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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

New Orleans Pelicans vs Memphis Grizzlies Prediction and Preview

New Orleans Pelicans 4-8
vs
Memphis Grizzlies 7-4
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Our picks

  • Winner Memphis Grizzlies
    Model probability 48% 52%
  • First half Memphis Grizzlies ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Around the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • New Orleans Pelicans points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Memphis Grizzlies points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
NOP 112–118
MEM 113–119
Game script Close / clutch finish
1st-half scoring Typical 1st-half pace 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Memphis Grizzlies hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Notable edge
  • Home-court advantage for New Orleans Pelicans Minor offset
  • Matchup projects above-average points per possession Lifts scoring
  • Half-court tempo projects fewer possessions than average Lowers total

Players

PTSREBAST
Jeremiah Fears Over 15.5 Under 4.5 Over 4.5 G · 30.1 MPG PRA: Over 24.5
Zion Williamson Under 21.5 Under 5.5 Over 2.5 F · 32.9 MPG PRA: Over 29.5
Dejounte Murray Over 13.5 Under 4.5 Over 4.5 G · 31.1 MPG PRA: Over 22.5 ★ Top lean: AST
Cedric Coward Over 12.5 Under 8.5 Under 2.5 G · 28.3 MPG PRA: Under 23.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Ty Jerome Under 26.5 Under 3.5 Over 4.5 G-F · 30.8 MPG PRA: Under 34.5
Cameron Boozer Under 15.5 Under 9.5 Under 5.5 F · 32.1 MPG PRA: Under 30.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes the Memphis Grizzlies the narrow pick, mainly because it rates them slightly stronger than the New Orleans Pelicans once results and availability are taken together. Home court is the argument the other way, a small edge for a New Orleans team that has gone 3‑4 at home. It does not flip the call: Memphis have won all five on the road, while the Pelicans have lost four in a row and sit 12th in the Western Conference. The injury report thins both sides, New Orleans with Trey Murphy III doubtful and Trendon Watford out, Memphis with four out. The call is narrow.

Total points: Our model puts the total level with the league average: both teams' games have produced more points per possession than a typical NBA game, but the two sides together play at a slower pace and the absences on the injury report lower expected scoring.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 64 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 50% and 60%, it was right 63% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • New Orleans Pelicans 9 of 12 right (75%)
  • Memphis Grizzlies 3 of 11 right (27%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
Smoothie King Center
City
New Orleans
Since last match
New Orleans Pelicans: Brooklyn Nets (111‑145) Memphis Grizzlies: Denver Nuggets (118‑123)
Next match
New Orleans Pelicans: Denver Nuggets Memphis Grizzlies: Brooklyn Nets

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

New Orleans Pelicans

Moderate absence load
Missing offense20.4%
Missing minutes22.3%
5 Out / Doubtful 1 starter out
Key sidelined

Trey Murphy III, Bennedict Mathurin, Trendon Watford

Memphis Grizzlies

Moderate absence load
Missing offense9.7%
Missing minutes13.7%
4 Out / Doubtful
Key sidelined

Zach Edey, Quinten Post, Scotty Pippen Jr.

Official NBA injury report

New Orleans Pelicans

  • Out Trendon Watford G-F Injury · 7.2 PPG · 17.8 MPG
  • Doubtful Trey Murphy III F Injury · 17.1 PPG · 33.1 MPG
  • Doubtful Yves Missi C Injury · 7.4 PPG · 22.6 MPG
  • Doubtful Bennedict Mathurin G-F Injury · 5.7 PPG · 15.6 MPG
  • Doubtful Bryce McGowens G Injury · 3.7 PPG · 10.6 MPG

Memphis Grizzlies

  • Out Zach Edey C Injury · 7.8 PPG · 20.8 MPG
  • Out Scotty Pippen Jr. G Injury · 5.8 PPG · 15.2 MPG
  • Out Quinten Post C Injury · 4.7 PPG · 12.0 MPG
  • Out Richie Saunders Injury

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Starters
  • F Zion Williamson
    32.9 MPG 21.6 PPG 5.4 RPG 2.7 APG
  • G Jeremiah Fears
    30.1 MPG 16.8 PPG 5.1 RPG 5.7 APG
  • G Dejounte Murray
    31.3 MPG 11.7 PPG 4.6 RPG 3.9 APG
  • F Saddiq Bey
    27.6 MPG 15.2 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.7 APG
  • F Herbert Jones
    24.0 MPG 6.0 PPG 3.3 RPG 1.3 APG
Key Bench
  • C Derik Queen
    21.2 MPG 12.4 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.5 APG
  • F-C Karlo Matković
    19.8 MPG 8.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 1.2 APG
  • G Jordan Poole
    21.2 MPG 7.2 PPG 1.8 RPG 2.5 APG

