Serie A · Matchday 9

Fiorentina vs Atalanta Prediction, Match Preview & Stats

Fiorentina

Atalanta

Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze

Our picks

Free picks

Result Free pick Fiorentina win

Model probability Fiorentina 87% Draw 72% Atalanta 73%
Double chance Free pick Fiorentina or Atalanta (12)

Model probability Fiorentina / Draw 90% Fiorentina / Atalanta 98% Draw / Atalanta 97%
Both teams to score Free pick Yes

Model probability 42%
More corners Free pick Fiorentina

Model probability Fiorentina 67% Level 13% Atalanta 49%
Yellow cards Free pick Around the league average(league 3.2)

Model probability Over 3.5 94%Over 4.5 35%Over 5.5 19%
Corners Free pick Above the league average(league 9.4)

Model probability Over 8.5 96%Over 9.5 68%Over 10.5 11%
Over 2.5 goals

Model probability 38%

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Why this pick?

Our model sides with Fiorentina, above all because the game is at the Franchi and because Atalanta's recent attacking output — shots, big chances, time in the box — points to an open contest rather than a cagey one. The strongest argument the other way is our strength rating: Atalanta sit above the Serie A average there, while Fiorentina are 18th with four points. What holds the call together is that no single thread settles it; Fiorentina get into the opposition box clearly more than the league norm, and the game looks finely balanced. It is a narrow call.

Both teams to score: We also expect both teams to score, and with some conviction: the goal model reads an open matchup, Atalanta create above the league average and Fiorentina get into the box clearly more than most sides. Atalanta's recent scoring and conceding point the same way.

Match summary

Fiorentina vs Atalanta is the Matchday 9 fixture in Serie A, played on Thursday 29 October 2026 at the Stadio Artemio Franchi, and our model leans towards a Fiorentina win, with Fiorentina or Atalanta to win, no draw, as the double chance.

Latest news

All news

FiorentinaAtalanta

Atalanta hit by Scamacca injury in growing emergency

Atalanta have lost striker Scamacca to injury, adding to Sarri's absences, and the club has set out his recovery time.

27 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: Corriere dello Sport
Fiorentina lose Pongracic to muscle injury

Pongracic has suffered a muscle lesion and will return after the international break, leaving Fiorentina short in defence before facing Atalanta.

27 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: ANSA
Fiorentina lose Pongracic to hamstring injury

Pongracic has suffered a lesion to his biceps femoris muscle and will be unavailable to Vanoli, starting with the match against Atalanta.

27 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: Corriere dello Sport
Sarri admits substituting De Ketelaere was a mistake

Atalanta coach Maurizio Sarri said taking Charles De Ketelaere off was not the right call in hindsight. De Ketelaere had a hand in two goals before the substitution, and Sarri insists the club still believes in him.

26 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: HLN

6 more news items

Atalanta crisis deepens after draw with Frosinone

Atalanta failed to steady the club three days after their Conference League loss to Ajax, drawing with Frosinone. Italian media and the club's own supporters criticised Maurizio Sarri's side afterwards.

26 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: Voetbal International
Inter complete another comeback against tired Fiorentina

Inter overturned the deficit for the fourth time this season in their win over Fiorentina. The visitors' aim is to pull away from the relegation zone.

26 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: Corriere dello Sport
Frosinone and Atalanta draw after a 4-4

Atalanta drew 4-4 with Frosinone. Schmid and Krstovic each scored twice, Ederson added a penalty, while Calò and Elmas scored for the hosts.

25 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: ANSA
Alvini frustrated as Frosinone score four but draw with Atalanta

Frosinone coach Alvini said scoring four goals without winning left him angry after the draw against Atalanta. He insisted his side will not change how they defend and that the will to decide matches is what matters.

25 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: ANSA
Sarri shares fans' disappointment after Atalanta defeat

The coach said the supporters' disappointment is also felt by the team, adding that his side reacted well despite conceding a goal after 27 seconds.

