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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 21

Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina

Our picks

  • Result Vasco da Gama win
    Model probability Chapecoense 25% Draw 26% Vasco da Gama 50%
  • Double chance Vasco da Gama or draw (X2)
    Model probability Chapecoense / Draw 50% Chapecoense / Vasco da Gama 74% Draw / Vasco da Gama 75%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Vasco da Gama
    Model probability Chapecoense Level Vasco da Gama
  • Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.7)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Around the league average(league 10.6)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 1‑2
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 0‑1

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
  • Chapecoense: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Moderate support
  • Recent form gap between the two clubs Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes Vasco da Gama the favourite because its strength rating sits well above Chapecoense's, a newly promoted side the ratings place adrift of the division's average and bottom of the table with 21 points and 68 goals conceded. The closest thing to a counterargument is Vasco's chance creation, clearly below the league average over the last five, and a head-to-head that has produced seven draws in eleven meetings. What outweighs it is the overall picture: a 41-point Vasco against a team beaten four times in five, with the goal model also leaning the visitors' way. The call is moderate, not clear-cut.

Our record

When our result pick had 40%–50%, it came true 53% of the time (278 settled matches).

  • Chapecoense: 2 of 3 right
  • Vasco da Gama: 3 of 4 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 21
Kick-off
Local time
20:30 (Brasília time)
Venue
Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina
Referee
Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima (4.5 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches)
Since last match
Chapecoense: 11 days (Brasileirão Série A) · Mirassol (1‑2) Vasco da Gama: 6 days (Copa do Brasil) · Athletico Paranaense (1‑3)
Next match
Chapecoense: 3 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Remo Vasco da Gama: 4 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Internacional

Predicted line-ups

Chapecoense 4-2-3-1

  1. 98 Anderson
  2. 5 Heitor
  3. 21 Kauan
  4. 4 Paulo
  5. 91 Pacheco
  6. 27 Camilo
  7. 88 Yago
  8. 7 Marcinho
  9. 10 Augusto
  10. 11 Bolasie
  11. 9 Túlio

Coach: Lacerda Last match: vs Mirassol, 1-2 · Série A · 3 Nov

Vasco da Gama 3-5-2

  1. 1 Léo
  2. 55 Pereira
  3. 4 Saldivia
  4. 30 Renan
  5. 2 Rodriguez
  6. 22 Lescano
  7. 5 Sosa
  8. 23 Mendes
  9. 66 Cuiabano
  10. 11 Gómez
  11. 20 Brenner

Coach: Pedro Emanuel Last match: at Athletico Paranaense, 3-1 · Série A · 4 Nov

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Chapecoense

  • DF DomaSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • MF Rafael CarvalheiraInjured · Out for the season
  • FW Maurício GarcezInjured · Mid November 2026
  • FW RobertInjured · Late November 2026

Vasco da Gama

  • DF Carlos CuestaInjured · Mid November 2026
  • MF Cauan BarrosInjured · About 1-2 weeks

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Chapecoense

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 17.0%
Missing minutes share 13.0%
4 players out 2 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • FW Maurício Garcez 14% attack · 6% mins
  • DF Doma 3% attack · 7% mins

Vasco da Gama

Low impact
Missing attack share 0.0%
Missing minutes share 0.0%
2 players out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Chapecoense Vasco da Gama
Box & Territory Pressure 38 50
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 41 40
Finishing Efficiency 60 56
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 29 25
Underlying Play Power 25 58
Chapecoense Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Vasco da Gama Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Chapecoense

When scoring first 40% won · 60% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 33% points rescued · 11% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 50% 2nd Half: 50%
First 15': 19% Last 15' (76-90'): 12%

Vasco da Gama

When scoring first 100% won · 100% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 29% points rescued · 29% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 33% 2nd Half: 67%
First 15': 4% Last 15' (76-90'): 25%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Chapecoense

  1. 1. MF Giovanni Augusto 1G · 3A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 9.0%
  2. 2. FW Marcinho 2G · 1A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Túlio 1G · 1A
    Team attack 11.0% Team shots 14.0%

Vasco da Gama

  1. 1. MF José Rodriguez 2G · 1A
    Team attack 13.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. MF Alan Lescano 2G · 0A
    Team attack 12.0% Team shots 7.0%
  3. 3. FW Facundo Colidio 0G · 2A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 10.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Scoring trends Chapecoense Vasco da Gama
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 6/10
Over 2.5 goals 8/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Both teams scored 7/10 6/10
Clean sheet 0/10 2/10
Failed to score 3/10 3/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 0.9 / 2.2 1.3 / 1.4

