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NBA · Regular season, NBA Cup game

Chicago Bulls vs Atlanta Hawks Prediction and Preview

Chicago Bulls 1-9
vs
Atlanta Hawks 7-5
United Center, Chicago

Our picks

  • Winner Atlanta Hawks
    Model probability 40% 60%
  • First half Atlanta Hawks ahead
    Model probability
  • Total points Above the league average(league average 231.5)
    Model probability Over 221.5 Over 231.5 Over 241.5
  • Chicago Bulls points Around the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5
  • Atlanta Hawks points Above the league average(league average 115.5)
    Model probability Over 109.5 Over 115.5 Over 121.5

Projected game flow & score range

Coarse model projection bands and tempo profile — exact points unlock with full probabilities.

Projected score band
CHI 112–118
ATL 116–122
Game script Close / clutch finish
1st-half scoring Fast-paced 1st half 1H avg 116.5

Key model decision drivers

Primary factors shaping our winner and total-points projections.

  • Atlanta Hawks hold the stronger net team & lineup rating Decisive edge
  • Home-court advantage for Chicago Bulls Minor offset
  • Atlanta Hawks shorthanded on the official injury report Minor offset
  • Both teams push an above-average possession tempo Strong over boost

Players

PTSREBAST
Matas Buzelis Over 13.5 Over 4.5 Under 2.5 F · 26.3 MPG PRA: Over 20.5
Josh Giddey Over 10.5 Over 4.5 Over 8.5 G · 27.7 MPG PRA: Over 23.5 ★ Top lean: REB
Patrick Williams Over 7.5 Over 2.5 Over 1.5 F · 26.5 MPG PRA: Over 11.5
Nickeil Alexander-Walker Under 21.5 Under 3.5 Over 2.5 G · 31.4 MPG PRA: Under 27.5
Jalen Johnson Over 19.5 Over 8.5 Under 7.5 F · 33.5 MPG PRA: Over 35.5
Onyeka Okongwu Over 13.5 Under 8.5 Over 2.5 F-C · 30.4 MPG PRA: Over 24.5

Over or under each player's season average (the line), for the three players a side we expect to play the most minutes.

See exactly how confident our model is

The first half, the points lines and the player lines: these probabilities are for members until the game is over.

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Why this pick?

Our model makes the Hawks the pick because it rates them clearly the stronger team: 7‑5 and fourth in the Eastern Conference against a Bulls side at 1‑9, on a five-game losing run and 27th of 30 on our ratings. The case against is light. Chicago have home court, though they are 0‑4 there, and Atlanta are missing players, with Jalen Wilson doubtful and Keshon Gilbert out. The gap in results and in the players available still outweighs both, and three days of rest should leave the Hawks the fresher team. The call is moderate.

Total points: Both teams play fast, Chicago at the fastest pace in the league and Atlanta third, and their games also produce more points per possession than usual, while the absences on the injury report pull it back only slightly; our model sees the total above the league average.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Picks in this confidence band

Across 57 settled NBA games where our winner pick was between 60% and 70%, it was right 68% of the time.

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Chicago Bulls 8 of 10 right (80%)
  • Atlanta Hawks 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season, NBA Cup game
Tip-off
Arena
United Center
City
Chicago
Since last match
Chicago Bulls: San Antonio Spurs (119‑124) Atlanta Hawks: Los Angeles Lakers (114‑124)
Next match
Chicago Bulls: Minnesota Timberwolves Atlanta Hawks: Milwaukee Bucks

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Chicago Bulls

Moderate absence load
Missing offense15.1%
Missing minutes14.5%
2 Out / Doubtful 1 starter out 2 GTD
Key sidelined

Caleb Wilson

Atlanta Hawks

Low absence load
Missing offense1.4%
Missing minutes2.0%
5 Out / Doubtful 2 GTD
Key sidelined

Jalen Wilson, Keshon Gilbert

Official NBA injury report

Chicago Bulls

  • Out Caleb Wilson F Injury · 18.9 PPG · 30.7 MPG
  • Out Tobe Awaka F Injury · 2.0 PPG · 10.0 MPG
  • Questionable Norman Powell G Injury · 19.2 PPG · 28.9 MPG
  • Questionable Dailyn Swain F Injury · 2.5 PPG · 9.5 MPG

Atlanta Hawks

  • Out Keshon Gilbert G Injury · 4.2 PPG · 18.5 MPG
  • Out Asa Newell F Injury · 3.8 PPG · 11.8 MPG
  • Out Mouhamed Gueye F Injury · 2.3 PPG · 10.5 MPG
  • Out Henri Veesaar Injury
  • Doubtful Jalen Wilson F G League · 11.3 PPG · 23.9 MPG
  • Questionable Kingston Flemings G Injury · 9.8 PPG · 22.3 MPG
  • Questionable RayJ Dennis G G League · 4.0 PPG · 8.0 MPG

The report of 12 Nov, 23:00 (US Eastern time), players with real minutes only.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Chicago Bulls

Projected Starters
  • G Josh Giddey
    27.7 MPG 10.2 PPG 4.6 RPG 8.3 APG
  • G Norman Powell GTD
    28.9 MPG 19.2 PPG 2.5 RPG 1.6 APG
  • F Matas Buzelis
    26.3 MPG 13.5 PPG 4.3 RPG 2.0 APG
  • F-C Jalen Smith
    23.9 MPG 12.8 PPG 7.4 RPG 1.9 APG
  • G-F Isaac Okoro
    19.1 MPG 5.2 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG
Key Bench
  • G Tre Jones
    18.7 MPG 10.6 PPG 2.5 RPG 2.9 APG
  • F Patrick Williams
    24.3 MPG 6.7 PPG 3.3 RPG 3.0 APG
  • F Leonard Miller
    15.9 MPG 6.3 PPG 3.7 RPG 0.9 APG

