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NBA · Regular season

Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder: Preview and Stats

Miami Heat 5-6
vs
Oklahoma City Thunder 8-4
Kaseya Center, Miami

Our picks

Our picks for Miami Heat vs Oklahoma City Thunder come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • Miami Heat 6 of 11 right (55%)
  • Oklahoma City Thunder 7 of 12 right (58%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 21 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Kaseya Center
City
Miami
Since last match
Miami Heat: Milwaukee Bucks Oklahoma City Thunder: New Orleans Pelicans
Next match
Miami Heat: Philadelphia 76ers Oklahoma City Thunder: Indiana Pacers

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

Miami Heat

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

Miami Heat

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Oklahoma City Thunder

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

Miami Heat

Projected Starters
  • G Davion Mitchell
    36.0 MPG 17.0 PPG 2.2 RPG 8.2 APG
  • F-C Bam Adebayo
    33.4 MPG 18.1 PPG 8.5 RPG 3.2 APG
  • F Giannis Antetokounmpo
    33.0 MPG 27.0 PPG 13.3 RPG 5.6 APG
  • G Pelle Larsson
    30.1 MPG 12.3 PPG 3.5 RPG 3.5 APG
  • G-F Klay Thompson
    25.6 MPG 14.8 PPG 1.6 RPG 2.1 APG
Key Bench
  • F Andrew Wiggins
    25.6 MPG 8.5 PPG 2.9 RPG 1.5 APG
  • F Bobby Portis Jr.
    19.9 MPG 6.8 PPG 6.0 RPG 1.8 APG
  • G Tim Hardaway Jr.
    14.3 MPG 4.8 PPG 1.0 RPG 0.6 APG

Oklahoma City Thunder

Projected Starters
  • G Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
    32.3 MPG 30.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 4.7 APG
  • G Jared McCain
    27.4 MPG 12.8 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.0 APG
  • G Ajay Mitchell
    28.2 MPG 20.8 PPG 3.9 RPG 3.3 APG
  • F-C Isaiah Hartenstein
    26.0 MPG 8.6 PPG 11.2 RPG 3.9 APG
  • C Aday Mara
    23.1 MPG 9.3 PPG 7.0 RPG 1.6 APG
Key Bench
  • G Bennett Stirtz
    22.0 MPG 9.5 PPG 1.4 RPG 1.4 APG
  • G-F Kenrich Williams
    21.5 MPG 7.6 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.3 APG
  • G Alex Caruso
    18.9 MPG 7.4 PPG 4.4 RPG 2.9 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

Miami Heat

#15 of 30
Net rating -0.6 30d: -0.1
Pace: 2.3 (#1 of 30)

Oklahoma City Thunder

#14 of 30
Net rating -0.2 30d: -8.9
Pace: -1.5 (#16 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

Miami Heat

Net 44
Shot quality (TS%) 44
3PT volume & accuracy 50
Ball security & passing 50
Rebounding control 48
Defensive disruption 33

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 112.4 · Net -2.1 · TS 56.9%

Oklahoma City Thunder

Net 57
Shot quality (TS%) 39
3PT volume & accuracy 37
Ball security & passing 46
Rebounding control 53
Defensive disruption 63

ORtg 110.3 · DRtg 107.7 · Net +2.6 · TS 56.2%

Miami Heat · Record vs point differential Outperforming point differential (close-game luck) 5W actual vs 4.1W expected (11 GP)
Oklahoma City Thunder · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 8W actual vs 7.6W expected (12 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

Miami Heat

Win rate when leading at HT 6/7 (86%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 1/7 (14%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 60.9 (50.9%) 2H: 58.8 (49.1%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-3 10+ pt margins: 4-5

Oklahoma City Thunder

Win rate when leading at HT 7/7 (100%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/7 (29%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.3 (52.0%) 2H: 52.9 (48.0%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 1-0 10+ pt margins: 6-5

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

MIAOKC
Points scored / game 116.7 112.1
Points allowed / game 118.9 109.5
Average game total 235.6 221.6
Average 1st-half total 122.2 109.4
Possessions / 48 min 104.7 101.7
Games with 220+ pts 10/10 6/10
Games with 230+ pts 5/10 2/10
Games with 240+ pts 3/10 1/10
Scored 115+ pts 5/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

Miami Heat

3 days rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 1

Oklahoma City Thunder

1 day rest
1 in 4 nights 1 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 3

