Chapecoense vs Vasco da Gama Prediction, Match Preview & Stats
Our picks
- Result
Vasco da Gama win Model probability
Chapecoense 25% Draw 26%
Vasco da Gama 50% - Double chance
Vasco da Gama or draw (X2) Model probability
Chapecoense / Draw 50% 
Chapecoense / Vasco da Gama 74%
Draw / Vasco da Gama 75% - Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5Model probability
- More corners
Vasco da Gama Model probability
Chapecoense Level
Vasco da Gama - Yellow cards Around the league average(league 4.7)Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
- Corners Around the league average(league 10.6)Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5
Most Likely Scorelines
Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)
- #1
1‑2
- #2
1‑1
- #3
0‑1
Key Model Drivers
Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick
- Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Strong support
-
Chapecoense: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Moderate support - Recent form gap between the two clubs Low support
See exactly how confident our model is
Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.
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All probabilities
Result after 90 minutes
Double chance
1X · Chapecoense or draw50%
12 · Chapecoense or Vasco da Gama74%
X2 · Vasco da Gama or draw75%
Both teams to score
Yes
No
Goals over/under 2.5
Over 2.5
Under 2.5
Yellow cards
Expected
Over 3.5 / under ·
Over 4.5 / under ·
Over 5.5 / under ·
Corners
Expected
Chapecoense –
Vasco da Gama
Over 8.5 / under ·
Over 9.5 / under ·
Over 10.5 / under ·
More corners
Chapecoense
Level
Vasco da Gama
Why this pick?
Our model makes Vasco da Gama the favourite because its strength rating sits well above Chapecoense's, a newly promoted side the ratings place adrift of the division's average and bottom of the table with 21 points and 68 goals conceded. The closest thing to a counterargument is Vasco's chance creation, clearly below the league average over the last five, and a head-to-head that has produced seven draws in eleven meetings. What outweighs it is the overall picture: a 41-point Vasco against a team beaten four times in five, with the goal model also leaning the visitors' way. The call is moderate, not clear-cut.
Our record
When our result pick had 40%–50%, it came true 53% of the time (278 settled matches).
Chapecoense: 2 of 3 right
Vasco da Gama: 3 of 4 right
Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.
Match facts
- Competition
- Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 21
- Kick-off
- Local time
- 20:30 (Brasília time)
- Venue
- Arena Condá, Chapecó, Santa Catarina
- Referee
- Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima (4.5 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches)
- Since last match
Chapecoense: 11 days (Brasileirão Série A) · Mirassol (1‑2)
Vasco da Gama: 6 days (Copa do Brasil) · Athletico Paranaense (1‑3)- Next match
Chapecoense: 3 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Remo
Vasco da Gama: 4 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Internacional
Predicted line-ups
Chapecoense 4-2-3-1
- 98 Anderson
- 5 Heitor
- 21 Kauan
- 4 Paulo
- 91 Pacheco
- 27 Camilo
- 88 Yago
- 7 Marcinho
- 10 Augusto
- 11 Bolasie
- 9 Túlio
Vasco da Gama 3-5-2
- 1 Léo
- 55 Pereira
- 4 Saldivia
- 30 Renan
- 2 Rodriguez
- 22 Lescano
- 5 Sosa
- 23 Mendes
- 66 Cuiabano
- 11 Gómez
- 20 Brenner
Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.
Injuries and suspensions
Chapecoense
- DF DomaSuspended · Mid November 2026
- MF Rafael CarvalheiraInjured · Out for the season
- FW Maurício GarcezInjured · Mid November 2026
- FW RobertInjured · Late November 2026
Vasco da Gama
- DF Carlos CuestaInjured · Mid November 2026
- MF Cauan BarrosInjured · About 1-2 weeks
Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.
Missing Players Impact
Chapecoense
Moderate impact - FW Maurício Garcez 14% attack · 6% mins
- DF Doma 3% attack · 7% mins
Vasco da Gama
Low impact Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.
Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)
OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.
Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing
Chapecoense
Vasco da Gama
Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.
Key Attacking Threats
Chapecoense
- 1. MF Giovanni Augusto 1G · 3ATeam attack 15.0% Team shots 9.0%
- 2. FW Marcinho 2G · 1ATeam attack 14.0% Team shots 10.0%
- 3. FW Túlio 1G · 1ATeam attack 11.0% Team shots 14.0%
Vasco da Gama
- 1. MF José Rodriguez 2G · 1ATeam attack 13.0% Team shots 14.0%
- 2. MF Alan Lescano 2G · 0ATeam attack 12.0% Team shots 7.0%
- 3. FW Facundo Colidio 0G · 2ATeam attack 10.0% Team shots 10.0%
Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.
Scoring trends
| Scoring trends | ||
|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 goals | 9/10 | 6/10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 8/10 | 6/10 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 3/10 | 4/10 |
| Both teams scored | 7/10 | 6/10 |
| Clean sheet | 0/10 | 2/10 |
| Failed to score | 3/10 | 3/10 |
| Goals per match (scored / conceded) | 0.9 / 2.2 | 1.3 / 1.4 |
Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.
