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Ligue 1 · Matchday 11

Lens vs Toulouse: Match Preview & Stats

Lens crest Lens
vs
Toulouse crest Toulouse
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens

Our picks

Model predictions are published 48 hours before kick-off

To take in the latest form and rest days, the predictions for this match come out on . (If either team plays another match in between, they come out once that match is over.)

See today's ready predictions →

Our record

  • Lens: 4 of 8 right
  • Toulouse: 3 of 5 right

Our result picks in each club's earlier matches on this site.

Match facts

Competition
Ligue 1, Matchday 11
Kick-off
Venue
Stade Bollaert-Delelis, Lens
Since last match
Lens: 13 days (Ligue 1) · Marseille (1‑2) Toulouse: 15 days (Ligue 1) · Strasbourg (3‑1)
Next match
Lens: 3 days (Champions League) later · RB Leipzig Toulouse: 7 days (Ligue 1) later

Last starting XI

Lens 3-4-2-1

  1. 23 Risser
  2. 24 Gradit
  3. 6 Baidoo
  4. 20 Todibo
  5. 23 Abdulhamid
  6. 8 Titraoui
  7. 21 Haidara
  8. 14 Udol
  9. 10 Thauvin
  10. 7 Sotoca
  11. 9 Hazard

Coach: Yannick Cahuzac vs Marseille, 1-2 · Ligue 1 · 8 Nov

Toulouse 4-4-2

  1. 1 Restes
  2. 94 Diallo
  3. 3 McKenzie
  4. 2 Nicolaisen
  5. 12 Tapé
  6. 8 Jørgensen
  7. 14 Sigur
  8. 23 Cásseres
  9. 11 Oppong
  10. 9 Hidalgo
  11. 20 Tengstedt

Coach: Jens Berthel Askou vs Strasbourg, 3-1 · Ligue 1 · 6 Nov

Our predicted line-ups come with our picks, 48 hours before kick-off. Until then: each club's last starting XI.

Injuries and suspensions

Lens

  • DF Ismaëlo GaniouInjured · Late November 2026
  • DF Maik NawrockiInjured · Mid May 2027
  • MF Abdallah SimaInjured · Late November 2026
  • MF Jhoanner ChavezInjured · Late November 2026
  • FW Franjo IvanovićInjured · About 1-2 weeks
  • FW Odsonne ÉdouardInjured · Early January 2027

Toulouse

  • MF Rafik MessaliInjured · Early December 2026

Players listed as injured, suspended or away with their national team, with their expected return.

Missing Players Impact

Lens

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 14.0%
Missing minutes share 10.0%
6 players out 1 regular starter out
Key absences:
  • FW Franjo Ivanović 6% attack · 3% mins
  • FW Odsonne Édouard 6% attack · 3% mins

Toulouse

Moderate impact
Missing attack share 2.0%
Missing minutes share 4.0%
1 player out 1 regular starter out

Share of team playing time and attacking output over the last 10 matches accounted for by unavailable players.

Tactical Profile & Play Quality (0–100)

Lens Toulouse
Box & Territory Pressure 46 53
Set-Piece & Corner Threat 48 45
Finishing Efficiency 50 56
Defensive & Goalkeeper Wall 18 52
Underlying Play Power 32 67
Lens Playing above results (positive regression candidate)
Toulouse Playing above results (positive regression candidate)

OptimaGoal 0–100 performance indices built from the last 10 matches before kick-off.

Game-State Scenarios & Goal Timing

Lens

When scoring first 80% won · 80% unbeaten (5 matches)
When conceding first 30% points rescued · 20% won (10 matches)
1st Half: 40% 2nd Half: 60%
First 15': 8% Last 15' (76-90'): 20%

Toulouse

When scoring first 67% won · 83% unbeaten (6 matches)
When conceding first 57% points rescued · 14% won (7 matches)
1st Half: 26% 2nd Half: 74%
First 15': 17% Last 15' (76-90'): 26%

Reaction to scoring or conceding first and goal distribution across the last 15 matches.

Key Attacking Threats

Lens

  1. 1. MF Florian Thauvin 2G · 7A
    Team attack 27.0% Team shots 17.0%
  2. 2. MF Matthieu Udol 2G · 0A
    Team attack 9.0% Team shots 10.0%
  3. 3. MF Ruben Aguilar 2G · 1A
    Team attack 8.0% Team shots 6.0%

Toulouse

  1. 1. FW Casper Tengstedt 5G · 1A
    Team attack 19.0% Team shots 22.0%
  2. 2. MF Cristian Cásseres 0G · 6A
    Team attack 16.0% Team shots 9.0%
  3. 3. MF Thomas Jørgensen 3G · 1A
    Team attack 14.0% Team shots 14.0%

Top available players by share of team attacking production and shot volume over the last 10 matches.