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Chapecoense

  • L 1-2 vs Mirassol (H) Brasileirão Série A · 3 Nov
  • L 0-3 at RB Bragantino (A) Brasileirão Série A · 28 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Fluminense (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Botafogo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 17 Oct
  • L 1-4 vs Athletico Paranaense (H) Brasileirão Série A · 12 Oct

Vasco da Gama

  • W 2-1 vs Palmeiras (H) Copa do Brasil · 8 Nov
  • W 3-1 at Athletico Paranaense (A) Brasileirão Série A · 4 Nov
  • L 0-1 at Palmeiras (A) Copa do Brasil · 1 Nov
  • L 1-4 vs Flamengo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 29 Oct
  • W 3-2 vs Corinthians (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Chapecoense

  • 1-15 minutes: 3 scored, 7 conceded
  • 16-30 minutes: 6 scored, 13 conceded
  • 31-45 minutes: 5 scored, 13 conceded
  • 46-60 minutes: 4 scored, 14 conceded
  • 61-75 minutes: 5 scored, 10 conceded
  • 76-90 minutes: 10 scored, 11 conceded

Vasco da Gama

  • 1-15 minutes: 2 scored, 5 conceded
  • 16-30 minutes: 4 scored, 6 conceded
  • 31-45 minutes: 6 scored, 8 conceded
  • 46-60 minutes: 8 scored, 11 conceded
  • 61-75 minutes: 9 scored, 9 conceded
  • 76-90 minutes: 14 scored, 11 conceded

Goals in each 15-minute period, Brasileirão Série A this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Chapecoense

Player G A
Marcinho 5 2
Túlio 3 1
Walter Clar (2 pens) 3 1
Maurício Garcez 3 0
Giovanni Augusto 2 7

Vasco da Gama

Player G A
Andrés Gómez 5 2
Thiago Mendes 5 1
David 4 2
José Rodriguez (1 pen) 3 5
Facundo Colidio 3 2

Goals and assists in the Brasileirão Série A this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Chapecoense Vasco da Gama
  • 4.0 Corners won 5.7
  • 6.1 Corners conceded 4.0
  • 2.3 Yellow cards 1.9
  • 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 1.9

Per match in the Brasileirão Série A this season. Average per club and match: 5.3 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.

Referee: Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima, 4.5 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

ChapecoenseVasco da Gama
Attack 5 58 1.0 goals per match this season1.3 goals per match this season
Defence 0 11 2.1 conceded per match this season1.5 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1580Elo #339 Elo rating 1735Elo #192

Head-to-head

2Chapecoense wins
7draws
2Vasco da Gama wins

11 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 5 Feb 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Vasco da Gama 1-1 Chapecoense
  • 31 Jul 2022 · Série B Vasco da Gama 0-0 Chapecoense
  • 23 Apr 2022 · Série B Chapecoense 0-0 Vasco da Gama
  • 8 Dec 2019 · Brasileirão Série A Vasco da Gama 1-1 Chapecoense
  • 14 Sep 2019 · Brasileirão Série A Chapecoense 1-2 Vasco da Gama

Table

Brasileirão Série A: Table
#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Flamengo 34 2374 71:29 +42 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21103 62:23 +39 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18610 55:48 +7 60
4 Fluminense 34 1699 55:42 +13 57
5 Athletico Paranaense 34 15910 51:43 +8 54
6 Bahia 34 14119 50:45 +5 53
7 Atlético-MG 34 14812 44:40 +4 50
8 RB Bragantino 34 13813 44:39 +5 47
9 Santos 34 121111 50:49 +1 47
10 São Paulo 34 12814 39:39 0 44
11 Botafogo 34 11914 46:53 -7 42
12 Coritiba 34 11914 40:51 -11 42
13 Vasco da Gama 33 11814 43:50 -7 41
14 Mirassol 34 101014 39:48 -9 40
15 Internacional 34 91114 38:42 -4 38
16 Vitória 34 10816 35:51 -16 38
17 Corinthians 34 91015 36:42 -6 37
18 Grêmio 34 91015 38:47 -9 37
19 Remo 34 61117 37:57 -20 29
20 Chapecoense 33 4920 33:68 -35 21

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Brasileirão Série A: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely TitleLibertadoresRelegated
Chapecoense 21
Vasco da Gama 41

For members

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