Form guide
Chapecoense
- L 1-2 vs
Mirassol (H) Brasileirão Série A · 3 Nov - L 0-3 at
RB Bragantino (A) Brasileirão Série A · 28 Oct - W 2-1 vs
Fluminense (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct - L 0-1 at
Botafogo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 17 Oct - L 1-4 vs
Athletico Paranaense (H) Brasileirão Série A · 12 Oct
Vasco da Gama
- W 2-1 vs
Palmeiras (H) Copa do Brasil · 8 Nov - W 3-1 at
Athletico Paranaense (A) Brasileirão Série A · 4 Nov - L 0-1 at
Palmeiras (A) Copa do Brasil · 1 Nov - L 1-4 vs
Flamengo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 29 Oct - W 3-2 vs
Corinthians (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct
Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.
When the goals come
Chapecoense
- 1-15 minutes: 3 scored, 7 conceded
- 16-30 minutes: 6 scored, 13 conceded
- 31-45 minutes: 5 scored, 13 conceded
- 46-60 minutes: 4 scored, 14 conceded
- 61-75 minutes: 5 scored, 10 conceded
- 76-90 minutes: 10 scored, 11 conceded
Vasco da Gama
- 1-15 minutes: 2 scored, 5 conceded
- 16-30 minutes: 4 scored, 6 conceded
- 31-45 minutes: 6 scored, 8 conceded
- 46-60 minutes: 8 scored, 11 conceded
- 61-75 minutes: 9 scored, 9 conceded
- 76-90 minutes: 14 scored, 11 conceded
Goals in each 15-minute period, Brasileirão Série A this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.
Top scorers
Chapecoense
| Player | G | A |
|---|---|---|
| Marcinho | 5 | 2 |
| Túlio | 3 | 1 |
| Walter Clar (2 pens) | 3 | 1 |
| Maurício Garcez | 3 | 0 |
| Giovanni Augusto | 2 | 7 |
Vasco da Gama
| Player | G | A |
|---|---|---|
| Andrés Gómez | 5 | 2 |
| Thiago Mendes | 5 | 1 |
| David | 4 | 2 |
| José Rodriguez (1 pen) | 3 | 5 |
| Facundo Colidio | 3 | 2 |
Goals and assists in the Brasileirão Série A this season.
Corners and yellow cards
- 4.0 Corners won 5.7
- 6.1 Corners conceded 4.0
- 2.3 Yellow cards 1.9
- 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 1.9
Per match in the Brasileirão Série A this season. Average per club and match: 5.3 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.
Referee: Rodrigo José Pereira de Lima, 4.5 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches.
Attack and defence ratings
0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.
Head-to-head
11 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.
- 5 Feb 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Vasco da Gama
1-1
Chapecoense - 31 Jul 2022 · Série B Vasco da Gama
0-0
Chapecoense - 23 Apr 2022 · Série B Chapecoense
0-0
Vasco da Gama - 8 Dec 2019 · Brasileirão Série A Vasco da Gama
1-1
Chapecoense - 14 Sep 2019 · Brasileirão Série A Chapecoense
1-2
Vasco da Gama
Table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | Goals | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | 71:29 | +42 | 76 |
| 2 | | 34 | 21 | 10 | 3 | 62:23 | +39 | 73 |
| 3 | | 34 | 18 | 6 | 10 | 55:48 | +7 | 60 |
| 4 | | 34 | 16 | 9 | 9 | 55:42 | +13 | 57 |
| 5 | | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | 51:43 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 | | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | 50:45 | +5 | 53 |
| 7 | | 34 | 14 | 8 | 12 | 44:40 | +4 | 50 |
| 8 | | 34 | 13 | 8 | 13 | 44:39 | +5 | 47 |
| 9 | | 34 | 12 | 11 | 11 | 50:49 | +1 | 47 |
| 10 | | 34 | 12 | 8 | 14 | 39:39 | 0 | 44 |
| 11 | | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 46:53 | -7 | 42 |
| 12 | | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 40:51 | -11 | 42 |
| 13 | | 33 | 11 | 8 | 14 | 43:50 | -7 | 41 |
| 14 | | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | 39:48 | -9 | 40 |
| 15 | | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | 38:42 | -4 | 38 |
| 16 | | 34 | 10 | 8 | 16 | 35:51 | -16 | 38 |
| 17 | | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 36:42 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 | | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 38:47 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 | | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 37:57 | -20 | 29 |
| 20 | | 33 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 33:68 | -35 | 21 |
Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table
Season projection
MembersWhere these two clubs are projected to finish in the Brasileirão Série A: average points, likely range and chances.
| Club | Pts | Avg pts | Likely | Title | Libertadores | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21 | ||||||
| 41 |
For members
Every club's chance of every place, from our simulated seasons, updated daily.
Become a memberMore Brasileirão Série A matches
All fixtures-
Mirassol
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Remo
Chapecoense Our pick -
Flamengo
Athletico Paranaense Our pick -
Cruzeiro
Palmeiras Our pick -
Corinthians
Botafogo Our pick
Times are UTC.