OptimaGoal
EN
NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

LA Clippers vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction and Preview

LA Clippers 2-8
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder 8-4
Intuit Dome, Inglewood

Our picks

  • Winner LA Clippers
    Model probability 51% 49%
  • First half LA Clippers ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • LA Clippers points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Oklahoma City Thunder points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
LAC 109–115
OKC 108–114
Game script Close / clutch finish
1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Oklahoma City Thunder hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Caution factor
  • Home-court advantage for LA Clippers Slight edge
  • Oklahoma City Thunder shorthanded on the official injury report Slight edge
  • Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Strong under drag

Players

PTSREBAST
Derrick Jones Jr. Under 11.5 Under 4.5 Under 1.5 F · 28.6 MPG PRA: Under 17.5
Darius Garland Under 20.5 Over 1.5 Over 6.5 G · 32.7 MPG PRA: Over 28.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Rui Hachimura Under 14.5 Under 5.5 Under 1.5 F · 31.8 MPG PRA: Under 21.5
Isaiah Hartenstein Under 8.5 Under 10.5 Under 3.5 F-C · 26.0 MPG PRA: Under 22.5
Jared McCain Under 12.5 Under 3.5 Over 1.5 G · 27.4 MPG PRA: Over 17.5
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Under 29.5 Under 4.5 Over 4.5 G · 32.3 MPG PRA: Over 38.5 ★ Top lean: AST

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

$6.99 / month · That is about $0.23 a day

Unlock probabilities

Why this pick?

Our model's winner pick is LA Clippers, with home court, two days of rest and an Oklahoma City Thunder injury report missing Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams all pointing the same way. The strongest argument against is that the Thunder rate above the Clippers on our team ratings, which weigh results and the players expected to play. The pick still holds because those Clippers advantages stack up against a Thunder side on one day's rest and without Holmgren, while the Clippers have won only at home this season. It is a narrow call.

Total points: Our model sees the total below the league average, driven mainly by two teams that play at a slower pace than a typical NBA game. The absences on both injury reports trim the expected scoring a little, and only slightly higher points per possession than usual pull the other way.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 64 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 50% and 60%, it was right 63% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • LA Clippers 7 of 10 right (70%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Intuit Dome
City
Inglewood
Since last match
LA Clippers: Phoenix Suns (133‑110) Oklahoma City Thunder: Portland Trail Blazers (118‑108)
Next match
LA Clippers: Charlotte Hornets Oklahoma City Thunder: Sacramento Kings

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

LA Clippers

Low absence load
Missing offense0.0%
Missing minutes0.0%
4 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Brandon Ingram, Jordan Miller, Bradley Beal

Oklahoma City Thunder

Low absence load
Missing offense3.7%
Missing minutes6.9%
5 Out / Doubtful 1 GTD
Key sidelined

Jaylin Williams, Jalen Williams, Chet Holmgren

Official NBA injury report

LA Clippers

  • Out Brandon Ingram F Injury · 17.7 PPG · 31.5 MPG
  • Out Jordan Miller G Injury · 10.5 PPG · 23.3 MPG
  • Out Bradley Beal G Injury · 8.2 PPG · 20.2 MPG
  • Out Yanic Konan Niederhäuser C Injury · 6.9 PPG · 15.7 MPG

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • Out Jalen Williams G-F Injury · 8.0 PPG · 32.0 MPG
  • Out Chet Holmgren F-C Injury · 10.0 PPG · 31.0 MPG
  • Out Jaylin Williams F Injury · 2.4 PPG · 19.4 MPG
  • Out Cason Wallace G Injury · 4.0 PPG · 6.0 MPG
  • Out Thomas Sorber Injury
  • Questionable Ajay Mitchell G Injury · 20.8 PPG · 28.2 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

LA Clippers

Projected Starters
  • G Darius Garland
    32.7 MPG 20.4 PPG 1.8 RPG 6.9 APG
  • G Kris Dunn
    28.6 MPG 8.5 PPG 4.0 RPG 4.3 APG
  • F Derrick Jones Jr.
    29.2 MPG 11.1 PPG 4.9 RPG 1.4 APG
  • F Rui Hachimura
    29.5 MPG 14.4 PPG 5.9 RPG 1.6 APG
  • G Kobe Sanders
    24.3 MPG 9.8 PPG 2.9 RPG 2.7 APG
Key Bench
  • C Brook Lopez
    23.4 MPG 13.6 PPG 5.2 RPG 1.0 APG
  • G Keaton Wagler
    23.2 MPG 12.2 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.4 APG
  • F Isaiah Jackson
    20.6 MPG 8.1 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.0 APG

