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Brasileirão Série A · Matchday 35

Mirassol vs Atlético-MG Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Mirassol crest Mirassol
vs
Atlético-MG crest Atlético-MG
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, São Paulo

Our picks

  • Result Mirassol win
    Model probability 49% 26% 25%
  • Double chance Mirassol or draw (1X)
    Model probability 75% 74% 51%
  • Goals over/under 2.5 Over 2.5
    Model probability
  • More corners Mirassol
    Model probability
  • Yellow cards Below the league average(league 4.7)
    Model probability Over 3.5 Over 4.5 Over 5.5
  • Corners Around the league average(league 10.6)
    Model probability Over 8.5 Over 9.5 Over 10.5

Most Likely Scorelines

Top 3 full-time scorelines ranked by our model (1st to 3rd)

  1. #1 2‑1
  2. #2 1‑1
  3. #3 1‑0

Key Model Drivers

Primary factors shaping our 1X2 pick

  • Mirassol: Home advantage in this competition Moderate support
  • Overall club strength gap (Elo & long-run ratings) Low support
  • Atlético-MG: Recent shot, box and corner dominance Low support

See exactly how confident our model is

Both teams to score, over/under 2.5 goals, cards and corners: these probabilities are for members until the match is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model goes with Mirassol mainly because they are at home, and that advantage carries real weight here. Against it sit our goal model's reading of the matchup and Atlético-MG's unbeaten record in the three meetings since 2010. The visitors are only slightly stronger on our strength rating and sit slightly below the league average, and their recent form is worse: four defeats in five, big chances created below average, shots conceded clearly above it. Mirassol also give up chances, but they get into the opposition box more than most, and Atlético have scored once at most in each of those five games. The call is a moderate one.

What this match changes

  • Mirassol Relegation

    Now13% Win2%Draw17%Defeat28%

Each club's chance before the match and after a win, a draw or a defeat, from our 10,000 simulated seasons (updated daily).

Our record

When our result pick had 40%–50%, it came true 53% of the time (278 settled matches).

  • Mirassol: 2 of 3 right
  • Atlético-MG: 2 of 4 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Brasileirão Série A, Matchday 35
Kick-off
Local time
18:30 (Brasília time)
Venue
Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia, Mirassol, São Paulo
Referee
Sávio Pereira Sampaio (4.7 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches)
Since last match
Mirassol: 10 days (Brasileirão Série A) · Chapecoense (1‑2) Atlético-MG: 7 days (Copa do Brasil) · Botafogo (1‑0)
Next match
Mirassol: 8 days (Brasileirão Série A) later · Fluminense Atlético-MG: 7 days (Copa Sudamericana) later · Boca Juniors

Predicted line-ups

Mirassol 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 Walter
  2. 32 Formiga
  3. 34 Victor
  4. 2 Oliveira
  5. 6 Reinaldo
  6. 27 Denilson
  7. 25 Neto
  8. 7 Shaylon
  9. 33 Eduardo
  10. 77 Alesson
  11. 9 Luís

Coach: Rafael Guanaes Last match: at Chapecoense, 2-1 · Série A · 3 Nov

Atlético-MG 4-2-3-1

  1. 22 Everson
  2. 2 Natanael
  3. 13 Lyanco
  4. 3 Duarte
  5. 6 Lodi
  6. 15 Castaño
  7. 39 Cissé
  8. 10 Scarpa
  9. 5 Alexsander
  10. 92 Dudu
  11. 29 Soares

Coach: Eduardo Domínguez Last match: at Botafogo, 0-1 · Série A · 5 Nov

Our model's guess: the XIs of each club's recent matches, those of the same competition counting most, without the injured and suspended. On past matches it named 8.4 of the 11 starters on average. The official line-ups come about an hour before kick-off.

Injuries and suspensions

Mirassol

  • FW Bruno SantosSuspended · Late November 2026
  • FW NeguebaInjured · Out for the season

Atlético-MG

  • MF Tomás PérezSuspended · Mid November 2026
  • MF Alan FrancoInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • MF Victor HugoInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • FW Alan MindaInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • FW ReinierInjured · Out for the season
  • FW Thiago BorbasInjured · Mid November 2026
  • DF Kauã PasciniInternational duty · Mid November 2026
  • DF VitãoInternational duty · Mid November 2026
  • DF Ángelo PreciadoInternational duty · Mid November 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Mirassol

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 10.0%
Missing minutes share 5.0%
2 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • FW Bruno Santos 10% attack · 5% mins

Atlético-MG

High impact
Missing attack share 42.0%
Missing minutes share 32.0%
9 players out 4 regular starters out
Key absences:
  • MF Victor Hugo 11% attack · 5% mins
  • FW Reinier 8% attack · 4% mins

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Mirassol Atlético-MG
Box & Territory Pressure 47 52
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 57 54
Finishing Efficiency 21 39
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 68 43
Underlying Play Power 49 37
Mirassol Balanced (results match underlying play)
Atlético-MG Results above play quality (running hot)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Mirassol

