NBA · Regular season

Portland Trail Blazers 118-108 Oklahoma City Thunder: Result, Game Stats and Our Prediction

Portland Trail Blazers 7-3

118-108Final

Oklahoma City Thunder 8-3

Thursday 12 November 2026, 03:00 UTC Moda Center, Portland

Our picks

Winner Portland Trail Blazers

Model probability Portland Trail Blazers 67% Oklahoma City Thunder 33%
First half Portland Trail Blazers ahead

Model probability Portland Trail Blazers 59% Tie 3% Oklahoma City Thunder 38%
Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)

Model probability Over 221.5 43%Over 231.5 24%Over 241.5 11%
Portland Trail Blazers points Below the league average(league average 115.5)

Model probability Over 109.5 57%Over 115.5 37%Over 121.5 20%
Oklahoma City Thunder points Below the league average(league average 115.5)

Model probability Over 109.5 41%Over 115.5 23%Over 121.5 11%

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band

POR 108–114

OKC 104–110 In range

Game script Single-digit edge

1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

Oklahoma City Thunder shorthanded on the official injury report Notable edge
Home-court advantage for Portland Trail Blazers Slight edge
Portland Trail Blazers hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Slight edge
Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Lowers total

Players

PTSREBAST

Toumani Camara Under 13.5 65% Over 3.5 53% Under 1.5 55% F · 27.5 MPG PRA: Under 18.5 ★ Top lean: PTS

Deni Avdija Under 22.5 54% Under 6.5 58% Under 6.5 57% F · 32.3 MPG PRA: Under 35.5

Damian Lillard Under 20.5 57% Under 3.5 55% Over 4.5 53% G · 28.9 MPG PRA: Under 28.5

Isaiah Hartenstein Over 6.5 58% Under 10.5 62% Under 3.5 62% F-C · 24.9 MPG PRA: Under 20.5

Jared McCain Under 12.5 53% Under 3.5 62% Under 1.5 52% G · 26.1 MPG PRA: Under 17.5

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 57% Under 4.5 65% Over 4.5 70% G · 32.2 MPG PRA: Under 38.5 ★ Top lean: AST

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

All probabilities

Winning margin

Expected Portland Trail Blazers 5.0

Total points218.4

Points per team

Portland Trail Blazers111.6

Oklahoma City Thunder106.8

Total points

Over 221.5 / Under 221.543% · 57%

Over 231.5 / Under 231.524% · 76%

Over 241.5 / Under 241.511% · 89%

Portland Trail Blazers points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.557% · 43%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.537% · 63%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.520% · 80%

Oklahoma City Thunder points

Over 109.5 / Under 109.541% · 59%

Over 115.5 / Under 115.523% · 77%

Over 121.5 / Under 121.511% · 89%

First-half points

Expected109.1

Over 110.5 / Under 110.546% · 55%

Over 116.5 / Under 116.527% · 73%

Over 122.5 / Under 122.514% · 86%

Why this pick?

Portland Trail Blazers win, and the main reason sits in Oklahoma City Thunder's injury report: Chet Holmgren is out, and Ajay Mitchell and Jalen Williams are out as well. Nothing in the data pulls the other way. Home court counts for a little, and our ratings put Portland slightly ahead of Oklahoma City on team results and on the players expected to play. Both teams arrive on the second night of a back-to-back, and Portland have taken three of their last five. The call is of moderate clarity.

Total points: Our model places the total points below the league average, since this matchup is built on a heavier, more deliberate tempo than the NBA norm. The players missing per the injury report shave a little more off expected scoring.

Game details

Stage: NBA, Regular season
Tip-off: Thursday 12 November 2026, 03:00 UTC
Arena: Moda Center
City: Portland
Since last match: Portland Trail Blazers: Oklahoma City Thunder (123‑103) Oklahoma City Thunder: Portland Trail Blazers (123‑103)
Next match: Portland Trail Blazers: Sacramento Kings Oklahoma City Thunder: LA Clippers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Portland Trail Blazers

Low absence load

Missing offense10.8%

Missing minutes10.7%

4 Out / Doubtful

Key sidelined

Ja Morant, Chris Youngblood, Shaedon Sharpe

Oklahoma City Thunder

Heavy absence load

Missing offense24.6%

Missing minutes22.6%

6 Out / Doubtful 1 starter out

Key sidelined

Ajay Mitchell, Jalen Williams, Jaylin Williams

Official NBA injury report

Portland Trail Blazers

Out Ja Morant G Injury · 15.8 PPG · 26.0 MPG
Out Shaedon Sharpe G Injury · 8.6 PPG · 16.6 MPG
Out Chris Youngblood G Injury · 6.0 PPG · 13.5 MPG
Out Vít Krejčí G Injury · 2.7 PPG · 10.1 MPG

Oklahoma City Thunder

Out Jalen Williams G-F Injury · 14.5 PPG · 32.5 MPG
Out Chet Holmgren F-C Injury · 11.0 PPG · 29.5 MPG
Out Ajay Mitchell G Injury · 19.9 PPG · 27.7 MPG
Out Jaylin Williams F Injury · 2.5 PPG · 18.7 MPG
Out Cason Wallace G Injury · 6.5 PPG · 15.0 MPG
Out Thomas Sorber Injury

The report of 11 Nov, 21:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Game rotation & box-score minutes

Top 8 rotation players by minutes played in this game.

