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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Miami Heat vs Cleveland Cavaliers Prediction and Preview

Miami Heat 5-6
vs
Cleveland Cavaliers 6-6
Kaseya Center, Miami

Our picks

  • Winner Miami Heat
    Model probability 57% 43%
  • First half Miami Heat ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Around the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • Miami Heat points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Cleveland Cavaliers points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
MIA 116–122
CLE 112–118
Game script Close / clutch finish
1st-half scoring Typical 1st-half pace 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Cleveland Cavaliers hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Caution factor
  • Home-court advantage for Miami Heat Slight edge
  • Cleveland Cavaliers shorthanded on the official injury report Slight edge
  • Both teams push an above-average possession tempo Pushes total up

Players

PTSREBAST
Bam Adebayo Over 17.5 Over 8.5 Under 3.5 F-C · 33.4 MPG PRA: Over 29.5
Davion Mitchell Under 16.5 Under 2.5 Under 8.5 G · 36.0 MPG PRA: Under 27.5
Giannis Antetokounmpo Under 27.5 Under 12.5 Under 5.5 F · 33.0 MPG PRA: Under 45.5 ★ Top lean: REB
James Harden Over 16.5 Under 4.5 Over 5.5 G · 32.5 MPG PRA: Over 26.5
Donovan Mitchell Over 22.5 Under 5.5 Under 5.5 G · 32.4 MPG PRA: Over 33.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Peyton Watson Over 11.5 Under 4.5 Under 2.5 G · 27.8 MPG PRA: Over 18.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

The pick is Miami Heat, and it rests on small edges that add up: they play at home, they have had two days of rest against Cleveland's one, and Cleveland arrive without Evan Mobley and Sam Merrill, both listed as Out. The strongest argument against it is that our ratings have Cleveland slightly the stronger team, with Pelle Larsson and Klay Thompson both Questionable for Miami. Taken together, though, home court, fresher legs and those absences clearly outweigh that. The call is narrow.

Total points: The total points sit around the league average. Both teams play at a quicker pace than a normal NBA game and their meetings produce more points per possession, which pushes the number up, while the absences on the injury report pull it back down.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 64 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 50% and 60%, it was right 63% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Miami Heat 6 of 11 right (55%)
  • Cleveland Cavaliers 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Kaseya Center
City
Miami
Since last match
Miami Heat: Utah Jazz (109‑115) Cleveland Cavaliers: New York Knicks (107‑115)
Next match
Miami Heat: Detroit Pistons Cleveland Cavaliers: Dallas Mavericks

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Miami Heat

Low absence load
Missing offense0.0%
Missing minutes0.0%
2 GTD

Cleveland Cavaliers

Moderate absence load
Missing offense18.8%
Missing minutes19.8%
3 Out / Doubtful 1 starter out
Key sidelined

Evan Mobley, Sam Merrill

Official NBA injury report

Miami Heat

  • Questionable Pelle Larsson G Injury · 12.3 PPG · 30.1 MPG
  • Questionable Klay Thompson G-F Injury · 14.8 PPG · 25.6 MPG
  • Probable Giannis Antetokounmpo F Injury · 27.0 PPG · 33.0 MPG

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • Out Evan Mobley C Injury · 16.5 PPG · 31.6 MPG
  • Out Sam Merrill G Injury · 8.1 PPG · 23.3 MPG
  • Out Nae'Qwan Tomlin F Injury · 4.9 PPG · 9.6 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Miami Heat

Projected Starters
  • G Davion Mitchell
    36.0 MPG 17.0 PPG 2.2 RPG 8.2 APG
  • F-C Bam Adebayo
    33.4 MPG 18.1 PPG 8.5 RPG 3.2 APG
  • F Giannis Antetokounmpo
    33.0 MPG 27.0 PPG 13.3 RPG 5.6 APG
  • G Pelle Larsson GTD
    30.1 MPG 12.3 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.5 APG
  • G-F Klay Thompson GTD
    25.6 MPG 14.8 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.1 APG
Key Bench
  • F Andrew Wiggins
    25.6 MPG 8.5 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.5 APG
  • F Bobby Portis Jr.
    19.9 MPG 6.8 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Tim Hardaway Jr.
    14.3 MPG 4.8 PPG 1.0 RPG 0.6 APG

Cleveland Cavaliers

Projected Starters
  • G James Harden
    32.5 MPG 17.2 PPG 4.4 RPG 5.5 APG
  • G Donovan Mitchell
    32.4 MPG 22.0 PPG 4.5 RPG 5.9 APG
  • G Peyton Watson
    27.1 MPG 11.4 PPG 5.2 RPG 2.8 APG
  • C Jarrett Allen
    24.6 MPG 11.8 PPG 8.5 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Meleek Thomas
    22.9 MPG 13.1 PPG 2.8 RPG 1.2 APG
Key Bench
  • G-F Mario Hezonja
    18.9 MPG 7.5 PPG 5.7 RPG 1.5 APG
  • G Tyrese Proctor
    19.2 MPG 7.8 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.3 APG
  • G-F Jaylon Tyson
    20.5 MPG 6.0 PPG 2.8 RPG 2.2 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Miami Heat