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starters
  • G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    32.3 MPG 30.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 4.7 APG
  • G Jared McCain
    27.4 MPG 12.8 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.0 APG
  • G Ajay Mitchell GTD
    28.2 MPG 20.8 PPG 3.9 RPG 3.3 APG
  • F-C Isaiah Hartenstein
    26.0 MPG 8.6 PPG 11.2 RPG 3.9 APG
  • C Aday Mara
    23.1 MPG 9.3 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.6 APG
Key Bench
  • G Bennett Stirtz
    22.0 MPG 9.5 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG
  • G-F Kenrich Williams
    21.5 MPG 7.6 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Alex Caruso
    18.9 MPG 7.4 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.9 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

LA Clippers

#23 of 30
Net rating -3.4 30d: -1.3
Pace: -1.3 (#13 of 30)

Oklahoma City Thunder

#14 of 30
Net rating -0.2 30d: -8.9
Pace: -1.5 (#16 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

LA Clippers

Net 34
Shot quality (TS%) 54
3PT volume & accuracy 63
Ball security & passing 12
Rebounding control 42
Defensive disruption 39

ORtg 108.4 · DRtg 114.1 · Net -5.7 · TS 58.4%

Oklahoma City Thunder

Net 57
Shot quality (TS%) 39
3PT volume & accuracy 37
Ball security & passing 46
Rebounding control 53
Defensive disruption 63

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +2.6 · TS 56.2%

LA Clippers · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 2W actual vs 3.3W expected (10 GP)
Oklahoma City Thunder · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.6W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

LA Clippers

Win rate when leading at HT 4/8 (50%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/6 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 56.3 (50.2%) 2H: 55.8 (49.8%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 3-6

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win rate when leading at HT 7/7 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/7 (29%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.3 (52.0%) 2H: 52.9 (48.0%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 6-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

LACOKC
Points scored / game 112.2 112.1
Points allowed / game 118.1 109.5
Average game total 230.3 221.6
Average 1st-half total 114.3 109.4
Possessions / 48 min 102.4 101.7
Games with 220+ pts 7/10 6/10
Games with 230+ pts 6/10 2/10
Games with 240+ pts 4/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

LA Clippers

2 days rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Oklahoma City Thunder

1 day rest
3 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 3

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

LA Clippers

  • #1 Darius Garland G 18.2% pts share
    20.4 PPG · 1.8 RPG · 6.9 APG · 2.4 3PM 17.9% FGA
  • #2 Keaton Wagler G 10.9% pts share
    12.2 PPG · 3.5 RPG · 3.4 APG · 1.7 3PM 10.0% FGA
  • #3 Rui Hachimura F 12.8% pts share
    14.4 PPG · 5.9 RPG · 1.6 APG · 2.2 3PM 15.6% FGA

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • #1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 27.4% pts share
    30.7 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 4.7 APG · 2.1 3PM 25.5% FGA
  • #2 Ajay Mitchell G GTD 18.6% pts share
    20.8 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 3.3 APG · 1.0 3PM 16.9% FGA
  • #3 Jared McCain G 11.4% pts share
    12.8 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.0 APG · 1.7 3PM 13.5% FGA

Last five games

LA Clippers

  • L 110-133 at Phoenix Suns (A) 11 Nov
  • W 139-123 vs New Orleans Pelicans (H) 9 Nov
  • L 116-117 vs Miami Heat (H) 5 Nov
  • L 118-125 vs Toronto Raptors (H) 3 Nov
  • L 112-124 at Golden State Warriors (A) 2 Nov

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • L 108-118 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 12 Nov
  • L 103-123 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-75 vs Washington Wizards (H) 8 Nov
  • W 128-97 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 7 Nov
  • W 124-116 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

LAC · 1W OKC · 9W
Avg total pts: 226.1 LAC avg: 107.3 OKC avg: 118.8 225+ pt games: 5/10 LAC at home: 1-4
  • 25 Oct 2026 OKC 108‑101 LAC
  • 8 Apr 2026 LAC 110‑128 OKC
  • 18 Dec 2025 OKC 122‑101 LAC
  • 4 Nov 2025 LAC 107‑126 OKC
  • 23 Mar 2025 LAC 101‑103 OKC
  • 2 Jan 2025 OKC 116‑98 LAC
  • 11 Nov 2024 OKC 134‑128 LAC
  • 2 Nov 2024 LAC 92‑105 OKC
  • 22 Feb 2024 OKC 129‑107 LAC
  • 16 Jan 2024 LAC 128‑117 OKC

Season profile comparison

LACOKC
Record 2-8 8-4
At home 2-3 5-0
On the road 0-5 3-4
Conference 13 of 15, Western Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference
Streak – Lost 2 in a row
Days of rest 2 1
Our team rating #23 of 30 #15 of 30
Pace #13 of 30 #16 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

More NBA games

Games

Times are UTC.