Portland Trail Blazers

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	+/-
Toumani Camara F	38	14	5	3	2	+9
Deni Avdija F	35	28	3	6	4	+10
Damian Lillard G	32	18	3	3	2	+16
Jrue Holiday G	30	19	3	5	5	+16
Donovan Clingan C	30	5	12	2	1	+3
Sidy Cissoko G	29	19	2	0	4	-11
Scoot Henderson G	19	5	2	2	1	-3
Robert Williams III F-C	17	10	7	0	0	+7

Oklahoma City Thunder

	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	3PM	+/-
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G	36	31	4	2	0	-7
Isaiah Hartenstein F-C	34	20	11	6	0	-4
Aday Mara C	32	11	6	2	0	-6
Jared McCain G	31	10	6	3	2	-2
Alex Caruso G	29	14	7	2	4	-11
Kenrich Williams G-F	26	11	2	2	2	-6
Bennett Stirtz G	25	6	1	1	2	-9
Nique Clifford G	16	5	3	1	1	+3

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Portland Trail Blazers

Net 69

Shot quality (TS%) 66

3PT volume & accuracy 65

Ball security & passing 29

Rebounding control 58

Defensive disruption 60

ORtg 116.7 · DRtg 109.9 · Net +6.8 · TS 60.2%

Oklahoma City Thunder

Net 63

Shot quality (TS%) 35

3PT volume & accuracy 35

Ball security & passing 50

Rebounding control 50

Defensive disruption 72

ORtg 109.7 · DRtg 104.9 · Net +4.7 · TS 55.6%

Portland Trail Blazers · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 7.0W expected (10 GP)

Oklahoma City Thunder · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.3W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Portland Trail Blazers

Win rate when leading at HT 3/6 (50%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 3/6 (50%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 59.2 (52.3%) 2H: 53.9 (47.7%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 4-6

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win rate when leading at HT 7/7 (100%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/7 (29%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 56.5 (52.1%) 2H: 52.0 (47.9%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 6-5

Pace & total-points trends

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

POR

OKC

Points scored / game 119.7 110.9

Points allowed / game 112.7 106.1

Average game total 232.4 217.0

Average 1st-half total 119.1 108.0

Possessions / 48 min 102.6 101.1

Games with 220+ pts 8/10 5/10

Games with 230+ pts 4/10 2/10

Games with 240+ pts 4/10 1/10

Scored 115+ pts 7/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Portland Trail Blazers

0 days (Back-to-back)

2 in 4 nights 4 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 3

Oklahoma City Thunder

0 days (Back-to-back)

2 in 4 nights 4 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 2

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Portland Trail Blazers

#1 Deni Avdija F 18.8% pts share

22.5 PPG · 6.4 RPG · 6.5 APG · 1.7 3PM 17.8% FGA
#2 Damian Lillard G 16.7% pts share

20.0 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 4.3 APG · 2.9 3PM 15.9% FGA
#3 Jrue Holiday G 10.7% pts share

12.8 PPG · 3.3 RPG · 3.8 APG · 2.3 3PM 9.8% FGA

Oklahoma City Thunder

#1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 26.4% pts share

29.3 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 4.8 APG · 2.4 3PM 25.2% FGA
#2 Jared McCain G 11.0% pts share

12.2 PPG · 3.5 RPG · 1.8 APG · 1.5 3PM 12.5% FGA
#3 Isaiah Hartenstein F-C 6.5% pts share

7.2 PPG · 10.7 RPG · 3.5 APG · 0.0 3PM 7.2% FGA

Last five games

Portland Trail Blazers

W 123-103 vs Oklahoma City Thunder (H) 11 Nov
L 103-125 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 8 Nov
L 118-124 at Los Angeles Lakers (A) 7 Nov
W 132-119 at Phoenix Suns (A) 5 Nov
W 118-110 at Denver Nuggets (A) 3 Nov

Oklahoma City Thunder

L 103-123 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 11 Nov
W 114-75 vs Washington Wizards (H) 8 Nov
W 128-97 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 7 Nov
W 124-116 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 5 Nov
W 117-112 at Cleveland Cavaliers (A) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

POR · 2W OKC · 8W

Avg total pts: 226.9 POR avg: 107.9 OKC avg: 119.0 225+ pt games: 6/10 POR at home: 2-4

10 Nov 2026 POR 123‑103 OKC
31 Dec 2025 OKC 124‑95 POR
30 Nov 2025 POR 115‑123 OKC
23 Nov 2025 OKC 122‑95 POR
5 Nov 2025 POR 121‑119 OKC
7 Mar 2025 OKC 107‑89 POR
26 Jan 2025 POR 108‑118 OKC
20 Nov 2024 OKC 109‑99 POR
1 Nov 2024 POR 114‑137 OKC
6 Mar 2024 POR 120‑128 OKC

Season profile comparison

POR

OKC

Record 7-3 8-3

At home 2-2 5-0

On the road 5-1 3-3

Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference 6 of 15, Western Conference

Streak – –

Days of rest 0 (second night of a back-to-back) 0 (second night of a back-to-back)

Our team rating #13 of 30 #16 of 30

Pace #8 of 30 #16 of 30

Standings

Full NBA standings

#	Team	W	L	PCT	Home	Road	Streak
7	Portland Trail Blazers	7	3	.700	2-2	5-1	–
6	Oklahoma City Thunder	8	3	.727	5-0	3-3	–

Other NBA results that day

All results

Times are UTC.