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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 33

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Atlético-MG crest Atlético-MG
vs
Cruzeiro crest Cruzeiro
Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais

Our picks

Free picks
  • Result Free pick Atlético-MG win
    Model probability 33% 98% 48%
  • Double chance Free pick Atlético-MG or Cruzeiro (12)
    Model probability 73% 26% 62%
  • More corners Free pick Atlético-MG
    Model probability 57% 65% 82%
  • Yellow cards Free pick Above the league average(league 0.1)
    Model probability Over 3.5 88%Over 4.5 41%Over 5.5 37%
  • Corners Free pick Above the league average(league 10.5)
    Model probability Over 8.5 76%Over 9.5 68%Over 10.5 47%

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Why this pick?

Our model sides with Atlético-MG, with home advantage the main point in their favour. The strongest case against is Cruzeiro's profile: they are slightly stronger on our long-run, xG-based rating, sit above Atlético in the table and have been creating chances clearly above the league average. Atlético have conceded more shots than average recently, so this is no comfortable home call. The pick holds on the overall view: Atlético's home advantage and recent home wins, together with three wins in the last five meetings, edge out Cruzeiro's stronger rating. The call is narrow.

Match summary

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro comes to the Brasileirão Série A on Thursday 29 October 2026 for Matchday 33, and our model goes with an Atlético-MG win, with a win for either side and no draw as the second pick.

Form guide

Atlético-MG

  • L 2-3 at Flamengo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 26 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Montevideo City Torque (A) Copa Sudamericana · 21 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Coritiba (H) Brasileirão Série A · 17 Oct
  • W 3-0 vs Montevideo City Torque (H) Copa Sudamericana · 14 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Santos (H) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct

Cruzeiro

  • W 1-0 vs Remo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 23 Oct
  • W 4-2 at Grêmio (A) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • L 2-4 at RB Bragantino (A) Brasileirão Série A · 13 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs São Paulo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 8 Oct
  • W 3-1 at Vitória (A) Brasileirão Série A · 20 Sep

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Atlético-MGCruzeiro
Attack 53 89 1.4 goals per match this season1.6 goals per match this season
Defence 68 79 1.2 conceded per match this season1.4 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1773Elo #148 Elo rating 1813Elo #117

Head-to-head

21Atlético-MG wins
11draws
13Cruzeiro wins

45 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 2 Sep 2026 · Copa do Brasil Atlético-MG 2-1 Cruzeiro
  • 26 Aug 2026 · Copa do Brasil Cruzeiro 1-1 Atlético-MG
  • 3 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Cruzeiro 1-3 Atlético-MG
  • 8 Mar 2026 · Mineiro Cruzeiro 1-0 Atlético-MG
  • 25 Jan 2026 · Mineiro Atlético-MG 2-1 Cruzeiro

Brasileirão Série A so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
4 Cruzeiro 32 16610 51:46 +5 54
6 Atlético-MG 32 14810 44:38 +6 50

Positions in our table of 20 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 33
Kick-off
Venue
Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais
Since last match
Atlético-MG: 2 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Cruzeiro: 5 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Next match
Atlético-MG: 2 days (Copa do Brasil) later
Cruzeiro: 7 days (Brasileirão Série A) later

Questions and answers

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Atlético-MG to win, and it is a narrow call. The main reason is home advantage. Our double chance pick is Atlético-MG or Cruzeiro (no draw).

What time is Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro and where is it played?

Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro kicks off at 22:30 UK time (22:30 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Arena MRV, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais. Local time: 19:30 (Brasília time). It is a Brasileirão Série A match (Matchday 33).

What is the recent form of Atlético-MG and Cruzeiro?

Atlético-MG have 3 wins, 0 draws and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and have lost their last 2. Cruzeiro have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and have won their last 2.

What is the head-to-head record between Atlético-MG and Cruzeiro?

Atlético-MG and Cruzeiro have met 45 times in our records since 2010: Atlético-MG won 21, Cruzeiro won 13 and 11 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-09-02, Atlético-MG 2-1 Cruzeiro.

Who is the referee for Atlético-MG vs Cruzeiro?

The referee is Raphael Claus. In the last 50 matches we have on record, Raphael Claus has averaged 2.9 yellow cards per match.

More Brasileirão Série A matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.