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NBA · Regular season

New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets: Preview and Stats

New Orleans Pelicans 4-8
vs
Denver Nuggets 6-4
Smoothie King Center, New Orleans

Our picks

Our picks for New Orleans Pelicans vs Denver Nuggets come out after the official NBA injury report, at most 48 hours before tip-off, and at the latest (3 hours before tip-off).

We are waiting for the result of a team's previous game.

Our NBA model track record for this matchup

Our winner picks on these teams

  • New Orleans Pelicans 9 of 12 right (75%)
  • Denver Nuggets 7 of 10 right (70%)

Settled NBA winner picks since 22 Oct 2026.

Game details

Stage
NBA, Regular season
Tip-off
Arena
Smoothie King Center
City
New Orleans
Since last match
New Orleans Pelicans: Memphis Grizzlies Denver Nuggets: Memphis Grizzlies (118‑123)
Next match
New Orleans Pelicans: Golden State Warriors Denver Nuggets: Phoenix Suns

Missing production & availability impact

Share of last 10 games' offensive creation (PTS + AST) and minutes sidelined.

New Orleans Pelicans

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Official NBA injury report

New Orleans Pelicans

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Denver Nuggets

Official NBA injury report not yet filed for this matchup.

Expected 8-man core rotation

Projected starters and key bench from recent usage and the official injury report.

New Orleans Pelicans

Projected Starters
  • F Zion Williamson
    32.9 MPG 21.6 PPG 5.4 RPG 2.7 APG
  • G Jeremiah Fears
    30.1 MPG 16.8 PPG 5.1 RPG 5.7 APG
  • F Trey Murphy III
    33.1 MPG 17.1 PPG 4.7 RPG 4.0 APG
  • G Dejounte Murray
    31.3 MPG 11.7 PPG 4.6 RPG 3.9 APG
  • F Saddiq Bey
    27.6 MPG 15.2 PPG 3.3 RPG 2.7 APG
Key Bench
  • F Herbert Jones
    24.0 MPG 6.0 PPG 3.3 RPG 1.3 APG
  • C Derik Queen
    21.2 MPG 12.4 PPG 5.9 RPG 2.5 APG
  • F-C Karlo Matković
    19.8 MPG 8.7 PPG 4.3 RPG 1.2 APG

Denver Nuggets

Projected Starters
  • G Jamal Murray
    36.3 MPG 26.2 PPG 5.0 RPG 5.9 APG
  • C Nikola Jokić
    36.3 MPG 23.5 PPG 10.8 RPG 9.0 APG
  • G Christian Braun
    34.3 MPG 12.4 PPG 4.1 RPG 2.4 APG
  • F Aaron Gordon
    29.0 MPG 11.0 PPG 5.0 RPG 2.1 APG
  • F Cameron Johnson
    28.4 MPG 12.1 PPG 3.9 RPG 1.9 APG
Key Bench
  • G-F DeMar DeRozan
    23.6 MPG 10.0 PPG 2.0 RPG 3.0 APG
  • F Trevon Brazile
    19.6 MPG 7.1 PPG 5.6 RPG 0.5 APG
  • F Spencer Jones
    19.0 MPG 5.3 PPG 2.3 RPG 0.3 APG

OptimaGoal power & pace ratings

Full NBA power ratings

Neutral-court net point rating and 48-minute tempo rank across all 30 NBA franchises.

New Orleans Pelicans

#24 of 30
Net rating -3.7 30d: -0.3
Pace: -0.7 (#9 of 30)

Denver Nuggets

#5 of 30
Net rating +5.4 30d: +3.6
Pace: -1.8 (#18 of 30)

OptimaGoal tactical & efficiency profile (0–100)

Original 0–100 indices built from each team's last 10 played games before tip-off.

New Orleans Pelicans

Net 28
Shot quality (TS%) 55
3PT volume & accuracy 29
Ball security & passing 24
Rebounding control 40
Defensive disruption 39

ORtg 109.9 · DRtg 117.8 · Net -7.9 · TS 58.5%

Denver Nuggets

Net 53
Shot quality (TS%) 59
3PT volume & accuracy 45
Ball security & passing 54
Rebounding control 39
Defensive disruption 52

ORtg 114.5 · DRtg 113.3 · Net +1.2 · TS 59.1%

New Orleans Pelicans · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 4W actual vs 3.6W expected (12 GP)
Denver Nuggets · Record vs point differential W-L record aligned with point differential 6W actual vs 5.4W expected (10 GP)

Halftime splits & clutch profile

Game-state outcomes and half-by-half scoring share over the last 15 games.

New Orleans Pelicans

Win rate when leading at HT 3/5 (60%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/10 (20%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 56.9 (47.4%) 2H: 63.3 (52.6%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-3 10+ pt margins: 3-5

Denver Nuggets

Win rate when leading at HT 5/8 (62%)
Comeback wins when trailing at HT 2/6 (33%)
Scoring split (1H vs 2H)
1H: 57.0 (51.1%) 2H: 54.6 (48.9%)
Clutch (≤5 pts / OT): 2-1 10+ pt margins: 4-6

Scoring environment and threshold hit counts across the last 10 games.

