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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Sacramento Kings vs Portland Trail Blazers Prediction and Preview

Sacramento Kings 1-10
vs
Portland Trail Blazers 8-3
Golden 1 Center, Sacramento

Our picks

  • Winner Portland Trail Blazers
    Model probability 32% 68%
  • First half Portland Trail Blazers ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • Sacramento Kings points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Portland Trail Blazers points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
SAC 108–114
POR 112–118
Game script Single-digit edge
1st-half scoring Typical 1st-half pace 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Portland Trail Blazers hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Decisive edge
  • Sacramento Kings shorthanded on the official injury report Slight edge
  • Home-court advantage for Sacramento Kings Minor offset
  • Matchup projects above-average points per possession Lifts scoring

Players

PTSREBAST
Zach LaVine Under 22.5 Under 3.5 Under 2.5 G · 32.6 MPG PRA: Under 28.5
Domantas Sabonis Over 13.5 Under 13.5 Under 5.5 F-C · 34.4 MPG PRA: Under 32.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Darius Acuff Jr. Under 26.5 Under 3.5 Under 7.5 G · 37.5 MPG PRA: Under 37.5
Toumani Camara Under 13.5 Over 3.5 Over 1.5 F · 29.0 MPG PRA: Under 18.5 ★ Top lean: PTS
Deni Avdija Under 23.5 Under 6.5 Under 6.5 F · 33.5 MPG PRA: Under 36.5
Damian Lillard Under 19.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 G · 29.7 MPG PRA: Over 27.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

Portland Trail Blazers are our winner pick, and the strongest reason is that they are a clearly stronger side than Sacramento Kings right now, both in results and in the players expected to play. Against that, Sacramento Kings have home court and two days of rest to Portland's one. What keeps the pick is the size of the gap: a 1‑10 team that has lost all six home games and four straight, with Maxime Raynaud and Ben Simmons out and Precious Achiuwa questionable, gives our model much more to go on than fresher legs can answer, and Portland have also won all five recent meetings. The call is moderate.

Total points: Our model puts the total below the league average: these two offenses and defenses generate more points per possession than you would expect, but the pace the teams play at together is slower than normal.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 57 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 60% and 70%, it was right 68% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Sacramento Kings 9 of 11 right (82%)
  • Portland Trail Blazers 9 of 11 right (82%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Golden 1 Center
City
Sacramento
Since last match
Sacramento Kings: Orlando Magic (100‑107) Portland Trail Blazers: Oklahoma City Thunder (118‑108)
Next match
Sacramento Kings: Oklahoma City Thunder Portland Trail Blazers: Minnesota Timberwolves

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Sacramento Kings

Low absence load
Missing offense2.0%
Missing minutes4.5%
4 Out / Doubtful 1 GTD
Key sidelined

Maxime Raynaud, Jonathan Mogbo

Portland Trail Blazers

Low absence load
Missing offense9.0%
Missing minutes9.1%
4 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Ja Morant, Chris Youngblood, Shaedon Sharpe

Official NBA injury report

Sacramento Kings

  • Out Maxime Raynaud C Injury · 16.3 PPG · 31.8 MPG
  • Out Jonathan Mogbo F G League · 3.8 PPG · 15.8 MPG
  • Out Alex Karaban F G League · 1.5 PPG · 11.0 MPG
  • Out Ben Simmons G-F Injury
  • Questionable Precious Achiuwa F Injury · 9.9 PPG · 26.1 MPG

Portland Trail Blazers

  • Out Ja Morant G Injury · 16.3 PPG · 27.0 MPG
  • Out Shaedon Sharpe G Injury · 8.6 PPG · 16.6 MPG
  • Out Chris Youngblood G Injury · 6.0 PPG · 13.5 MPG
  • Out Vít Krejčí G Injury · 3.0 PPG · 9.3 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Sacramento Kings

Projected Starters
  • G Darius Acuff Jr.
    37.5 MPG 27.6 PPG 3.9 RPG 7.7 APG
  • F-C Domantas Sabonis
    34.4 MPG 13.8 PPG 12.8 RPG 5.7 APG
  • G Zach LaVine
    32.6 MPG 21.7 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.4 APG
  • G-F De'Andre Hunter
    32.8 MPG 14.1 PPG 4.7 RPG 1.3 APG
  • F Precious Achiuwa GTD
    26.1 MPG 9.9 PPG 6.5 RPG 1.0 APG
Key Bench
  • F Keegan Murray
    24.3 MPG 11.0 PPG 1.7 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Emanuel Sharp
    18.2 MPG 4.3 PPG 1.5 RPG 0.7 APG
  • F Leaky Black
    19.0 MPG 5.0 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.6 APG

