Bundesliga · Matchday 10

Augsburg vs Mainz 05: Match Preview & Stats

Augsburg

Mainz 05

Sunday 22 November 2026, 14:30 UTC WWK Arena, Augsburg

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on Friday 20 November 2026, 14:30 UTC. (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

Augsburg: 3 of 5 right
Mainz 05: 3 of 5 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition: Bundesliga, Matchday 10
Kick-off: Sunday 22 November 2026, 14:30 UTC
Venue: WWK Arena, Augsburg
Since last match: Augsburg: 15 days (Bundesliga) · RB Leipzig (5‑2) Mainz 05: 15 days (Bundesliga) · Bayern München (1‑2)
Next match: Augsburg: 7 days (Bundesliga) later Mainz 05: 6 days (Bundesliga) later

Last starting XI

Augsburg 3-4-2-1

1 Dahmen
14 Keitel
6 Gouweleeuw
5 Matsima
19 Fellhauer
4 Massengo
32 Rieder
16 Behrens
30 Kade
21 Ibrahimović
9 Ribeiro

Coach: Manuel Baum at RB Leipzig, 2-5 · Bundesliga · 7 Nov

Mainz 05 3-5-2

27 Zentner
21 da Costa
3 Gruber
48 Potulski
19 Caci
10 Amiri
6 Sano
7 Lee
30 Widmer
11 Königsdörffer
23 Becker

Coach: Urs Fischer vs Bayern München, 1-2 · Bundesliga · 7 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Augsburg

DF Calvin BrackelmannInjured · Doubtful
DF Chrislain MatsimaInjured · A few weeks
DF Noahkai BanksInjured · Mid November 2026
MF Arijon IbrahimovićInjured · Late November 2026
MF Sima SusoInjured · Mid November 2026
FW Steve MouniéInjured · Mid November 2026
– Faik SakarInjured · Mid November 2026

Mainz 05

DF Dominik KohrInjured · Early January 2027
MF Otto RuoppiInjured · Late November 2026
FW Silas Katompa MvumpaInjured · Early January 2027

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Augsburg

High impact

Missing attack share 16.0%

Missing minutes share 23.0%

7 players out 4 regular starters out

Key absences:

MF Arijon Ibrahimović 10% attack · 5% mins
DF Chrislain Matsima 2% attack · 8% mins

Mainz 05

Low impact

Missing attack share 1.0%

Missing minutes share 1.0%

3 players out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 9 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Augsburg Mainz 05

Box & Territory Pressure 61 67

Set-Piece & Corner Threat 52 79

Finishing Efficiency 85 51

Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 48 16

Underlying Play Power 32 60

Augsburg Results above play quality (running hot)

Mainz 05 Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 9 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Augsburg

When scoring first 30% won · 70% unbeaten (10 matches)

When conceding first 60% points rescued · 40% won (5 matches)

1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%

First 15': 16% Last 15' (76-90'): 23%

Mainz 05

When scoring first 80% won · 80% unbeaten (5 matches)

When conceding first 22% points rescued · 11% won (9 matches)

1st Half: 56% 2nd Half: 44%

First 15': 11% Last 15' (76-90'): 33%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Augsburg

1. FW Michael Gregoritsch 5G · 0A

Team attack 14.0% Team shots 15.0%
2. MF Fabian Rieder 2G · 5A

Team attack 13.0% Team shots 9.0%
3. MF Anton Kade 2G · 1A

Team attack 11.0% Team shots 13.0%

Mainz 05

1. FW Phillip Tietz 6G · 0A

Team attack 17.0% Team shots 21.0%
2. FW Sheraldo Becker 2G · 4A

Team attack 17.0% Team shots 15.0%
3. MF Anthony Caci 3G · 3A

Team attack 13.0% Team shots 6.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Scoring trends

Scoring trends	Augsburg	Mainz 05
Over 1.5 goals	10/10	8/10
Over 2.5 goals	9/10	7/10
Over 3.5 goals	7/10	6/10
Both teams scored	9/10	6/10
Clean sheet	1/10	3/10
Failed to score	0/10	2/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded)	2.4 / 2.2	1.8 / 2.1