Lens Toulouse
Over 1.5 goals 9/10 8/10
Over 2.5 goals 8/10 6/10
Over 3.5 goals 3/10 5/10
Both teams scored 7/10 5/10
Clean sheet 0/10 2/10
Failed to score 3/10 4/10
Goals per match (scored / conceded) 1.2 / 2.4 1.5 / 1.4

Last 10 matches, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Form guide

Lens

  • L 1-2 vs Marseille (H) Ligue 1 · 8 Nov
  • L 1-9 vs Como (H) Champions League · 4 Nov
  • L 0-1 at Lille (A) Ligue 1 · 30 Oct
  • W 2-1 vs Paris FC (H) Ligue 1 · 24 Oct
  • L 0-3 at Club Brugge (A) Champions League · 21 Oct

Toulouse

  • W 3-1 vs Strasbourg (H) Ligue 1 · 6 Nov
  • L 0-2 at Marseille (A) Ligue 1 · 1 Nov
  • D 0-0 vs Troyes (H) Ligue 1 · 25 Oct
  • W 3-0 at Le Mans (A) Ligue 1 · 16 Oct
  • D 2-2 at Monaco (A) Ligue 1 · 10 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

When the goals come

ScoredConceded

Lens

Toulouse

Goals in each 15-minute period, Ligue 1 this season. Stoppage time counts with its half.

Top scorers

Lens

Player G A
Florian Thauvin (3 pens) 5 7
Franjo Ivanović 2 0
Matthieu Udol 2 0
Abdallah Sima 1 1
Florian Sotoca 1 1

Toulouse

Player G A
Casper Tengstedt (2 pens) 5 1
Thomas Jørgensen 3 1
Jacen Russell-Rowe 2 0
Aron Dønnum 1 1
Sion Oppong 1 1

Goals and assists in the Ligue 1 this season.

Corners and yellow cards

Lens Toulouse
  • 5.8 Corners won 4.3
  • 4.2 Corners conceded 3.8
  • 1.6 Yellow cards 2.1
  • 1.5 Opponents' yellow cards 1.7

Per match in the Ligue 1 this season. Average per club and match: 4.5 corners, 1.7 yellow cards.

Attack and defence ratings

LensToulouse
Attack 71 47 1.7 goals per match this season1.5 goals per match this season
Defence 59 65 1.5 conceded per match this season1.4 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Ligue 1 clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1941Elo #49 Elo rating 1855Elo #82

Head-to-head

9Lens wins
2draws
2Toulouse wins

13 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

  • 21 Apr 2026 · Coupe de France Lens 4-1 Toulouse
  • 17 Apr 2026 · Ligue 1 Lens 3-2 Toulouse
  • 2 Jan 2026 · Ligue 1 Toulouse 0-3 Lens
  • 10 May 2025 · Ligue 1 Toulouse 1-1 Lens
  • 5 Jan 2025 · Ligue 1 Lens 0-1 Toulouse

Table

#Team PWDLGoalsGDPts
1 Paris Saint-Germain 10 721 22:10 +12 23
2 Lille 10 631 14:7 +7 21
3 Paris FC 10 622 17:10 +7 20
4 Marseille 10 604 22:14 +8 18
5 Lyon 10 523 15:9 +6 17
6 Nice 10 523 15:12 +3 17
7 Monaco 10 442 13:11 +2 16
8 Rennes 10 514 21:21 0 16
9 Brest 10 433 18:12 +6 15
10 Lorient 10 433 9:8 +1 15
11 Lens 10 415 17:15 +2 13
12 Toulouse 10 343 15:14 +1 13
13 Strasbourg 10 316 18:22 -4 10
14 Auxerre 10 316 13:24 -11 10
15 Le Mans 10 154 12:19 -7 8
16 Angers 10 226 9:19 -10 8
17 Troyes 10 226 7:17 -10 8
18 Le Havre 10 028 9:22 -13 2

Our table from the results; the two clubs of this match are highlighted. Full table

Season projection

Members

Where these two clubs are projected to finish in the Ligue 1: average points, likely range and chances.

ClubPts Avg ptsLikely TitleTop 4Rel. play-offRelegated
Lens 13
Toulouse 13

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