Atlanta Hawks

Projected Starters
  • F Jalen Johnson
    35.1 MPG 19.1 PPG 8.0 RPG 7.3 APG
  • G Nickeil Alexander-Walker
    31.4 MPG 21.8 PPG 3.2 RPG 2.3 APG
  • G Dyson Daniels
    30.6 MPG 8.7 PPG 7.2 RPG 6.1 APG
  • F-C Onyeka Okongwu
    30.4 MPG 14.6 PPG 8.8 RPG 2.6 APG
  • G CJ McCollum
    26.0 MPG 13.1 PPG 3.1 RPG 4.3 APG
Key Bench
  • G Aaron Wiggins
    25.8 MPG 14.4 PPG 4.0 RPG 2.8 APG
  • G Luguentz Dort
    25.1 MPG 9.5 PPG 3.0 RPG 1.9 APG
  • G Kingston Flemings GTD
    22.3 MPG 9.8 PPG 2.1 RPG 4.1 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Chicago Bulls

#27 of 30
Net rating -5.1 30d: +0.9
Pace: 2.3 (#2 of 30)

Atlanta Hawks

#13 of 30
Net rating +0.3 30d: -0.1
Pace: 1.7 (#3 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Chicago Bulls

Net 12
Shot quality (TS%) 31
3PT volume & accuracy 31
Ball security & passing 29
Rebounding control 39
Defensive disruption 37

ORtg 106.4 · DRtg 121.0 · Net -14.6 · TS 55.1%

Atlanta Hawks

Net 42
Shot quality (TS%) 31
3PT volume & accuracy 52
Ball security & passing 48
Rebounding control 57
Defensive disruption 39

ORtg 110.2 · DRtg 113.0 · Net -2.8 · TS 55.0%

Chicago Bulls · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 1W actual vs 1.4W expected (10 GP)
Atlanta Hawks · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 7W actual vs 6.7W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Chicago Bulls

Win rate when leading at HT 2/5 (40%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/10 (10%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.1 (49.8%) 2H: 57.7 (50.2%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 0-2 10+ pt margins: 2-8

Atlanta Hawks

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/8 (12%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.1 (50.3%) 2H: 56.4 (49.7%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 3-0 10+ pt margins: 2-7

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

CHIATL
Points scored / game 113.3 115.9
Points allowed / game 128.8 118.8
Average game total 242.1 234.7
Average 1st-half total 123.4 120.1
Possessions / 48 min 106.5 105.1
Games with 220+ pts 10/10 9/10
Games with 230+ pts 9/10 6/10
Games with 240+ pts 6/10 3/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Chicago Bulls

1 day rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 3

Atlanta Hawks

3 days rest
1 in 4 nights 2 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 1

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Chicago Bulls

  • #1 Josh Giddey G 9.0% pts share
    10.2 PPG · 4.6 RPG · 8.3 APG · 1.0 3PM 10.4% FGA
  • #2 Norman Powell G GTD 16.9% pts share
    19.2 PPG · 2.5 RPG · 1.6 APG · 2.1 3PM 14.4% FGA
  • #3 Matas Buzelis F 11.9% pts share
    13.5 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 2.0 APG · 1.6 3PM 11.0% FGA

Atlanta Hawks

  • #1 Jalen Johnson F 16.5% pts share
    19.1 PPG · 8.0 RPG · 7.3 APG · 1.1 3PM 15.2% FGA
  • #2 Nickeil Alexander-Walker G 18.8% pts share
    21.8 PPG · 3.2 RPG · 2.3 APG · 4.0 3PM 18.2% FGA
  • #3 CJ McCollum G 11.3% pts share
    13.1 PPG · 3.1 RPG · 4.3 APG · 1.6 3PM 13.0% FGA

Last five games

Chicago Bulls

  • L 119-124 vs San Antonio Spurs (H) 12 Nov
  • L 121-127 vs Philadelphia 76ers (H) 8 Nov
  • L 105-135 at New York Knicks (A) 5 Nov
  • L 107-126 at Philadelphia 76ers (A) 3 Nov
  • L 111-125 at Boston Celtics (A) 30 Oct

Atlanta Hawks

  • L 114-124 vs Los Angeles Lakers (H) 10 Nov
  • W 124-121 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 8 Nov
  • W 139-132 vs Washington Wizards (H) 7 Nov
  • W 120-105 at Washington Wizards (A) 5 Nov
  • W 108-104 at Indiana Pacers (A) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

CHI · 7W ATL · 3W
Avg total pts: 249.9 CHI avg: 126.2 ATL avg: 123.7 225+ pt games: 8/10 CHI at home: 3-2
  • 23 Dec 2025 ATL 123‑126 CHI
  • 21 Dec 2025 ATL 150‑152 CHI
  • 27 Oct 2025 CHI 128‑123 ATL
  • 15 Jan 2025 CHI 94‑110 ATL
  • 26 Dec 2024 ATL 141‑133 CHI
  • 22 Nov 2024 CHI 136‑122 ATL
  • 9 Nov 2024 ATL 113‑125 CHI
  • 17 Apr 2024 CHI 131‑116 ATL
  • 1 Apr 2024 CHI 101‑113 ATL
  • 12 Feb 2024 ATL 126‑136 CHI

Season profile comparison

CHIATL
Record 1-9 7-5
At home 0-4 3-3
On the road 1-5 4-2
Conference 14 of 15, Eastern Conference 4 of 15, Eastern Conference
Streak Lost 5 in a row –
Days of rest 1 3
Our team rating #27 of 30 #13 of 30
Pace #1 of 30 #3 of 30

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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