Memphis Grizzlies

Projected Starters
  • F Cameron Boozer
    32.1 MPG 16.8 PPG 9.7 RPG 5.5 APG
  • G-F Ty Jerome
    30.7 MPG 24.1 PPG 3.1 RPG 4.8 APG
  • G Cedric Coward
    28.3 MPG 13.4 PPG 8.9 RPG 2.8 APG
  • F Jaylen Wells
    27.2 MPG 12.0 PPG 2.8 RPG 1.4 APG
  • F Jerami Grant
    23.4 MPG 10.3 PPG 2.2 RPG 2.0 APG
Key Bench
  • G Cam Spencer
    19.8 MPG 9.9 PPG 3.3 RPG 5.1 APG
  • F-C Isaiah Stewart
    18.2 MPG 10.8 PPG 3.1 RPG 0.8 APG
  • G Javon Small
    20.0 MPG 7.2 PPG 2.0 RPG 4.0 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

New Orleans Pelicans

#24 of 30
Net rating -3.7 30d: -0.3
Pace: -0.7 (#9 of 30)

Memphis Grizzlies

#16 of 30
Net rating -1.1 30d: +3.5
Pace: -1.1 (#12 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

New Orleans Pelicans

Net 28
Shot quality (TS%) 55
3PT volume & accuracy 29
Ball security & passing 24
Rebounding control 40
Defensive disruption 39

ORtg 109.9 · DRtg 117.8 · Net -7.9 · TS 58.5%

Memphis Grizzlies

Net 63
Shot quality (TS%) 61
3PT volume & accuracy 68
Ball security & passing 26
Rebounding control 59
Defensive disruption 51

ORtg 114.0 · DRtg 109.6 · Net +4.5 · TS 59.3%

New Orleans Pelicans · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 4W actual vs 3.6W expected (12 GP)
Memphis Grizzlies · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 7.4W expected (11 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

New Orleans Pelicans

Win rate when leading at HT 3/5 (60%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/10 (20%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 56.9 (47.4%) 2H: 63.3 (52.6%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-3 10+ pt margins: 3-5

Memphis Grizzlies

Win rate when leading at HT 6/8 (75%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 0/6 (0%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 58.7 (50.5%) 2H: 57.6 (49.5%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-3 10+ pt margins: 5-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

NOPMEM
Points scored / game 116.4 117.4
Points allowed / game 124.8 112.8
Average game total 241.2 230.2
Average 1st-half total 116.6 116.5
Possessions / 48 min 102.7 101.9
Games with 220+ pts 9/10 7/10
Games with 230+ pts 6/10 4/10
Games with 240+ pts 5/10 3/10
Scored 115+ pts 6/10 6/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

New Orleans Pelicans

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 4 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Memphis Grizzlies

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • #1 Zion Williamson F 18.6% pts share
    21.6 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 2.7 APG · 0.2 3PM 13.9% FGA
  • #2 Jeremiah Fears G 14.4% pts share
    16.8 PPG · 5.1 RPG · 5.7 APG · 1.2 3PM 16.5% FGA
  • #3 Saddiq Bey F 13.1% pts share
    15.2 PPG · 3.3 RPG · 2.7 APG · 1.7 3PM 13.3% FGA

Memphis Grizzlies

  • #1 Ty Jerome G-F 20.5% pts share
    24.1 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 4.8 APG · 2.3 3PM 19.8% FGA
  • #2 Cameron Boozer F 14.3% pts share
    16.8 PPG · 9.7 RPG · 5.5 APG · 2.0 3PM 15.5% FGA
  • #3 Cedric Coward G 11.4% pts share
    13.4 PPG · 8.9 RPG · 2.8 APG · 2.4 3PM 12.3% FGA

Last five games

New Orleans Pelicans

  • L 111-145 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 12 Nov
  • L 87-138 at Golden State Warriors (A) 10 Nov
  • L 123-139 at LA Clippers (A) 9 Nov
  • L 109-115 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 7 Nov
  • W 120-113 vs Utah Jazz (H) 5 Nov

Memphis Grizzlies

  • L 118-123 vs Denver Nuggets (H) 12 Nov
  • W 118-102 at Toronto Raptors (A) 10 Nov
  • L 97-128 vs Oklahoma City Thunder (H) 7 Nov
  • L 103-107 vs Indiana Pacers (H) 5 Nov
  • L 134-135 vs New Orleans Pelicans (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

NOP · 4W MEM · 6W
Avg total pts: 240.4 NOP avg: 119.1 MEM avg: 121.3 225+ pt games: 7/10 NOP at home: 1-3
  • 2 Nov 2026 MEM 134‑135 (OT) NOP
  • 30 Jan 2026 NOP 114‑106 MEM
  • 23 Jan 2026 MEM 127‑133 NOP
  • 26 Nov 2025 NOP 128‑133 (OT) MEM
  • 22 Oct 2025 MEM 128‑122 NOP
  • 9 Mar 2025 NOP 104‑107 MEM
  • 24 Jan 2025 MEM 139‑126 NOP
  • 27 Dec 2024 NOP 124‑132 MEM
  • 29 Nov 2024 MEM 120‑109 NOP
  • 12 Feb 2024 MEM 87‑96 NOP

Season profile comparison

NOPMEM
Record 4-8 7-4
At home 3-4 2-4
On the road 1-4 5-0
Conference 12 of 15, Western Conference 9 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Lost 4 in a row –
Days of rest 1 1
Our team rating #24 of 30 #17 of 30
Pace #11 of 30 #12 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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