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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 33

Bahia vs São Paulo Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Bahia crest Bahia
vs
São Paulo crest São Paulo
Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia

Our picks

Free picks
  • Result Free pick Bahia win
    Model probability 47% 92% 10%
  • Double chance Free pick Bahia or São Paulo (12)
    Model probability 95% 96% 64%
  • More corners Free pick Bahia
    Model probability 44% 45% 20%
  • Yellow cards Free pick Above the league average(league 0.1)
    Model probability Over 3.5 87%Over 4.5 39%Over 5.5 37%
  • Corners Free pick Around the league average(league 10.5)
    Model probability Over 8.5 72%Over 9.5 67%Over 10.5 57%

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Why this pick?

Our model sides with a Bahia win, mainly because they are at home in Salvador while São Paulo make the trip. The strongest argument the other way is the goals picture: over the last five matches Bahia have been below the league average for big chances created, while São Paulo have been above it for shots and big chances. What carries the call is that playing at the Arena Fonte Nova counts for more than those smaller concerns, and our strength rating puts the visitors' attack at 21, the weakest part of their game. The call is narrow.

Match summary

Bahia vs São Paulo is the Matchday 33 fixture in the Brasileirão Série A, at the Arena Fonte Nova on Thursday 29 October 2026. Our model goes with a Bahia win, and the double chance covers either side without a draw.

Form guide

Bahia

  • D 1-1 at Santos (A) Brasileirão Série A · 25 Oct
  • L 0-3 vs Flamengo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Mirassol (H) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Palmeiras (A) Brasileirão Série A · 9 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Athletico Paranaense (A) Brasileirão Série A · 20 Sep

São Paulo

  • D 1-1 at Mirassol (A) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct
  • W 1-0 vs Vasco da Gama (H) Brasileirão Série A · 18 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Vitória (H) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct
  • L 0-2 at Cruzeiro (A) Brasileirão Série A · 8 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Santos (H) Brasileirão Série A · 2 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

BahiaSão Paulo
Attack 58 21 1.4 goals per match this season1.2 goals per match this season
Defence 58 89 1.3 conceded per match this season1.1 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1759Elo #163 Elo rating 1749Elo #171

Head-to-head

8Bahia wins
7draws
14São Paulo wins

29 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 3 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A São Paulo 2-2 Bahia
  • 25 Oct 2025 · Brasileirão Série A São Paulo 2-0 Bahia
  • 31 May 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Bahia 2-1 São Paulo
  • 6 Nov 2024 · Brasileirão Série A Bahia 0-3 São Paulo
  • 30 Jun 2024 · Brasileirão Série A São Paulo 3-1 Bahia

Brasileirão Série A so far

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
7 Bahia 32 13118 45:40 +5 50
9 São Paulo 32 12713 37:36 +1 43

Positions in our table of 20 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 33
Kick-off
Venue
Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia
Since last match
Bahia: 3 days (Brasileirão Série A)
São Paulo: 4 days (Brasileirão Série A)
Next match
Bahia: 8 days (Brasileirão Série A) later
São Paulo: 7 days (Brasileirão Série A) later

Questions and answers

Bahia vs São Paulo prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Bahia to win, and it is a narrow call. The main reason is home advantage. Our double chance pick is Bahia or São Paulo (no draw).

What time is Bahia vs São Paulo and where is it played?

Bahia vs São Paulo kicks off at 00:30 UK time (00:30 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Arena Fonte Nova, Salvador, Bahia. Local time: 21:30 (Brasília time). It is a Brasileirão Série A match (Matchday 33).

What is the recent form of Bahia and São Paulo?

Bahia have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and drew their latest match. São Paulo have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and are unbeaten in 3.

What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and São Paulo?

Bahia and São Paulo have met 29 times in our records since 2010: Bahia won 8, São Paulo won 14 and 7 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-05-03, São Paulo 2-2 Bahia.

Who is the referee for Bahia vs São Paulo?

The referee is Anderson Daronco. In the last 50 matches we have on record, Anderson Daronco has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match.

More Brasileirão Série A matches

All fixtures

Times are UTC.