NBA · Regular season

Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks: Preview and Stats

Thursday 19 November 2026, 00:00 UTC Kaseya Center, Miami

Our picks

Our picks for Miami Heat vs Milwaukee Bucks come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest Wednesday 18 November 2026, 21:00 UTC (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

Miami Heat 6 of 11 right (55%)
Milwaukee Bucks 10 of 12 right (83%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage: NBA, Regular season
Tip-off: Thursday 19 November 2026, 00:00 UTC
Arena: Kaseya Center
City: Miami
Since last match: Miami Heat: Houston Rockets Milwaukee Bucks: Atlanta Hawks
Next match: Miami Heat: Oklahoma City Thunder Milwaukee Bucks: Portland Trail Blazers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Miami Heat

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Miami Heat

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Milwaukee Bucks

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Miami Heat

Projected Starters

G Davion Mitchell

36.0 MPG 17.0 PPG 2.2 RPG 8.2 APG
F-C Bam Adebayo

33.4 MPG 18.1 PPG 8.5 RPG 3.2 APG
F Giannis Antetokounmpo

33.0 MPG 27.0 PPG 13.3 RPG 5.6 APG
G Pelle Larsson

30.1 MPG 12.3 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.5 APG
G-F Klay Thompson

25.6 MPG 14.8 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.1 APG

Key Bench

F Andrew Wiggins

25.6 MPG 8.5 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.5 APG
F Bobby Portis Jr.

19.9 MPG 6.8 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.8 APG
G Tim Hardaway Jr.

14.3 MPG 4.8 PPG 1.0 RPG 0.6 APG

Milwaukee Bucks

Projected Starters

G Tyler Herro

30.9 MPG 20.3 PPG 4.6 RPG 4.1 APG
F Kyle Kuzma

26.7 MPG 11.1 PPG 4.9 RPG 2.4 APG
G Jaime Jaquez Jr.

26.6 MPG 15.2 PPG 5.0 RPG 2.6 APG
F-C Myles Turner

26.2 MPG 5.7 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.9 APG
G Brayden Burries

23.5 MPG 10.1 PPG 5.7 RPG 2.3 APG

Key Bench

G Ryan Rollins

22.3 MPG 10.9 PPG 4.2 RPG 4.0 APG
G Cormac Ryan

26.2 MPG 15.2 PPG 0.0 RPG 0.0 APG
G AJ Green

18.5 MPG 6.1 PPG 1.9 RPG 1.5 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Miami Heat

#15 of 30

Net rating -0.6 30d: -0.1

Pace: 2.3 (#1 of 30)

Milwaukee Bucks

#30 of 30

Net rating -8.1 30d: -2.7

Pace: -2.1 (#22 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Miami Heat

Net 44

Shot quality (TS%) 44

3PT volume & accuracy 50

Ball security & passing 50

Rebounding control 48

Defensive disruption 33

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 112.4 · Net -2.1 · TS 56.9%

Milwaukee Bucks

Net 12

Shot quality (TS%) 21

3PT volume & accuracy 50

Ball security & passing 19

Rebounding control 38

Defensive disruption 45

ORtg 103.4 · DRtg 118.9 · Net -15.5 · TS 53.6%

Miami Heat · Record vs point differential Outperforming point differential (close-game luck) 5W actual vs 4.1W expected (11 GP)

Milwaukee Bucks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 1W actual vs 1.7W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Miami Heat

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/7 (14%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 60.9 (50.9%) 2H: 58.8 (49.1%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-3 10+ pt margins: 4-5

Milwaukee Bucks

Win rate when leading at HT 1/5 (20%)

Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/10 (10%)

Scoring split (1H vs 2H)

1H: 51.4 (47.5%) 2H: 56.8 (52.5%)

Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 0-0 10+ pt margins: 1-11

Pace & total-points trends

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

MIA

MIL

Points scored / game 116.7 104.0

Points allowed / game 118.9 119.6

Average game total 235.6 223.6

Average 1st-half total 122.2 106.0

Possessions / 48 min 104.7 100.6

Games with 220+ pts 10/10 5/10

Games with 230+ pts 5/10 4/10

Games with 240+ pts 3/10 2/10

Scored 115+ pts 5/10 1/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Miami Heat