#15 of 30
Net rating -0.6 30d: -0.1
Pace: 2.3 (#1 of 30)

Cleveland Cavaliers

#11 of 30
Net rating +1.5 30d: -3.0
Pace: -1.5 (#15 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Miami Heat

Net 44
Shot quality (TS%) 44
3PT volume & accuracy 50
Ball security & passing 50
Rebounding control 48
Defensive disruption 33

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 112.4 · Net -2.1 · TS 56.9%

Cleveland Cavaliers

Net 58
Shot quality (TS%) 53
3PT volume & accuracy 66
Ball security & passing 70
Rebounding control 47
Defensive disruption 55

ORtg 115.3 · DRtg 112.4 · Net +2.9 · TS 58.2%

Miami Heat · Record vs point differential Outperforming point differential (close-game luck) 5W actual vs 4.1W expected (11 GP)
Cleveland Cavaliers · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 6W actual vs 6.7W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Miami Heat

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/7 (14%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 60.9 (50.9%) 2H: 58.8 (49.1%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-3 10+ pt margins: 4-5

Cleveland Cavaliers

Win rate when leading at HT 4/5 (80%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/10 (20%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 55.5 (49.3%) 2H: 57.2 (50.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-2 10+ pt margins: 3-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

MIACLE
Points scored / game 116.7 116.6
Points allowed / game 118.9 113.7
Average game total 235.6 230.3
Average 1st-half total 122.2 112.3
Possessions / 48 min 104.7 100.1
Games with 220+ pts 10/10 8/10
Games with 230+ pts 5/10 5/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 3/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 6/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Miami Heat

2 days rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Cleveland Cavaliers

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 3

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Miami Heat

  • #1 Giannis Antetokounmpo F 23.1% pts share
    27.0 PPG · 13.3 RPG · 5.6 APG · 0.6 3PM 21.1% FGA
  • #2 Davion Mitchell G 14.6% pts share
    17.0 PPG · 2.2 RPG · 8.2 APG · 2.4 3PM 14.2% FGA
  • #3 Bam Adebayo F-C 15.5% pts share
    18.1 PPG · 8.5 RPG · 3.2 APG · 0.5 3PM 14.1% FGA

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • #1 Donovan Mitchell G 18.9% pts share
    22.0 PPG · 4.5 RPG · 5.9 APG · 2.8 3PM 17.8% FGA
  • #2 James Harden G 14.8% pts share
    17.2 PPG · 4.4 RPG · 5.5 APG · 2.8 3PM 14.0% FGA
  • #3 Peyton Watson G 9.8% pts share
    11.4 PPG · 5.2 RPG · 2.8 APG · 1.0 3PM 12.5% FGA

Last five games

Miami Heat

  • W 115-109 at Utah Jazz (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-108 at Sacramento Kings (A) 9 Nov
  • L 100-120 at Golden State Warriors (A) 6 Nov
  • W 117-116 at LA Clippers (A) 5 Nov
  • L 117-138 at Los Angeles Lakers (A) 3 Nov

Cleveland Cavaliers

  • W 115-107 at New York Knicks (A) 12 Nov
  • L 112-124 at Charlotte Hornets (A) 10 Nov
  • L 97-109 vs New York Knicks (H) 8 Nov
  • W 119-95 vs Philadelphia 76ers (H) 7 Nov
  • L 116-124 at Oklahoma City Thunder (A) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

MIA · 2W CLE · 8W
Avg total pts: 236.1 MIA avg: 109.9 CLE avg: 126.2 225+ pt games: 5/10 MIA at home: 1-4
  • 27 Mar 2026 CLE 149‑128 MIA
  • 25 Mar 2026 CLE 103‑120 MIA
  • 12 Nov 2025 MIA 116‑130 CLE
  • 10 Nov 2025 MIA 140‑138 (OT) CLE
  • 28 Apr 2025 MIA 83‑138 CLE
  • 26 Apr 2025 MIA 87‑124 CLE
  • 23 Apr 2025 CLE 121‑112 MIA
  • 20 Apr 2025 CLE 121‑100 MIA
  • 5 Mar 2025 CLE 112‑107 MIA
  • 29 Jan 2025 MIA 106‑126 CLE

Season profile comparison

MIACLE
Record 5-6 6-6
At home 1-3 4-2
On the road 4-3 2-4
Conference 7 of 15, Eastern Conference 6 of 15, Eastern Conference
Streak Won 2 in a row –
Days of rest 2 1
Our team rating #16 of 30 #11 of 30
Pace #2 of 30 #15 of 30

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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