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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 33

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Vasco da Gama crest Vasco da Gama
vs
Flamengo crest Flamengo
Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro

Our picks

Free picks
  • Result Free pick Flamengo win
    Model probability 83% 97% 88%
  • Double chance Free pick Flamengo or draw (X2)
    Model probability 65% 48% 75%
  • More corners Free pick Flamengo
    Model probability 26% 89% 17%
  • Yellow cards Free pick Above the league average(league 0.1)
    Model probability Over 3.5 44%Over 4.5 36%Over 5.5 20%
  • Corners Free pick Around the league average(league 10.5)
    Model probability Over 8.5 96%Over 9.5 43%Over 10.5 35%

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with Flamengo because it rates them the markedly stronger side, and the season's numbers point the same way: first place, 70 points and only four defeats. The counterweight is the setting and Vasco's recent habit of pushing into the opposition box, though clear chances have been scarce for them. That does not overturn the call, because Vasco's defence is one of the weakest in the division and Flamengo's attack is the competition's most productive. The head-to-head since 2010, with 18 Flamengo wins to Vasco's four, fits the same picture. A moderate call.

Match summary

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo, Matchday 33 of the Brasileirão Série A, is played on Thursday 29 October 2026 at the Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, and our pick is a Flamengo win, with a Flamengo win or draw as the double chance.

Form guide

Vasco da Gama

  • W 3-2 vs Corinthians (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct
  • L 1-3 vs Boca Juniors (H) Copa Sudamericana · 21 Oct
  • L 0-1 at São Paulo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • W 1-0 at Boca Juniors (A) Copa Sudamericana · 14 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Remo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 10 Oct

Flamengo

  • W 3-2 vs Atlético-MG (H) Brasileirão Série A · 26 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Estudiantes (H) Copa Libertadores · 23 Oct
  • W 3-0 at Bahia (A) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • D 0-0 vs Estudiantes (N) Copa Libertadores · 16 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Fluminense (H) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

Vasco da GamaFlamengo
Attack 63 100 1.3 goals per match this season2.0 goals per match this season
Defence 16 100 1.5 conceded per match this season0.8 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1731Elo #197 Elo rating 1947Elo #47

Head-to-head

4Vasco da Gama wins
16draws
18Flamengo wins

38 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Flamengo 2-2 Vasco da Gama
  • 22 Jan 2026 · Carioca Flamengo 1-0 Vasco da Gama
  • 21 Sep 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Flamengo 1-1 Vasco da Gama
  • 19 Apr 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Vasco da Gama 0-0 Flamengo
  • 8 Mar 2025 · Carioca Flamengo 2-1 Vasco da Gama

Brasileirão Série A so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Flamengo 32 2174 64:27 +37 70
13 Vasco da Gama 31 10813 39:45 -6 38

Positions in our table of 20 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 33
Kick-off
Venue
Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro
Since last match
Vasco da Gama: 5 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Flamengo: 3 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Next match
Vasco da Gama: 2 days (Copa do Brasil) later
Flamengo: 5 days (Brasileirão Série A) later

Questions and answers

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Flamengo to win, and it is a call with a fair margin. The main reason is our long-run strength ratings of the two sides. Our double chance pick is Flamengo or draw.

What time is Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo and where is it played?

Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo kicks off at 23:00 UK time (23:00 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Estádio Olímpico Nilton Santos, Rio de Janeiro. Local time: 20:00 (Brasília time). It is a Brasileirão Série A match (Matchday 33).

What is the recent form of Vasco da Gama and Flamengo?

Vasco da Gama have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and won their latest match. Flamengo have 3 wins, 2 draws and 0 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and are unbeaten in 5.

What is the head-to-head record between Vasco da Gama and Flamengo?

Vasco da Gama and Flamengo have met 38 times in our records since 2010: Vasco da Gama won 4, Flamengo won 18 and 16 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-05-03, Flamengo 2-2 Vasco da Gama.

Who is the referee for Vasco da Gama vs Flamengo?

The referee is Bruno Arleu de Araújo. In the last 38 matches we have on record, Bruno Arleu de Araújo has averaged 3.7 yellow cards per match.

More Brasileirão Série A matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.