Portland Trail Blazers

Projected Starters
  • F Deni Avdija
    33.5 MPG 23.5 PPG 5.7 RPG 6.7 APG
  • G Damian Lillard
    29.7 MPG 19.3 PPG 3.2 RPG 4.0 APG
  • F Toumani Camara
    29.0 MPG 12.6 PPG 3.6 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Jrue Holiday
    26.7 MPG 13.9 PPG 3.2 RPG 4.2 APG
  • C Donovan Clingan
    25.8 MPG 10.8 PPG 10.8 RPG 1.5 APG
Key Bench
  • G Sidy Cissoko
    22.7 MPG 8.8 PPG 3.5 RPG 1.9 APG
  • G Scoot Henderson
    22.5 MPG 7.7 PPG 2.1 RPG 1.6 APG
  • F-C Robert Williams III
    16.5 MPG 8.2 PPG 6.1 RPG 0.9 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Sacramento Kings

#28 of 30
Net rating -5.6 30d: +1.4
Pace: -0.4 (#6 of 30)

Portland Trail Blazers

#12 of 30
Net rating +1.5 30d: -0.2
Pace: -0.5 (#7 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Sacramento Kings

Net 19
Shot quality (TS%) 44
3PT volume & accuracy 50
Ball security & passing 16
Rebounding control 43
Defensive disruption 31

ORtg 106.1 · DRtg 117.2 · Net -11.1 · TS 57.0%

Portland Trail Blazers

Net 61
Shot quality (TS%) 68
3PT volume & accuracy 66
Ball security & passing 26
Rebounding control 52
Defensive disruption 57

ORtg 116.0 · DRtg 112.2 · Net +3.8 · TS 60.4%

Sacramento Kings · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 1W actual vs 1.9W expected (11 GP)
Portland Trail Blazers · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.8W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Sacramento Kings

Win rate when leading at HT 2/3 (67%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/12 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 56.9 (52.1%) 2H: 52.3 (47.9%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 0-1 10+ pt margins: 1-9

Portland Trail Blazers

Win rate when leading at HT 4/7 (57%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 3/5 (60%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 59.7 (52.1%) 2H: 54.8 (47.9%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 5-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

SACPOR
Points scored / game 109.5 119.1
Points allowed / game 121.0 115.2
Average game total 230.5 234.3
Average 1st-half total 121.7 118.6
Possessions / 48 min 103.2 102.7
Games with 220+ pts 7/10 9/10
Games with 230+ pts 6/10 4/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 4/10
Scored 115+ pts 3/10 7/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Sacramento Kings

2 days rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 5

Portland Trail Blazers

1 day rest
3 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Sacramento Kings

  • #1 Darius Acuff Jr. G 25.2% pts share
    27.6 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 7.7 APG · 3.4 3PM 26.3% FGA
  • #2 Zach LaVine G 19.8% pts share
    21.7 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 2.4 APG · 2.8 3PM 16.4% FGA
  • #3 Domantas Sabonis F-C 12.6% pts share
    13.8 PPG · 12.8 RPG · 5.7 APG · 0.2 3PM 10.0% FGA

Portland Trail Blazers

  • #1 Deni Avdija F 19.7% pts share
    23.5 PPG · 5.7 RPG · 6.7 APG · 1.9 3PM 18.6% FGA
  • #2 Damian Lillard G 16.2% pts share
    19.3 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 4.0 APG · 2.5 3PM 16.3% FGA
  • #3 Jrue Holiday G 11.7% pts share
    13.9 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 4.2 APG · 2.8 3PM 10.7% FGA

Last five games

Sacramento Kings

  • L 100-107 vs Orlando Magic (H) 11 Nov
  • L 108-114 vs Miami Heat (H) 9 Nov
  • L 109-124 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 7 Nov
  • L 103-116 vs Los Angeles Lakers (H) 5 Nov
  • W 115-100 at Dallas Mavericks (A) 3 Nov

Portland Trail Blazers

  • W 118-108 vs Oklahoma City Thunder (H) 12 Nov
  • W 123-103 vs Oklahoma City Thunder (H) 11 Nov
  • L 103-125 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 8 Nov
  • L 118-124 at Los Angeles Lakers (A) 7 Nov
  • W 132-119 at Phoenix Suns (A) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

SAC · 3W POR · 7W
Avg total pts: 224.3 SAC avg: 113.4 POR avg: 110.9 225+ pt games: 5/10 SAC at home: 3-3
  • 23 Oct 2026 SAC 120‑128 POR
  • 12 Apr 2026 POR 122‑110 SAC
  • 18 Jan 2026 SAC 110‑117 POR
  • 20 Dec 2025 SAC 93‑98 POR
  • 18 Dec 2025 POR 134‑133 (OT) SAC
  • 27 Mar 2025 SAC 128‑107 POR
  • 6 Feb 2025 POR 108‑102 SAC
  • 29 Nov 2024 POR 115‑106 SAC
  • 28 Oct 2024 SAC 111‑98 POR
  • 14 Apr 2024 SAC 121‑82 POR

Season profile comparison

SACPOR
Record 1-10 8-3
At home 0-6 3-2
On the road 1-4 5-1
Conference 14 of 15, Western Conference 5 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Lost 4 in a row Won 2 in a row
Days of rest 2 1
Our team rating #28 of 30 #12 of 30
Pace #4 of 30 #6 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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