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Liga MX · Matchday 17

Pachuca vs Toluca: Match Preview & Stats

Pachuca crest Pachuca
vs
Toluca crest Toluca
Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

  • Pachuca: 2 of 4 right
  • Toluca: 1 of 4 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Liga MX, Matchday 17
Kick-off
Local time
16:50 (Mexico City time)
Venue
Estadio Hidalgo, Pachuca de Soto
Since last match
Pachuca: 13 days (Liga MX) · Atlas (1‑4) Toluca: 13 days (Liga MX) · Monterrey (4‑0)
Next match
Pachuca: not scheduled yet Toluca: not scheduled yet

Last starting XI

Pachuca 4-2-3-1

  1. 25 Moreno
  2. 13 Berlanga
  3. 4 Bauermann
  4. 2 Barreto
  5. 15 Venegas
  6. 16 Rivera
  7. 26 Bautista
  8. 21 Vallejo
  9. 7 Pizarro
  10. 11 Idrissi
  11. 23 Rondon

Coach: Benjamín Mora at Atlas, 4-1 · Liga MX · 7 Nov

Toluca 4-4-2

  1. 1 González
  2. 17 García
  3. 13 Luan
  4. 25 López
  5. 20 Gallardo
  6. 11 Helinho
  7. 5 Romero
  8. 35 Gutiérrez
  9. 8 Castro
  10. 26 Paulinho
  11. 9 Vega

Coach: Antonio Mohamed vs Monterrey, 4-0 · Liga MX · 8 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Pachuca

  • DF Carlos SánchezInjured · Early January 2027
  • FW Alexéi DomínguezInjured · Doubtful

Toluca

  • MF Marcel RuizInjured · Early November 2026 (date passed)
  • FW Iván LópezInjured · Return unknown

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Pachuca

Low impact
Missing attack share 2.0%
Missing minutes share 3.0%
2 players out

Toluca

Low impact
Missing attack share 0.0%
Missing minutes share 0.0%
2 players out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Pachuca Toluca
Box & Territory Pressure 53 56
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 49 50
Finishing Efficiency 87 87
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 71 27
Underlying Play Power 41 67
Pachuca Results above play quality (running hot)
Toluca Balanced (results match underlying play)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Pachuca

When scoring first 83% won · 83% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 44% points rescued · 0% won (9 matches)
1st Half: 42% 2nd Half: 58%
First 15': 19% Last 15' (76-90'): 27%

Toluca

When scoring first 60% won · 80% unbeaten (10 matches)
When conceding first 75% points rescued · 0% won (4 matches)
1st Half: 45% 2nd Half: 55%
First 15': 9% Last 15' (76-90'): 15%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Pachuca

  1. 1. FW José Salomon Rondon 10G · 2A
    Team attack 25.0% Team shots 29.0%
  2. 2. FW Oussama Idrissi 3G · 3A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 11.0%
  3. 3. FW Nicolás Vallejo 0G · 2A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 10.0%

Toluca

  1. 1. FW Federico Viñas 6G · 1A
    Team attack 15.0% Team shots 14.0%
  2. 2. FW Alexis Vega 4G · 2A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. FW Paulinho 5G · 0A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 15.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Pachuca Toluca
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 9/10
Over 2.5 goals 8/10 7/10
Over 3.5 goals 3/10 7/10
Both teams scored 6/10 8/10
Clean sheet 3/10 2/10
Failed to score 1/10 0/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 2.1 / 1.2 2.3 / 1.7

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Pachuca

  • W 4-1 at Atlas (A) Liga MX · 7 Nov
  • W 3-0 vs Tigres (H) Liga MX · 31 Oct
  • W 2-1 at CF América (A) Liga MX · 26 Oct
  • L 1-2 vs Cruz Azul (H) Liga MX · 22 Oct
  • L 1-2 at Monterrey (A) Liga MX · 19 Oct

Toluca

  • W 4-0 vs Monterrey (H) Liga MX · 8 Nov
  • D 2-2 at CF América (A) Liga MX · 1 Nov
  • D 1-1 at León (A) Liga MX · 24 Oct
  • D 2-2 vs Tijuana (H) Liga MX · 22 Oct
  • D 1-1 vs Atlético de San Luis (H) Liga MX · 18 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Pachuca

Toluca

Goals in each 15-minute period, Liga MX this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Pachuca

Player G A
José Salomon Rondon (3 pens) 16 2
Oussama Idrissi 3 5
Kenedy 2 1
Alán Bautista 2 0
Eduardo Bauermann 2 0

Toluca

Player G A
Federico Viñas (1 pen) 8 1
Alexis Vega (2 pens) 5 2
Paulinho 5 0
Helinho (1 pen) 4 7
Jesús Gallardo 2 1

Goals and assists in the Liga MX this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Pachuca Toluca
  • 4.9 Corners won 6.5
  • 4.8 Corners conceded 5.3
  • 2.8 Yellow cards 1.5
  • 2.3 Opponents' yellow cards 2.3

Per match in the Liga MX this season. Average per club and match: 5.5 corners, 1.9 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

PachucaToluca
Attack 71 100 1.8 goals per match this season2.2 goals per match this season
Defence 71 88 1.3 conceded per match this season1.3 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Liga MX clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1797Elo #130 Elo rating 1891Elo #62

Head-to-head

13Pachuca wins
9draws
13Toluca wins

35 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 10 May 2026 · Liga MX Pachuca 2-0 Toluca
  • 4 May 2026 · Liga MX Toluca 0-1 Pachuca
  • 22 Mar 2026 · Liga MX Pachuca 1-1 Toluca
  • 27 Oct 2025 · Liga MX Toluca 2-2 Pachuca
  • 29 Mar 2025 · Liga MX Toluca 3-2 Pachuca

Table

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Cruz Azul 16 1024 37:26 +11 32
2 CF América 16 862 38:23 +15 30
3 Chivas 16 862 26:15 +11 30
4 Toluca 16 763 35:21 +14 27
5 Atlas 16 835 27:30 -3 27
6 Santos Laguna 16 817 23:20 +3 25
7 León 16 655 23:21 +2 23
8 Pachuca 16 646 29:20 +9 22
9 Tijuana 16 574 25:22 +3 22
10 Monterrey 15 636 26:25 +1 21
11 Pumas 16 565 24:26 -2 21
12 Querétaro FC 15 627 18:23 -5 20
13 Puebla 16 547 19:23 -4 19
14 Atlético de San Luis 16 547 19:24 -5 19
15 Tigres 16 367 17:25 -8 15
16 Atlante 16 358 16:26 -10 14
17 Necaxa 16 349 17:28 -11 13
18 FC Juárez 16 3211 13:34 -21 11

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Liga MX: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely 1stLiguilla
Pachuca 22
Toluca 27

For members

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Times are UTC.