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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Indiana Pacers vs New York Knicks Prediction and Preview

Indiana Pacers 4-8
vs
New York Knicks 6-5
Gainbridge Fieldhouse, Indianapolis

Our picks

  • Winner New York Knicks
    Model probability 38% 62%
  • First half New York Knicks ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Below the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • Indiana Pacers points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • New York Knicks points Below the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
IND 100–106
NYK 104–110
Game script Close / clutch finish
1st-half scoring Measured 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • New York Knicks hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Decisive edge
  • Home-court advantage for Indiana Pacers Minor offset
  • New York Knicks shorthanded on the official injury report Minor offset
  • Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Strong under drag

Players

PTSREBAST
Kelly Oubre Jr. Under 9.5 Over 2.5 Under 1.5 G-F · 23.6 MPG PRA: Over 13.5
Pascal Siakam Under 22.5 Under 6.5 Under 4.5 F · 31.9 MPG PRA: Under 33.5 ★ Top lean: AST
Andrew Nembhard Under 17.5 Under 2.5 Under 7.5 G-F · 33.3 MPG PRA: Under 27.5
Karl-Anthony Towns Under 20.5 Under 13.5 Over 3.5 F-C · 32.1 MPG PRA: Under 37.5
Jalen Brunson Under 26.5 Under 3.5 Under 5.5 G · 33.3 MPG PRA: Under 35.5
OG Anunoby Under 16.5 Under 5.5 Under 2.5 G-F · 32.9 MPG PRA: Under 24.5 ★ Top lean: AST

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model picks the New York Knicks, mostly because it rates them the stronger of the two, sixth of 30 against Indiana's 19th, and because the Pacers are short on the injury report: Tyrese Haliburton is out, Johnny Furphy and Ben Sheppard are out too, and Aaron Nesmith is questionable. The clearest argument the other way is Indiana's home court, and a small allowance is kept for absences. It still holds: New York have won four of their last five and took three of the last five meetings, while Indiana are 1‑4 at home. The call is moderately clear.

Total points: The total sits below the league average for our model: the Knicks play at the slowest pace of the 30 teams and the two sides together project a slower game than usual, while the absences on the injury report, Haliburton above all, cut into expected scoring.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 57 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 60% and 70%, it was right 68% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Indiana Pacers 7 of 12 right (58%)
  • New York Knicks 8 of 11 right (73%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 20 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Gainbridge Fieldhouse
City
Indianapolis
Since last match
Indiana Pacers: Washington Wizards (114‑101) New York Knicks: Cleveland Cavaliers (107‑115)
Next match
Indiana Pacers: Philadelphia 76ers New York Knicks: Toronto Raptors

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Indiana Pacers

Low absence load
Missing offense4.9%
Missing minutes2.7%
3 Out / Doubtful 1 GTD
Key sidelined

Tyrese Haliburton, Ben Sheppard, Johnny Furphy

New York Knicks

Low absence load

No rotation players ruled out on the latest report.

Official NBA injury report

Indiana Pacers

  • Out Tyrese Haliburton G Injury · 23.0 PPG · 33.0 MPG
  • Out Johnny Furphy G Injury · 4.7 PPG · 21.2 MPG
  • Out Ben Sheppard G Injury · 7.4 PPG · 19.3 MPG
  • Questionable Aaron Nesmith G-F Injury · 12.0 PPG · 25.7 MPG
  • Probable T.J. McConnell G Injury · 5.0 PPG · 10.3 MPG

New York Knicks

No player who matters is listed.

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Indiana Pacers

Projected Starters
  • F Pascal Siakam
    32.2 MPG 21.9 PPG 7.2 RPG 4.9 APG
  • G-F Andrew Nembhard
    33.4 MPG 17.1 PPG 2.1 RPG 8.0 APG
  • G-F Aaron Nesmith GTD
    25.7 MPG 12.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Quenton Jackson
    22.7 MPG 10.0 PPG 3.7 RPG 2.7 APG
  • G-F Kelly Oubre Jr.
    23.5 MPG 11.1 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.1 APG
Key Bench
  • F Jarace Walker
    21.7 MPG 7.7 PPG 5.7 RPG 1.7 APG
  • C Jay Huff
    19.0 MPG 7.8 PPG 4.0 RPG 1.0 APG
  • F Obi Toppin
    20.1 MPG 11.7 PPG 5.0 RPG 1.7 APG

New York Knicks

Projected Starters
  • G Jalen Brunson
    33.3 MPG 26.5 PPG 2.9 RPG 5.4 APG
  • G-F OG Anunoby
    32.9 MPG 17.1 PPG 5.4 RPG 2.6 APG
  • F-C Karl-Anthony Towns
    32.1 MPG 21.1 PPG 13.7 RPG 3.8 APG
  • G Josh Hart
    31.1 MPG 7.4 PPG 6.9 RPG 3.9 APG
  • G Landry Shamet
    26.0 MPG 10.1 PPG 1.6 RPG 1.9 APG
Key Bench
  • G-F Mikal Bridges
    23.5 MPG 6.1 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.2 APG
  • G Miles McBride
    19.4 MPG 8.4 PPG 1.6 RPG 1.2 APG
  • C Andre Drummond
    12.4 MPG 3.5 PPG 7.5 RPG 1.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Indiana Pacers