NOPDEN
Points scored / game 116.4 114.5
Points allowed / game 124.8 113.3
Average game total 241.2 227.8
Average 1st-half total 116.6 114.9
Possessions / 48 min 102.7 99.0
Games with 220+ pts 9/10 6/10
Games with 230+ pts 6/10 5/10
Games with 240+ pts 5/10 4/10
Scored 115+ pts 6/10 4/10

Schedule density & travel spot

Rest days, multi-game compression and current home/road stretch entering tip-off.

New Orleans Pelicans

0 days (Back-to-back)
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Homestand · Game 2

Denver Nuggets

2 days rest
2 in 4 nights 3 in 6 nights Road trip · Game 4

Primary offensive threats

Available rotation leaders by scoring and shot share over the last 10 games.

New Orleans Pelicans

  • #1 Zion Williamson F 18.6% pts share
    21.6 PPG · 5.4 RPG · 2.7 APG · 0.2 3PM 13.9% FGA
  • #2 Jeremiah Fears G 14.4% pts share
    16.8 PPG · 5.1 RPG · 5.7 APG · 1.2 3PM 16.5% FGA
  • #3 Trey Murphy III F 14.7% pts share
    17.1 PPG · 4.7 RPG · 4.0 APG · 2.4 3PM 13.5% FGA

Denver Nuggets

  • #1 Nikola Jokić C 20.5% pts share
    23.5 PPG · 10.8 RPG · 9.0 APG · 1.0 3PM 21.5% FGA
  • #2 Jamal Murray G 22.9% pts share
    26.2 PPG · 5.0 RPG · 5.9 APG · 4.0 3PM 20.0% FGA
  • #3 Christian Braun G 10.8% pts share
    12.4 PPG · 4.1 RPG · 2.4 APG · 1.6 3PM 11.6% FGA

Last five games

New Orleans Pelicans

  • L 111-145 vs Brooklyn Nets (H) 12 Nov
  • L 87-138 at Golden State Warriors (A) 10 Nov
  • L 123-139 at LA Clippers (A) 9 Nov
  • L 109-115 vs Minnesota Timberwolves (H) 7 Nov
  • W 120-113 vs Utah Jazz (H) 5 Nov

Denver Nuggets

  • W 123-118 at Memphis Grizzlies (A) 12 Nov
  • L 100-110 at Houston Rockets (A) 10 Nov
  • W 114-102 vs Indiana Pacers (H) 7 Nov
  • W 128-109 vs Toronto Raptors (H) 5 Nov
  • L 110-118 vs Portland Trail Blazers (H) 3 Nov

Most recent first, all games of the season, overtime included.

Last 10 head-to-head meetings

NOP · 1W DEN · 9W
Avg total pts: 235.7 NOP avg: 112.3 DEN avg: 123.4 225+ pt games: 7/10 NOP at home: 1-4
  • 28 Oct 2026 NOP 91‑104 DEN
  • 24 Oct 2026 DEN 141‑135 (OT) NOP
  • 13 Jan 2026 NOP 116‑122 DEN
  • 19 Nov 2025 NOP 118‑125 DEN
  • 29 Oct 2025 DEN 122‑88 NOP
  • 5 Feb 2025 DEN 144‑119 NOP
  • 3 Feb 2025 DEN 125‑113 NOP
  • 22 Dec 2024 NOP 129‑132 (OT) DEN
  • 15 Nov 2024 NOP 101‑94 DEN
  • 12 Jan 2024 DEN 125‑113 NOP

Season profile comparison

NOPDEN
Record 4-8 6-4
At home 3-4 3-2
On the road 1-4 3-2
Conference 12 of 15, Western Conference 9 of 15, Western Conference
Streak Lost 4 in a row –
Days of rest 0 (second night of a back-to-back) 2
Our team rating #25 of 30 #5 of 30
Pace #9 of 30 #18 of 30

Western Conference standings

Full NBA standings
# Team W L PCT GB Home Road L10 Streak
1 Los Angeles Lakers 11 2 .846 – 5-1 6-1 8-2 W7
2 San Antonio Spurs 10 2 .833 0.5 4-2 6-0 10-0 W10
3 Houston Rockets 9 3 .750 1.5 6-1 3-2 7-3 W2
4 Minnesota Timberwolves 9 3 .750 1.5 5-1 4-2 7-3 W5
5 Portland Trail Blazers 8 3 .727 2.0 3-2 5-1 7-3 W2
6 Golden State Warriors 8 4 .667 2.5 6-1 2-3 8-2 L1
7 Oklahoma City Thunder 8 4 .667 2.5 5-0 3-4 6-4 L2
8 Memphis Grizzlies 7 4 .636 3.0 2-4 5-0 6-4 L1
9 Denver Nuggets 6 4 .600 3.5 3-2 3-2 6-4 W1
10 Dallas Mavericks 7 5 .583 3.5 5-2 2-3 6-4 L1
11 Phoenix Suns 5 6 .455 5.0 5-3 0-3 5-5 W2
12 New Orleans Pelicans 4 8 .333 6.5 3-4 1-4 4-6 L4
13 LA Clippers 2 8 .200 7.5 2-3 0-5 2-8 L1
14 Sacramento Kings 1 10 .091 9.0 0-6 1-4 1-9 L4
15 Utah Jazz 1 11 .083 9.5 1-6 0-5 0-10 L10

Solid cut lines mark Top 6 (direct Play-offs) and Top 10 (Play-in Tournament).

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