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

Miami Heat

  • #1 Giannis Antetokounmpo F 23.1% pts share
    27.0 PPG · 13.3 RPG · 5.6 APG · 0.6 3PM 21.1% FGA
  • #2 Davion Mitchell G 14.6% pts share
    17.0 PPG · 2.2 RPG · 8.2 APG · 2.4 3PM 14.2% FGA
  • #3 Bam Adebayo F-C 15.5% pts share
    18.1 PPG · 8.5 RPG · 3.2 APG · 0.5 3PM 14.1% FGA

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • #1 Shai Gilgeous-Alexander G 27.4% pts share
    30.7 PPG · 4.3 RPG · 4.7 APG · 2.1 3PM 25.5% FGA
  • #2 Ajay Mitchell G 18.6% pts share
    20.8 PPG · 3.9 RPG · 3.3 APG · 1.0 3PM 16.9% FGA
  • #3 Jared McCain G 11.4% pts share
    12.8 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.0 APG · 1.7 3PM 13.5% FGA

Last five games

Miami Heat

  • W 115-109 at Utah Jazz (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-108 at Sacramento Kings (A) 9 Nov
  • L 100-120 at Golden State Warriors (A) 6 Nov
  • W 117-116 at LA Clippers (A) 5 Nov
  • L 117-138 at Los Angeles Lakers (A) 3 Nov

Oklahoma City Thunder

  • L 108-118 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 12 Nov
  • L 103-123 at Portland Trail Blazers (A) 11 Nov
  • W 114-75 vs Washington Wizards (H) 8 Nov
  • W 128-97 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 7 Nov
  • W 124-116 vs Cleveland Cavaliers (H) 5 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

MIA · 5W OKC · 5W
Avg total pts: 221.2 MIA avg: 109.7 OKC avg: 111.5 225+ pt games: 4/10 MIA at home: 3-2
  • 17 Jan 2026 MIA 122‑120 OKC
  • 11 Jan 2026 OKC 124‑112 MIA
  • 12 Feb 2025 OKC 115‑101 MIA
  • 20 Dec 2024 MIA 97‑104 OKC
  • 8 Mar 2024 OKC 107‑100 MIA
  • 10 Jan 2024 MIA 120‑128 OKC
  • 10 Jan 2023 MIA 112‑111 OKC
  • 14 Dec 2022 OKC 108‑110 MIA
  • 18 Mar 2022 MIA 120‑108 OKC
  • 15 Nov 2021 OKC 90‑103 MIA

Season profile comparison

MIAOKC
Record 5-6 8-4
At home 1-3 5-0
On the road 4-3 3-4
Conference 7 of 15, Eastern Conference 7 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Won 2 in a row Lost 2 in a row
Days of rest 3 1
Our team rating #15 of 30 #14 of 30
Pace #2 of 30 #16 of 30

Inter-conference matchup — both conference tables shown with Play-off (#6) and Play-in (#10) cut lines.

Eastern Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Boston Celtics 10 2 .833 – 5-0 5-2 9-1 W5
2 Philadelphia 76ers 10 3 .769 0.5 5-2 5-1 7-3 W1
3 Detroit Pistons 8 3 .727 1.5 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
4 Atlanta Hawks 7 5 .583 3.0 3-3 4-2 5-5 L1
5 New York Knicks 6 5 .545 3.5 4-3 2-2 6-4 L1
6 Cleveland Cavaliers 6 6 .500 4.0 4-2 2-4 5-5 W1
7 Miami Heat 5 6 .455 4.5 1-3 4-3 5-5 W2
8 Toronto Raptors 5 7 .417 5.0 2-3 3-4 3-7 L3
9 Orlando Magic 4 7 .364 5.5 0-4 4-3 4-6 W2
10 Charlotte Hornets 4 8 .333 6.0 3-4 1-4 3-7 L1
11 Indiana Pacers 4 8 .333 6.0 1-4 3-4 3-7 W1
12 Washington Wizards 4 9 .308 6.5 2-3 2-6 2-8 L6
13 Brooklyn Nets 3 8 .273 6.5 1-3 2-5 3-7 W1
14 Chicago Bulls 1 9 .100 8.0 0-4 1-5 1-9 L8
15 Milwaukee Bucks 1 11 .083 9.0 1-6 0-5 1-9 L8

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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