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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 33

Santos vs Palmeiras Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Santos crest Santos
vs
Palmeiras crest Palmeiras
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo

Our picks

Free picks
  • Result Free pick Palmeiras win
    Model probability 42% 80% 46%
  • Double chance Free pick Santos or Palmeiras (12)
    Model probability 37% 57% 84%
  • More corners Free pick Santos
    Model probability 48% 92% 50%
  • Yellow cards Free pick Above the league average(league 0.1)
    Model probability Over 3.5 88%Over 4.5 60%Over 5.5 20%
  • Corners Free pick Around the league average(league 10.5)
    Model probability Over 8.5 24%Over 9.5 19%Over 10.5 11%

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Why this pick?

Palmeiras are our pick because our model rates them clearly the stronger side, and a table that has them on 69 points to Santos' 46 says much the same. The strongest argument on the other side is the home advantage Santos enjoy at the Urbano Caldeira. What covers it is the difference in what the two teams give up: Palmeiras have conceded only 22 goals this season and over their last five matches have allowed clearly fewer big chances than the league average, while Santos have been letting more through than most. The call is narrow rather than comfortable.

Match summary

Santos vs Palmeiras is the pick of Matchday 33 in the Brasileirão Série A, played at the Estádio Urbano Caldeira on Wednesday 28 October 2026, and our model goes with a Palmeiras win while the double chance leaves the draw out.

Form guide

Santos

  • D 1-1 vs Bahia (H) Brasileirão Série A · 25 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Fluminense (A) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Atlético-MG (A) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Flamengo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 8 Oct
  • W 2-1 at São Paulo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 2 Oct

Palmeiras

  • W 2-0 vs RB Bragantino (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct
  • L 0-1 vs Fluminense (H) Copa Libertadores · 22 Oct
  • W 2-0 at Athletico Paranaense (A) Brasileirão Série A · 17 Oct
  • W 2-1 at Fluminense (A) Copa Libertadores · 15 Oct
  • W 4-1 vs Corinthians (H) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

SantosPalmeiras
Attack 84 95 1.5 goals per match this season1.8 goals per match this season
Defence 21 95 1.5 conceded per match this season0.7 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1757Elo #166 Elo rating 1922Elo #54

Head-to-head

14Santos wins
8draws
20Palmeiras wins

42 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 Sep 2026 · Copa do Brasil Santos 0-0 Palmeiras
  • 27 Aug 2026 · Copa do Brasil Palmeiras 3-0 Santos
  • 2 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Palmeiras 1-1 Santos
  • 14 Jan 2026 · Paulista A1 Palmeiras 1-0 Santos
  • 16 Nov 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Santos 1-0 Palmeiras

Brasileirão Série A so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Palmeiras 32 2093 56:22 +34 69
8 Santos 32 121010 49:47 +2 46

Positions in our table of 20 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 33
Kick-off
Venue
Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo
Since last match
Santos: 3 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Palmeiras: 4 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Next match
Santos: 5 days (Brasileirão Série A) later
Palmeiras: 3 days (Copa do Brasil) later

Questions and answers

Santos vs Palmeiras prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Palmeiras to win, and it is a narrow call. The main reason is our long-run strength ratings of the two sides. Our double chance pick is Santos or Palmeiras (no draw).

What time is Santos vs Palmeiras and where is it played?

Santos vs Palmeiras kicks off at 22:30 UK time (22:30 UTC) on Wednesday 28 October 2026 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Santos, São Paulo. Local time: 19:30 (Brasília time). It is a Brasileirão Série A match (Matchday 33).

What is the recent form of Santos and Palmeiras?

Santos have 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and drew their latest match. Palmeiras have 4 wins, 0 draws and 1 defeat in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and won their latest match.

What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Palmeiras?

Santos and Palmeiras have met 42 times in our records since 2010: Santos won 14, Palmeiras won 20 and 8 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-09-03, Santos 0-0 Palmeiras.

Who is the referee for Santos vs Palmeiras?

The referee is Flávio Rodrigues de Souza. In the last 9 matches we have on record, Flávio Rodrigues de Souza has averaged 0.4 yellow cards per match.

More Brasileirão Série A matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.