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Augsburg

L 2-5 at RB Leipzig (A) Bundesliga · 7 Nov
L 1-2 vs Freiburg (H) Bundesliga · 31 Oct
W 4-2 at Sonnenhof Großaspach (A) DFB Pokal · 27 Oct
D 1-1 vs Union Berlin (H) Bundesliga · 24 Oct
L 3-4 at Elversberg (A) Bundesliga · 17 Oct

Mainz 05

L 1-2 vs Bayern München (H) Bundesliga · 7 Nov
L 1-4 at Elversberg (A) Bundesliga · 30 Oct
L 0-2 at Bochum (A) DFB Pokal · 27 Oct
L 2-3 vs Werder Bremen (H) Bundesliga · 24 Oct
W 1-0 at Schalke 04 (A) Bundesliga · 17 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Augsburg

1-15 minutes: 2 scored, 3 conceded
16-30 minutes: 3 scored, 2 conceded
31-45 minutes: 1 scored, 3 conceded
46-60 minutes: 5 scored, 2 conceded
61-75 minutes: 3 scored, 4 conceded
76-90 minutes: 6 scored, 6 conceded

Mainz 05

1-15 minutes: 0 scored, 7 conceded
16-30 minutes: 3 scored, 2 conceded
31-45 minutes: 5 scored, 2 conceded
46-60 minutes: 1 scored, 4 conceded
61-75 minutes: 1 scored, 2 conceded
76-90 minutes: 8 scored, 2 conceded

Goals in each 15-minute period, Bundesliga this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Augsburg

Player	G	A
Michael Gregoritsch (1 pen)	5	0
Robin Fellhauer	3	0
Fabian Rieder (1 pen)	2	5
Anton Kade	2	1
Rodrigo Ribeiro	2	0

Mainz 05

Player	G	A
Phillip Tietz	6	0
Anthony Caci	3	3
Sheraldo Becker	2	4
Benedict Hollerbach	2	1
Jae-Sung Lee	1	1

Goals and assists in the Bundesliga this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Augsburg Mainz 05

4.9 Corners won 5.9
5.1 Corners conceded 4.8
1.4 Yellow cards 2.2
1.7 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7

Per match in the Bundesliga this season. Average per club and match: 5.2 corners, 1.8 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

AugsburgMainz 05

Attack 47 53 2.2 goals per match this season2.0 goals per match this season

Defence 41 65 2.2 conceded per match this season2.1 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Bundesliga clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1834Elo #101 Elo rating 1846Elo #91

Head-to-head

12Augsburg wins

4draws

15Mainz 05 wins

31 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

7 Feb 2026 · Bundesliga Mainz 05 2-0 Augsburg
20 Sep 2025 · Bundesliga Augsburg 1-4 Mainz 05
8 Feb 2025 · Bundesliga Mainz 05 0-0 Augsburg
20 Sep 2024 · Bundesliga Augsburg 2-3 Mainz 05
17 Feb 2024 · Bundesliga Mainz 05 1-0 Augsburg

Table

Bundesliga: Table
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
1	Bayern München	9	6	3	0	29:9	+20	21
2	Borussia Dortmund	9	6	3	0	16:7	+9	21
3	Freiburg	9	6	1	2	20:10	+10	19
4	RB Leipzig	9	6	0	3	27:13	+14	18
5	Bayer Leverkusen	9	5	1	3	20:17	+3	16
6	Werder Bremen	9	4	3	2	17:15	+2	15
7	Elversberg	9	4	1	4	17:18	-1	13
8	VfB Stuttgart	9	4	0	5	15:15	0	12
9	Hoffenheim	9	4	0	5	16:17	-1	12
10	Eintracht Frankfurt	9	3	3	3	15:20	-5	12
11	Hamburger SV	9	4	0	5	10:20	-10	12
12	Mainz 05	9	3	1	5	18:19	-1	10
13	Paderborn	9	2	4	3	8:11	-3	10
14	Augsburg	9	2	3	4	20:20	0	9
15	1. FC Köln	9	2	3	4	10:14	-4	9
16	Union Berlin	9	1	4	4	7:21	-14	7
17	Schalke 04	9	1	3	5	5:11	-6	6
18	Borussia Mönchengladbach	9	1	1	7	12:25	-13	4

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Bundesliga: average points, likely range and chances.

Club	Pts	Avg pts	Likely	Title	Top 4	Rel. play-off	Relegated
Augsburg	9
Mainz 05	10

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Times are UTC.