1 day rest

1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Milwaukee Bucks

2 days rest

1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Miami Heat

#1 Giannis Antetokounmpo F 23.1% pts share

27.0 PPG · 13.3 RPG · 5.6 APG · 0.6 3PM 21.1% FGA
#2 Davion Mitchell G 14.6% pts share

17.0 PPG · 2.2 RPG · 8.2 APG · 2.4 3PM 14.2% FGA
#3 Bam Adebayo F-C 15.5% pts share

18.1 PPG · 8.5 RPG · 3.2 APG · 0.5 3PM 14.1% FGA

Milwaukee Bucks

#1 Tyler Herro G 19.5% pts share

20.3 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 4.1 APG · 2.7 3PM 17.4% FGA
#2 Jaime Jaquez Jr. G 14.6% pts share

15.2 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 2.6 APG · 1.8 3PM 13.8% FGA
#3 Ryan Rollins G 10.5% pts share

10.9 PPG · 4.2 RPG · 4.0 APG · 1.8 3PM 11.3% FGA

Last five games

Miami Heat

W 115-109 at Utah Jazz (A) 11 Nov
W 114-108 at Sacramento Kings (A) 9 Nov
L 100-120 at Golden State Warriors (A) 6 Nov
W 117-116 at LA Clippers (A) 5 Nov
L 117-138 at Los Angeles Lakers (A) 3 Nov

Milwaukee Bucks

L 112-123 vs Los Angeles Lakers (H) 12 Nov
L 85-117 at New York Knicks (A) 11 Nov
L 97-117 vs Boston Celtics (H) 9 Nov
L 107-121 vs Toronto Raptors (H) 7 Nov
L 102-109 at Boston Celtics (A) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

MIA · 3W MIL · 7W

Avg total pts: 228.1 MIA avg: 112.3 MIL avg: 115.8 225+ pt games: 5/10 MIA at home: 2-3

12 Mar 2026 MIA 112‑105 MIL
24 Feb 2026 MIL 128‑117 MIA
26 Nov 2025 MIA 106‑103 MIL
5 Apr 2025 MIA 115‑121 (OT) MIL
23 Feb 2025 MIL 120‑113 MIA
23 Jan 2025 MIL 125‑96 MIA
26 Nov 2024 MIA 103‑106 MIL
13 Feb 2024 MIL 97‑123 MIA
28 Nov 2023 MIA 124‑131 MIL
30 Oct 2023 MIL 122‑114 MIA

Season profile comparison

MIA

MIL

Record 5-6 1-11

At home 1-3 1-6

On the road 4-3 0-5

Conference 7 of 15, Eastern Conference 15 of 15, Eastern Conference

Streak Won 2 in a row Lost 5 in a row

Days of rest 1 2

Our team rating #15 of 30 #30 of 30

Pace #2 of 30 #21 of 30

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings

#	Team	W	L	PCT	GB	Home	Road	L10	Streak
1	Boston Celtics	10	2	.833	–	5-0	5-2	9-1	W5
2	Philadelphia 76ers	10	3	.769	0.5	5-2	5-1	7-3	W1
3	Detroit Pistons	8	3	.727	1.5	3-2	5-1	7-3	W2
4	Atlanta Hawks	7	5	.583	3.0	3-3	4-2	5-5	L1
5	New York Knicks	6	5	.545	3.5	4-3	2-2	6-4	L1
6	Cleveland Cavaliers	6	6	.500	4.0	4-2	2-4	5-5	W1
7	Miami Heat	5	6	.455	4.5	1-3	4-3	5-5	W2
8	Toronto Raptors	5	7	.417	5.0	2-3	3-4	3-7	L3
9	Orlando Magic	4	7	.364	5.5	0-4	4-3	4-6	W2
10	Charlotte Hornets	4	8	.333	6.0	3-4	1-4	3-7	L1
11	Indiana Pacers	4	8	.333	6.0	1-4	3-4	3-7	W1
12	Washington Wizards	4	9	.308	6.5	2-3	2-6	2-8	L6
13	Brooklyn Nets	3	8	.273	6.5	1-3	2-5	3-7	W1
14	Chicago Bulls	1	9	.100	8.0	0-4	1-5	1-9	L8
15	Milwaukee Bucks	1	11	.083	9.0	1-6	0-5	1-9	L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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