25 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: ANSA
Vanoli defends Fiorentina display after Inter defeat

The Fiorentina coach said his side played an excellent match apart from the penalty incident in the loss to Inter. He also said he is sorry he has to act as a psychologist for Beto.

25 Oct 2026 AI summary Source: Corriere dello Sport

Form guide

Fiorentina

L 1-2 at Inter (A) Serie A · 25 Oct
L 1-3 vs Como (H) Serie A · 18 Oct
L 1-2 at Genoa (A) Serie A · 10 Oct
D 1-1 vs Napoli (H) Serie A · 20 Sep
W 3-0 vs Pisa (H) Coppa Italia · 15 Sep

Atalanta

D 4-4 vs Frosinone (H) Serie A · 25 Oct
L 0-2 at Ajax (A) Conference League · 22 Oct
L 2-3 at Milan (A) Serie A · 18 Oct
W 3-1 vs Pafos FC (H) Conference League · 15 Oct
W 3-1 vs Venezia (H) Serie A · 12 Oct

Last five competitive matches before kick-off, all competitions, results after 90 minutes.

Attack and defence ratings

FiorentinaAtalanta

Attack 58 79 1.1 goals per match this season1.8 goals per match this season

Defence 47 63 2.4 conceded per match this season1.9 conceded per match this season

0 to 100 against this season's Serie A clubs (100 = best). The rating is our model's long-run strength before this match: it uses the last three years and counts recent matches most, so a few results do not move it at once. Under each rating: this season's actual goals per match.

1812Elo #118 Elo rating 1932Elo #50

Head-to-head

18Fiorentina wins

9draws

10Atalanta wins

37 meetings since 2010, results after 90 minutes.

22 May 2026 · Serie A Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta
30 Nov 2025 · Serie A Atalanta 2-0 Fiorentina
30 Mar 2025 · Serie A Fiorentina 1-0 Atalanta
15 Sep 2024 · Serie A Atalanta 3-2 Fiorentina
2 Jun 2024 · Serie A Atalanta 2-3 Fiorentina

Serie A so far

Serie A records before the match
#	Team	P	W	D	L	Goals	GD	Pts
11	Atalanta	8	3	1	4	14:15	-1	10
18	Fiorentina	8	1	1	6	9:19	-10	4

Positions in our table of 20 clubs, before kick-off. Full table

Match facts

Competition: Serie A, Matchday 9
Kick-off: Thursday 29 October 2026, 19:45 UTC
Venue: Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze
Since last match: Fiorentina: 4 days (Serie A)
Atalanta: 4 days (Serie A)
Next match: Fiorentina: 3 days (Serie A) later
Atalanta: 4 days (Serie A) later

Questions and answers

Fiorentina vs Atalanta prediction: who will win?

Our model picks Fiorentina to win, and it is a narrow call. The main reason is home advantage. Our double chance pick is Fiorentina or Atalanta (no draw).

What time is Fiorentina vs Atalanta and where is it played?

Fiorentina vs Atalanta kicks off at 19:45 UK time (19:45 UTC) on Thursday 29 October 2026 at Stadio Artemio Franchi, Firenze. It is a Serie A match (Matchday 9).

Will both teams score in Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

Yes: our model expects both teams to score, mainly because of recent attacking play (shots and chances). We only give this pick when our model's view is clear.

What is the recent form of Fiorentina and Atalanta?

Fiorentina have 1 win, 1 draw and 3 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and have lost their last 3. Atalanta have 2 wins, 1 draw and 2 defeats in their last 5 matches in all competitions, and are without a win in 3.

What is the head-to-head record between Fiorentina and Atalanta?

Fiorentina and Atalanta have met 37 times in our records since 2010: Fiorentina won 18, Atalanta won 10 and 9 ended level. Last meeting: 2026-05-22, Fiorentina 1-1 Atalanta.

Who is the referee for Fiorentina vs Atalanta?

The referee is Federico La Penna. In the last 50 matches we have on record, Federico La Penna has averaged 4.1 yellow cards per match.