Jimmy Butler III F Injury · 21.0 PPG · 29.7 MPG
  • Out Stephen Curry G Injury · 28.9 PPG · 26.8 MPG
  • Out Kristaps Porziņģis F-C Away from team · 16.9 PPG · 25.8 MPG
  • Out Brandon Williams G Injury · 10.8 PPG · 16.9 MPG
  • Probable Charles Bassey F-C Injury · 7.6 PPG · 12.5 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

San Antonio Spurs

Projected Starters
  • G Dylan Harper
    31.5 MPG 17.8 PPG 5.5 RPG 5.1 APG
  • F-C Victor Wembanyama
    29.4 MPG 32.6 PPG 11.4 RPG 2.9 APG
  • G De'Aaron Fox GTD
    29.1 MPG 13.7 PPG 4.1 RPG 5.8 APG
  • G Stephon Castle
    28.7 MPG 12.9 PPG 5.3 RPG 5.4 APG
  • G-F Devin Vassell GTD
    29.6 MPG 12.8 PPG 3.9 RPG 3.5 APG
Key Bench
  • F Julian Champagnie
    25.9 MPG 10.9 PPG 4.1 RPG 1.6 APG
  • G-F Keldon Johnson
    24.9 MPG 7.8 PPG 5.8 RPG 2.5 APG
  • F-C Luke Kornet
    15.0 MPG 3.0 PPG 4.7 RPG 1.2 APG

Golden State Warriors

Projected Starters
  • G Brandin Podziemski
    33.6 MPG 17.2 PPG 5.4 RPG 4.3 APG
  • F Yaxel Lendeborg
    31.9 MPG 23.0 PPG 7.3 RPG 3.6 APG
  • F-C Draymond Green
    27.1 MPG 3.1 PPG 5.0 RPG 7.6 APG
  • G De'Anthony Melton
    22.8 MPG 11.1 PPG 4.8 RPG 2.6 APG
  • F Georges Niang
    21.1 MPG 8.5 PPG 3.2 RPG 1.6 APG
Key Bench
  • G Will Richard
    18.6 MPG 5.8 PPG 1.9 RPG 1.0 APG
  • C Al Horford
    17.9 MPG 5.5 PPG 3.5 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Gui Santos
    17.3 MPG 4.6 PPG 3.7 RPG 1.6 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

San Antonio Spurs

#3 of 30
Net rating +6.9 30d: -1.1
Pace: -2.7 (#27 of 30)

Golden State Warriors

#10 of 30
Net rating +2.0 30d: +5.0
Pace: -2.3 (#24 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

San Antonio Spurs

Net 91
Shot quality (TS%) 54
3PT volume & accuracy 47
Ball security & passing 72
Rebounding control 66
Defensive disruption 76

ORtg 119.5 · DRtg 104.8 · Net +14.7 · TS 58.4%

Golden State Warriors

Net 83
Shot quality (TS%) 82
3PT volume & accuracy 85
Ball security & passing 33
Rebounding control 60
Defensive disruption 61

ORtg 119.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +11.6 · TS 62.4%

San Antonio Spurs · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 10W actual vs 9.6W expected (12 GP)
Golden State Warriors · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 8.6W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

San Antonio Spurs

Win rate when leading at HT 7/9 (78%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 4/6 (67%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 61.3 (52.8%) 2H: 54.7 (47.2%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 4-3 10+ pt margins: 7-1

Golden State Warriors

Win rate when leading at HT 5/5 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/8 (25%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (47.2%) 2H: 62.1 (52.8%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 4-2 10+ pt margins: 5-2

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

SASGSW
Points scored / game 121.6 121.9
Points allowed / game 106.6 110.0
Average game total 228.2 231.9
Average 1st-half total 119.3 109.9
Possessions / 48 min 100.7 101.1
Games with 220+ pts 8/10 9/10
Games with 230+ pts 4/10 5/10
Games with 240+ pts 1/10 3/10
Scored 115+ pts 9/10 8/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

San Antonio Spurs

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Golden State Warriors

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 2

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

San Antonio Spurs

  • #1 Victor Wembanyama F-C 26.8% pts share
    32.6 PPG · 11.4 RPG · 2.9 APG · 2.1 3PM 22.7% FGA
  • #2 Dylan Harper G 14.6% pts share
    17.8 PPG · 5.5 RPG · 5.1 APG · 1.3 3PM 14.7% FGA
  • #3 De'Aaron Fox G GTD 11.3% pts share
    13.7 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 5.8 APG · 1.1 3PM 9.9% FGA

Golden State Warriors

  • #1 Yaxel Lendeborg F 18.9% pts share
    23.0 PPG · 7.3 RPG · 3.6 APG · 2.7 3PM 17.1% FGA
  • #2 Brandin Podziemski G 14.1% pts share
    17.2 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 4.3 APG · 3.0 3PM 14.4% FGA
  • #3 De'Anthony Melton G 9.1% pts share
    11.1 PPG · 4.8 RPG · 2.6 APG · 2.5 3PM 9.5% FGA

Last five games

San Antonio Spurs

  • W 124-119 at Chicago Bulls (A) 12 Nov
  • W 122-96 at Phoenix Suns (A) 10 Nov
  • W 125-103 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 8 Nov
  • W 124-109 at Sacramento Kings (A) 7 Nov
  • W 112-111 vs Dallas Mavericks (H) 5 Nov

Golden State Warriors

  • L 108-115 at Houston Rockets (A) 12 Nov
  • W 138-87 vs New Orleans Pelicans (H) 10 Nov
  • W 126-119 vs Orlando Magic (H) 8 Nov
  • W 120-100 vs Miami Heat (H) 6 Nov
  • W 116-113 vs Phoenix Suns (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

SAS · 5W GSW · 5W
Avg total pts: 230.1 SAS avg: 114.6 GSW avg: 115.5 225+ pt games: 7/10 SAS at home: 1-5
  • 1 Apr 2026 GSW 113‑127 SAS
  • 11 Feb 2026 GSW 113‑126 SAS
  • 14 Nov 2025 SAS 108‑109 GSW
  • 12 Nov 2025 SAS 120‑125 GSW
  • 9 Apr 2025 GSW 111‑114 SAS
  • 30 Mar 2025 SAS 106‑148 GSW
  • 23 Nov 2024 SAS 104‑94 GSW
  • 31 Mar 2024 SAS 113‑117 GSW
  • 11 Mar 2024 SAS 102‑112 GSW
  • 9 Mar 2024 GSW 113‑126 SAS

Season profile comparison

SASGSW
Record 10-2 8-4
At home 4-2 6-1
On the road 6-0 2-3
Conference 2 of 15, Western Conference 6 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Won 5 in a row –
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #3 of 30 #10 of 30
Pace #27 of 30 #25 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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