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NBA · Regular season

Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets: Preview and Stats

Miami Heat 5-6
vs
Houston Rockets 9-3
Kaseya Center, Miami

Our picks

Our picks for Miami Heat vs Houston Rockets come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Miami Heat 6 of 11 right (55%)
  • Houston Rockets 8 of 12 right (67%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Kaseya Center
City
Miami
Since last match
Miami Heat: Detroit Pistons Houston Rockets: Washington Wizards
Next match
Miami Heat: Milwaukee Bucks Houston Rockets: Indiana Pacers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Miami Heat

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Miami Heat

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Houston Rockets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Miami Heat

Projected Starters
  • G Davion Mitchell
    36.0 MPG 17.0 PPG 2.2 RPG 8.2 APG
  • F-C Bam Adebayo
    33.4 MPG 18.1 PPG 8.5 RPG 3.2 APG
  • F Giannis Antetokounmpo
    33.0 MPG 27.0 PPG 13.3 RPG 5.6 APG
  • G Pelle Larsson
    30.1 MPG 12.3 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.5 APG
  • G-F Klay Thompson
    25.6 MPG 14.8 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.1 APG
Key Bench
  • F Andrew Wiggins
    25.6 MPG 8.5 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.5 APG
  • F Bobby Portis Jr.
    19.9 MPG 6.8 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Tim Hardaway Jr.
    14.3 MPG 4.8 PPG 1.0 RPG 0.6 APG

Houston Rockets

Projected Starters
  • F Jabari Smith Jr.
    35.3 MPG 16.4 PPG 6.9 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Kevin Durant
    33.8 MPG 20.1 PPG 6.0 RPG 3.5 APG
  • C Alperen Sengun
    35.5 MPG 19.9 PPG 9.6 RPG 8.4 APG
  • G-F Amen Thompson
    32.7 MPG 14.7 PPG 6.1 RPG 2.9 APG
  • G Fred VanVleet
    29.9 MPG 14.6 PPG 3.1 RPG 5.0 APG
Key Bench
  • F Tari Eason
    25.5 MPG 9.8 PPG 6.2 RPG 1.5 APG
  • G Reed Sheppard
    19.9 MPG 11.0 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.4 APG
  • G Marcus Smart
    20.6 MPG 8.6 PPG 2.6 RPG 2.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Miami Heat

#15 of 30
Net rating -0.6 30d: -0.1
Pace: 2.3 (#1 of 30)

Houston Rockets

#2 of 30
Net rating +7.2 30d: +0.9
Pace: -2.6 (#25 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Miami Heat

Net 44
Shot quality (TS%) 44
3PT volume & accuracy 50
Ball security & passing 50
Rebounding control 48
Defensive disruption 33

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 112.4 · Net -2.1 · TS 56.9%

Houston Rockets

Net 74
Shot quality (TS%) 55
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 37
Rebounding control 56
Defensive disruption 67

ORtg 114.9 · DRtg 106.4 · Net +8.5 · TS 58.5%

Miami Heat · Record vs point differential Outperforming point differential (close-game luck) 5W actual vs 4.1W expected (11 GP)
Houston Rockets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 9W actual vs 9.0W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Miami Heat

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/7 (14%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 60.9 (50.9%) 2H: 58.8 (49.1%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-3 10+ pt margins: 4-5

Houston Rockets

Win rate when leading at HT 10/11 (91%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/2 (50%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (49.6%) 2H: 56.3 (50.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-2 10+ pt margins: 7-2

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

MIAHOU
Points scored / game 116.7 114.3
Points allowed / game 118.9 105.8
Average game total 235.6 220.1
Average 1st-half total 122.2 105.2
Possessions / 48 min 104.7 99.4
Games with 220+ pts 10/10 6/10
Games with 230+ pts 5/10 3/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 0/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 5/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Miami Heat

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Houston Rockets

0 days (Back-to-back)
1 in 4 nights 2 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Miami Heat

  • #1 Giannis Antetokounmpo F 23.1% pts share
    27.0 PPG · 13.3 RPG · 5.6 APG · 0.6 3PM 21.1% FGA
  • #2 Davion Mitchell G 14.6% pts share
    17.0 PPG · 2.2 RPG · 8.2 APG · 2.4 3PM 14.2% FGA
  • #3 Bam Adebayo F-C 15.5% pts share
    18.1 PPG · 8.5 RPG · 3.2 APG · 0.5 3PM 14.1% FGA

Houston Rockets

  • #1 Alperen Sengun C 17.4% pts share
    19.9 PPG · 9.6 RPG · 8.4 APG · 0.8 3PM 17.3% FGA
  • #2 Kevin Durant F 17.6% pts share
    20.1 PPG · 6.0 RPG · 3.5 APG · 1.2 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Fred VanVleet G 12.8% pts share
    14.6 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 5.0 APG · 3.0 3PM 12.7% FGA

Last five games

Miami Heat

  • W 115-109 at Utah Jazz (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-108 at Sacramento Kings (A) 9 Nov
  • L 100-120 at Golden State Warriors (A) 6 Nov
  • W 117-116 at LA Clippers (A) 5 Nov
  • L 117-138 at Los Angeles Lakers (A) 3 Nov

Houston Rockets

  • W 115-108 vs Golden State Warriors (H) 12 Nov
  • W 110-100 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 10 Nov
  • L 99-102 at Phoenix Suns (A) 8 Nov
  • L 107-117 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 5 Nov
  • W 109-93 vs Boston Celtics (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

MIA · 8W HOU · 2W
Avg total pts: 219.5 MIA avg: 112.9 HOU avg: 106.6 225+ pt games: 4/10 MIA at home: 4-1
  • 21 Mar 2026 HOU 123‑122 MIA
  • 28 Feb 2026 MIA 115‑105 HOU
  • 21 Mar 2025 MIA 98‑102 HOU
  • 29 Dec 2024 HOU 100‑104 MIA
  • 5 Apr 2024 HOU 104‑119 MIA
  • 8 Jan 2024 MIA 120‑113 HOU
  • 10 Feb 2023 MIA 97‑95 HOU
  • 15 Dec 2022 HOU 108‑111 MIA
  • 7 Mar 2022 MIA 123‑106 HOU
  • 31 Dec 2021 HOU 110‑120 MIA

Season profile comparison

MIAHOU
Record 5-6 9-3
At home 1-3 6-1
On the road 4-3 3-2
Conference 7 of 15, Eastern Conference 3 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Won 2 in a row Won 2 in a row
Days of rest 1 0 (second night of a back-to-back)
Our team rating #15 of 30 #2 of 30
Pace #2 of 30 #26 of 30

Inter-conference matchup — both conference tables shown with Play-off (#6) and Play-in (#10) cut lines.

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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