When scoring first 33% won · 100% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 50% points rescued · 25% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 38% 2nd Half: 62%
First 15': 12% Last 15' (76-90'): 25%

Atlético-MG

When scoring first 86% won · 86% unbeaten (7 matches)
When conceding first 38% points rescued · 12% won (8 matches)
1st Half: 43% 2nd Half: 57%
First 15': 10% Last 15' (76-90'): 33%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Mirassol

  1. 1. DF Reinaldo 1G · 0A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 15.0%
  2. 2. DF Igor Formiga 0G · 3A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 9.0%
  3. 3. FW Alesson 0G · 1A
    Team attack 10.0% Team shots 13.0%

Atlético-MG

  1. 1. MF Bernard 3G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 7.0%
  2. 2. FW Igor Gomes 1G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 6.0%
  3. 3. DF Renan Lodi 1G · 1A
    Team attack 6.0% Team shots 5.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Mirassol Atlético-MG
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 7/10
Over 2.5 goals 3/10 4/10
Over 3.5 goals 1/10 2/10
Both teams scored 5/10 4/10
Clean sheet 2/10 2/10
Failed to score 3/10 4/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.2 / 1.1 1.1 / 1.3

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Mirassol

  • W 2-1 at Chapecoense (A) Brasileirão Série A · 3 Nov
  • L 0-2 at Corinthians (A) Brasileirão Série A · 30 Oct
  • D 1-1 vs São Paulo (H) Brasileirão Série A · 24 Oct
  • W 2-0 vs Internacional (H) Brasileirão Série A · 16 Oct
  • L 0-1 at Bahia (A) Brasileirão Série A · 11 Oct

Atlético-MG

  • D 1-1 vs Grêmio (H) Copa do Brasil · 7 Nov
  • L 0-1 at Botafogo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 5 Nov
  • L 0-2 at Grêmio (A) Copa do Brasil · 1 Nov
  • L 0-1 vs Cruzeiro (H) Brasileirão Série A · 29 Oct
  • L 2-3 at Flamengo (A) Brasileirão Série A · 26 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Mirassol

Atlético-MG

Goals in each 15-minute period, Brasileirão Série A this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Mirassol

Player G A
Eduardo 7 0
Igor Formiga 4 5
Edson Carioca 3 1
André Luís 3 0
Bruno Santos 3 0

Atlético-MG

Player G A
Bernard 5 3
Tomás Cuello 5 2
Reinier 4 2
Victor Hugo 4 2
Mateo Cassierra 3 2

Goals and assists in the Brasileirão Série A this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Mirassol Atlético-MG
  • 5.2 Corners won 5.2
  • 5.1 Corners conceded 5.7
  • 2.4 Yellow cards 1.7
  • 2.1 Opponents' yellow cards 2.2

Per match in the Brasileirão Série A this season. Average per club and match: 5.3 corners, 2.4 yellow cards.

Referee: Sávio Pereira Sampaio, 4.7 yellow cards per match over the last 50 matches.

Attack and defence ratings

MirassolAtlético-MG
Attack 47 53 1.1 goals per match this season1.3 goals per match this season
Defence 74 63 1.4 conceded per match this season1.2 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Brasileirão Série A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1751Elo #171 Elo rating 1756Elo #166

Head-to-head

0Mirassol wins
1draw
2Atlético-MG wins

3 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 16 May 2026 · Brasileirão Série A Atlético-MG 3-1 Mirassol
  • 28 Sep 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Atlético-MG 1-0 Mirassol
  • 26 Apr 2025 · Brasileirão Série A Mirassol 2-2 Atlético-MG

Table

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Flamengo 34 2374 71:29 +42 76
2 Palmeiras 34 21103 62:23 +39 73
3 Cruzeiro 34 18610 55:48 +7 60
4 Fluminense 34 1699 55:42 +13 57
5 Athletico Paranaense 34 15910 51:43 +8 54
6 Bahia 34 14119 50:45 +5 53
7 Atlético-MG 34 14812 44:40 +4 50
8 RB Bragantino 34 13813 44:39 +5 47
9 Santos 34 121111 50:49 +1 47
10 São Paulo 34 12814 39:39 0 44
11 Botafogo 34 11914 46:53 -7 42
12 Coritiba 34 11914 40:51 -11 42
13 Vasco da Gama 33 11814 43:50 -7 41
14 Mirassol 34 101014 39:48 -9 40
15 Internacional 34 91114 38:42 -4 38
16 Vitória 34 10816 35:51 -16 38
17 Corinthians 34 91015 36:42 -6 37
18 Grêmio 34 91015 38:47 -9 37
19 Remo 34 61117 37:57 -20 29
20 Chapecoense 33 4920 33:68 -35 21

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Brasileirão Série A: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely TitleLibertadoresRelegated
Mirassol 40
Atlético-MG 50

For members

Every club's chance of every place, from our simulated seasons, updated daily.

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Times are UTC.