#19 of 30
Net rating -1.8 30d: -0.6
Pace: -0.7 (#8 of 30)

New York Knicks

#7 of 30
Net rating +4.6 30d: -2.7
Pace: -4.6 (#30 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Indiana Pacers

Net 46
Shot quality (TS%) 50
3PT volume & accuracy 51
Ball security & passing 47
Rebounding control 30
Defensive disruption 52

ORtg 108.8 · DRtg 110.3 · Net -1.6 · TS 57.8%

New York Knicks

Net 73
Shot quality (TS%) 43
3PT volume & accuracy 62
Ball security & passing 44
Rebounding control 74
Defensive disruption 57

ORtg 114.4 · DRtg 106.1 · Net +8.3 · TS 56.8%

Indiana Pacers · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 4W actual vs 5.1W expected (12 GP)
New York Knicks · Record vs point differential Stronger profile than W-L (bounce candidate) 6W actual vs 7.8W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Indiana Pacers

Win rate when leading at HT 4/6 (67%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/9 (11%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.1 (49.3%) 2H: 56.7 (50.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-3 10+ pt margins: 3-5

New York Knicks

Win rate when leading at HT 6/9 (67%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 3/6 (50%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.0 (50.6%) 2H: 53.7 (49.4%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-3 10+ pt margins: 5-0

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

INDNYK
Points scored / game 111.1 111.3
Points allowed / game 112.7 103.2
Average game total 223.8 214.5
Average 1st-half total 112.0 106.6
Possessions / 48 min 102.1 97.3
Games with 220+ pts 4/10 3/10
Games with 230+ pts 3/10 2/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 2/10
Scored 115+ pts 3/10 3/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Indiana Pacers

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

New York Knicks

1 day rest
3 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Indiana Pacers

  • #1 Pascal Siakam F 19.7% pts share
    21.9 PPG · 7.2 RPG · 4.9 APG · 1.7 3PM 18.6% FGA
  • #2 Andrew Nembhard G-F 15.4% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 2.1 RPG · 8.0 APG · 2.9 3PM 15.1% FGA
  • #3 Aaron Nesmith G-F GTD 10.8% pts share
    12.0 PPG · 2.0 RPG · 1.8 APG · 1.9 3PM 12.4% FGA

New York Knicks

  • #1 Jalen Brunson G 23.8% pts share
    26.5 PPG · 2.9 RPG · 5.4 APG · 2.8 3PM 23.7% FGA
  • #2 Karl-Anthony Towns F-C 19.0% pts share
    21.1 PPG · 13.7 RPG · 3.8 APG · 1.8 3PM 15.9% FGA
  • #3 OG Anunoby G-F 15.4% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 2.6 APG · 2.3 3PM 13.3% FGA

Last five games

Indiana Pacers

  • W 114-101 vs Washington Wizards (H) 12 Nov
  • L 122-125 at Dallas Mavericks (A) 10 Nov
  • L 102-114 at Denver Nuggets (A) 7 Nov
  • W 107-103 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 5 Nov
  • L 104-108 vs Atlanta Hawks (H) 3 Nov

New York Knicks

  • L 107-115 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 12 Nov
  • W 117-85 vs Milwaukee Bucks (H) 11 Nov
  • W 109-97 at Cleveland Cavaliers (A) 8 Nov
  • W 135-105 vs Chicago Bulls (H) 5 Nov
  • W 103-90 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

IND · 5W NYK · 5W
Avg total pts: 232.8 IND avg: 115.3 NYK avg: 117.5 225+ pt games: 6/10 IND at home: 2-3
  • 17 Mar 2026 NYK 136‑110 IND
  • 13 Mar 2026 IND 92‑101 NYK
  • 10 Feb 2026 NYK 134‑137 (OT) IND
  • 18 Dec 2025 IND 113‑114 NYK
  • 31 May 2025 IND 125‑108 NYK
  • 29 May 2025 NYK 111‑94 IND
  • 27 May 2025 IND 130‑121 NYK
  • 25 May 2025 IND 100‑106 NYK
  • 23 May 2025 NYK 109‑114 IND
  • 21 May 2025 NYK 135‑138 (OT) IND

Season profile comparison

INDNYK
Record 4-8 6-5
At home 1-4 4-3
On the road 3-4 2-2
Conference 11 of 15, Eastern Conference 5 of 15, Eastern Conference
Streak – –
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #19 of 30 #6 of 30
Pace #10 of 30 #30 of 30

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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